Global Ag News for Feb 8.24

TOP HEADLINES

January Was Warmest on Record After World’s Hottest Year in 2023

Last month’s temperatures were almost 1.7C above the pre-industrial average, as scientists warn 2024 could be even warmer than 2023.

Last month was the hottest January on record, with global temperatures 1.66C above the average during pre-industrial times, according to a monthly report by Europe’s Earth observation agency Copernicus.

It was the eighth consecutive month with record-high monthly temperatures, according to the report. Global temperatures over the past 12 months were the highest ever recorded — 1.52C above the average between 1850 and 1900.

“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said in a statement. Thermometer readings were well above the average of the past three decades in southern Europe, eastern Canada, northwestern Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.

2023 was the hottest year on record, and experts are already predicting 2024 will beat 2023’s extremely high temperatures. That’s due to a combination of more planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere and El Niño, a cyclical phenomenon that alters ocean circulation and weather patterns, leading to more heat and drought in many latitudes.

El Niño began to weaken in the equatorial Pacific, where it originates, Copernicus said. But temperatures over the oceans (marine air temperatures) in general remain at an unusually high level. The average global sea surface temperature reached a monthly record in January and daily sea temperatures have kept rising in early February, surpassing previous absolute records reported in August.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 8 1/4 in SRW, down 7 1/4 in HRW, down 4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 0.46.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 14 in HRW, down 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 10; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $7.20; Soyoil up 2.50.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 11 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is down 15 1/2; Soybeans down 32; Soymeal down $18.70; Soyoil up 1.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 5.5% in SRW, down 4.8% in HRW, down 4.3% in HRS; Corn is down 8.2%; Soybeans down 8.0%; Soymeal down 9.4%; Soyoil down 1.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal down 16; Soyoil up 18; Palm oil up 44; Corn unchanged — Malaysian Palm is up 1.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.03%) at 3878.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 772 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 6 Corn; 468 Soybeans; 125 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 104 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 7 were: SRW Wheat down 7,078 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,122, Corn down 3,952, Soybeans down 3,875, Soymeal down 2,009, Soyoil down 3,996.

Brazil: Scattered showers should continue across central Brazil for the next week. Southern areas may have to wait until early next week for more widespread showers to move in, but they could be significant when they do. Rain showers are expected to be of normal intensity across the central, allowing for a normal pace of field work in most areas. Some areas could be too wet, though.

Argentina: A front should finally bring good showers to much of the country later this week and weekend while temperatures will fall back to normal as well. Another front moves through early next week with good showers as well. The potentially heavy rainfall is needed to turn around crop conditions after more than two weeks of dry conditions and a week of 100-degree heat.

Europe: Soil moisture continues to fall for vegetative wheat in Spain and Italy. However, a storm system will move through southern areas starting Thursday with more impulses through next week which will be helpful for reversing the dryness trend. Temperatures will continue to be warm with no threat of an arctic freeze.

Australia: Recent heavy rain over New South Wales eased rainfall deficits, but drier weather elsewhere in the country is unfavorable for cotton and sorghum that are mostly filling. Some isolated showers will move through northeastern growing areas at times over the next week.

Northern Plains: A storm system will move through Wednesday and Thursday with a mix of rain and snow. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to ease some of the recent dryness in the region. Temperatures behind the system will stay mild but we could see a clipper bringing some colder air later next week.

Central/Southern Plains: A system will move through on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers and another will move through southern areas this weekend that could have a mix of heavy rain and snow.

Midwest: It continues to be very warm across the region the next couple of days. A system will go through Thursday with scattered showers and another will move across southern areas this weekend. The latter storm could bring a mix of rain and snow to some areas. Temperatures behind that system will decrease, but still stay seasonably mild. A clipper may come through later next week with a shot of colder air.

Delta: Soil moisture is much improved and drought continues to decrease in the region. Water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers are also much higher, increasing transportation. Scattered showers will move through late week and another storm could bring heavy precipitation over the weekend.

The player sheet for Feb. 7 had funds: net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, buyers of 6,000 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 88,800 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States and China
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
• DURUM WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of durum wheat in an international tender.
• SOYMEAL PURCHASE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased about 50,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from Brazil in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 136,321 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is looking to buy a total of 136,321 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Feb. 8.

 

 

TODAY

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Rise 2.1% to 24.779M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 24.478 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.033m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.021m

Brazil January Agriculture Exports by Volume: MDIC

• Soybean exports more than tripled from last year
• Cotton exports rose 102% y/y

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 7.30 Million Tns In February Versus 7.55 Million Tns In Same Month A Year Ago- Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 7.30 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 7.55 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 1.75 MILLION TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.28 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 773,940 TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 1.94 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 497,953 TNS IN FEBRUARY VERSUS 522,988 TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

Brazil soybean production slightly up despite struggling Mato Grosso and Paraná crops – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2023/24 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 149.7 [142.5–157.1] MILLION TONS, UP <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

As mostly warm/dry conditions continue to help facilitate harvest activities across key producing areas of the Central West and the South, 2023/24 Brazil soybean production is increased fractionally to 149.7 [142.5–157.1] million tons. Our current median estimate is 7.3 million tons below the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)’s 157 million tons, which assumes soybean sowings at 45.6 million hectares and national level yield of 3.44 tons per hectare (tph) (vs. LSEG Ag Research’s 46 million hectares and 3.25 tph, respectively). Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has recently pegged soy production and area at 155.3 million tons and 45.3 million hectares, respectively.

Mixed weather conditions were depicted across Brazil’s major corn and soy producing areas during late January/early February. Over the past two weeks, temperatures throughout the country were mostly above average, except in the South where rather cool weather was prevalent. Abnormal dryness continued across the Central-West and the South, while most of the upper Southeast regions received some above average precipitation. Overall the weather conditions were favorable for both first crop corn/soybean harvests and the second crop safrinha corn sowings, although poor soil moisture conditions remain a threat to late season crop development. Exacerbating soil moisture deficits for areas in grain fill (for first crop corn)/pod fill (for soybeans) and vegetative development (for second crop corn) should continue to warrant attention.

As of 03 February, Brazil’s soybeans are 14% harvested, ahead of last year’s 8.9% and the four-year average as well, thanks to recent warm and dry weather. This is impressive given severe delays that took place earlier in the season, and if the pace keeps up it will significantly lower the second crop safrinha corn’s yield risks as second corn is planted after soybeans are harvested. Satellite imagery continues to show contrasting conditions across core soy areas, with near record low vegetation density in Mato Grosso and Paraná, the top two soy producing states of Brazil, but near to above historical median levels in most of the rest of the major crop regions. Moving forward, the Southeast will likely continue to receive overall above average rains, but the rest of the country is expected to remain warm and dry, which should help promote harvest while hindering late season crop growth.

BrasilAgro Cuts Corn Area Forecast on Weak Margins

Crop producer BrasilAgro reduced its estimates for corn planted area due to price volatility and weak margins, company says in quarterly earnings release.

• Total planted area to be 7% lower than initial forecast
• Irregular rainfall in December, January affected some crops, reducing productivity
• El Niño might persist through first half of the year, which could reduce rainfall and hurt corn, soybean yields

Abundant rain seen bringing relief to Argentina’s soybean, corn crops

Argentina’s main farmland will receive significant rainfall over the next few days, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BdeC) announced on Wednesday, adding this should boost the country’s current soybean and corn crops.

In recent weeks, Argentina’s top agricultural areas have experienced mostly dry conditions and high temperatures during the Southern Hemisphere summer.

The South American farming powerhouse is a top global supplier of processed soybeans, corn and wheat, and proceeds from the key cash crops are a major source of hard currency for the central bank’s depleted foreign reserves.

Heavy rains late last year boosted the country’s expected grains production, but then drier and hotter conditions hit during the second half of January.

BdeC expects the 2023/24 harvesting season to yield 52.5 million metric tons of soybeans and 56.5 million tons of corn.

The grains exchange noted in its weekly weather report that over the next seven days it sees most of Argentina’s Pampas farmland as well as a large swath of farms in neighboring Uruguay receiving “between abundant and very abundant” rainfall of between 25-100 millimeters.

Along with the expected rains, temperatures in the Pampa region are expected to dip from above average levels to normal temperatures typical for the summer, according to the report.

Last week, farmers finished planting the current soybean crop while corn planting is in its final stages.  The harvesting of both crops is set to begin in April.

China Increases Edible Oil Demand Forecast on Catering Recovery

China boosted its forecast for edible oil demand by 700,000 tons to 37.83 million tons in 2023-24 as government data show a better-than-expected recovery in the catering industry, according to a monthly report from the agriculture ministry published Thursday.

• That means the country’s edible oil surplus will narrow to 810,000 tons from a January estimate of 1.5 million tons, the China Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates show
• The cotton-import forecast was raised by 150,000 tons to 2 million tons
• Supply and demand for corn, soybeans and sugar were unchanged
• The report sees improving profits from hog breeding in the second quarter from a year earlier, which is likely to boost demand for corn-based feed

Ukraine soybean exports increase 17% to 1.9 mln T so far in 2023/24

Ukrainian soybean exports have risen 17% year-on-year to 1.9 million metric tons in the first five months of the 2023/24 season thanks to favourable prices, analyst APK-Inform said on Wednesday.

The volume of exports is the second largest in Ukraine’s history after the country sold 2.1 million tons abroad in the September-January 2019/20 marketing season.

“The high export rates are explained primarily by the attractive price of Ukrainian soybeans on the global market,” the consultancy said in a report.

APK-Inform said the increase was mainly achieved due to sales to Egypt, which increased purchases of Ukrainian soybeans to a record 547,000 tons.

APK-Inform said Ukraine, a traditional exporter of oilseeds and vegetable oils, harvested 4.95 million tons of soybeans in 2023.

Australia Posts Warmest Winter on Record as Climate Fears Grow

Australia recorded its warmest winter on record, according to a notice from the Bureau of Meteorology.

• 2023 was the eighth-warmest year on record, with the national mean temperature 0.98 C warmer than the 1961–1990 average
• National mean temperature during winter was 1.53C above the 1961–1990 average
• Average rainfall was 1.6% above the 1961–1990 average at 473.7 mm
• Australia experienced a La Niña at the start of 2023, with an El Niño and a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole developing in early spring
• At the end of the year, a positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode developed
• NOTE: Globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record, with record warm oceans since April and record low Antarctic sea ice extent for much of the year

US-Mexico GM corn dispute to be resolved this year -chief agricultural negotiator

U.S. Chief Agricultural Negotiator Doug McKalip said at a conference of state agricultural directors on Wednesday that he expects the country’s trade dispute with Mexico over genetically modified corn to be resolved by the end of this year.

US Farmers Set to See Biggest Income Slump Since 2006 This Year

• USDA sees net income at $116.1 billion, below 20-year average
• The estimate is the agency’s first for the calendar year

US farmers are poised to see the biggest hit to their income since 2006 this year as a slump in agriculture markets takes its toll.

Net farm income is forecast to fall about 26% in 2024 to $116.1 billion, according to US Department of Agriculture data released Wednesday. If the estimate holds, that would mark the biggest year-over-year drop since 2006.

The outlook is the agency’s first for the calendar year and comes after net farm income already fell about 16% in 2023. Prices for major crops have slumped amid plentiful supplies. And at the same time, American farmers have started to lose their dominance in global grain shipping as Brazil strengthens its position.

The expected decline for income in 2024 puts profits below the 20-year average of $118.2 billion, according to the USDA.

Direct government farm payments are expected to drop almost 16% from last year. Cash receipts are also seen decreasing, while total production expenses are expected to rise 3.8%.

US court cancels approvals for widely used dicamba weed killers

A U.S. court has nullified the government’s latest approvals of certain agricultural weed killers sold by Bayer and Syngenta, fueling uncertainty among farmers who spray the products on soybeans and cotton genetically engineered to resist them.

Environmental activists cheered the court for halting use of the dicamba-based herbicides, which are known to drift away and damage crops that cannot tolerate the chemical.

Some farm groups and agribusinesses said the ruling, if enforced by the federal government, risks hurting farmers financially and reducing options for fighting weeds that are increasingly developing resistance to a limited number of herbicides.

U.S. District Court Judge David Bury in Arizona this week vacated the Environmental Protection Agency’s registrations of dicamba-based weed killers from 2020, saying the agency violated procedures mandating public input. The ruling affects Bayer’s XtendiMax, BASF’s Enginia and Sygnenta’s Tavium, commonly used herbicides on U.S. farms.

Bayer soybeans that resist dicamba-based herbicide are the No. 2-most planted soybeans in the United States.

The companies said they disagreed with the ruling and were waiting for direction from the EPA. The EPA said it was reviewing the decision.

“Most soybean and cotton farmers have made seed and chemistry purchase decisions and, in some cases, are preparing to plant their 2024 crop in the coming weeks,” BASF said. “This order may threaten the livelihoods of soybean and cotton farmers who rely on over-the-top dicamba to control resistant weeds.”

The ruling bars farmers from spraying the dicamba products in the upcoming growing season unless the EPA allows already-shipped batches to be used, said Meredith Stevenson, staff attorney for the Center for Food Safety. The center called the decision “a vital victory for farmers and the environment.”

In June 2020, a U.S. appeals court blocked dicamba-based herbicide sales and ruled the EPA understated risks related to its use. The EPA, under former President Donald Trump, subsequently said farmers could use their existing supplies before it eventually reauthorized use again with new restrictions in October 2020. Under President Joe Biden, the agency in December 2021 questioned whether dicamba weedkillers could be sprayed safely on soybeans and cotton without posing “unreasonable risks” to other crops.

Global Ammonia, Potash Prices Soften as China Contract Nears

Global ammonia remains pressured after an Indian buyer secured contractual supplies at $350 a metric ton and the Tampa ammonia price for February fell $80/mt from January. Corn Belt potash prices were flat to lower, while Brazil potash continues to soften, with China’s long-term contract set to test a sub-$300/mt floor vs. the last $307 agreement.

Inland Urea, Ammonium Sulfate Strengthen

Though New Orleans (NOLA) urea trades were reported at the lower end of the previous week’s business, inland urea continued to climb, with higher prices confirmed in the Midwest, California, the Pacific Northwest and western Canada. Producers also announced higher published prices for ammonium sulfate in the western and eastern US, led by a $15-$25 a short ton (st) hike in pricing from AdvanSix at Hopewell, Virginia on Feb. 5. Ammonia remained under pressure, with slightly lower spring offers confirmed in the Corn Belt and Pacific Northwest. Phosphates were flat at NOLA but up in western Canada, with post-fill potash prices also seeing an increase in Canada and the western US.

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.