Global Ag News for Feb 8.24
Florida 2024 Orange Production Estimate at 19.8 Mln Boxes: USDA
The US Department of Agriculture announces latest estimates of US orange crop on its website.
- Florida orange production cut by 700,000 boxes
- US total cut by 700,000 boxes to 66.55m
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are up 1/2 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $4.40; Soyoil down 0.34.
For the week so far wheat prices are down 10 in SRW, down 25 1/2 in HRW, down 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 11 1/4; Soybeans up 1/4; Soymeal down $12.70; Soyoil up 3.02.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 1/4 in SRW, down 25 1/2 in HRW, down 11 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 18; Soybeans down 38 1/4; Soymeal down $25.60; Soyoil up 1.58.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 6.1% in SRW, down 6.6% in HRW, down 5.8% in HRS; Corn is down 8.4%; Soybeans down 8.1%; Soymeal down 10.9%; Soyoil down 0.2%.
Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 10 ringgit (+0.26%) at 3884. China markets are close for holiday through the 17th.
There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 772 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 6 Corn; 468 Soybeans; 125 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 104 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 8 were: SRW Wheat down 7,280 contracts, HRW Wheat up 932, Corn down 5,703, Soybeans up 3,653, Soymeal up 3,539, Soyoil down 9,698.
Brazil: Scattered showers should continue across central Brazil through the weekend, becoming more isolated next week. Southern areas may have to wait until early next week for more widespread showers to move in, but they could be significant when they do as several fronts will move into the south next week. Central areas are still running significant rainfall deficits and soil moisture is not favorable for the safrinha corn crop that is being planted. Heavy rain needs to fall over the next two months to produce a good crop.
Argentina: A front is finally bringing good showers to much of the country through the weekend while temperatures will fall back to normal as well. Another front moves through early next week with good showers and could linger in the country for a bit next week as well. The potential for heavy rainfall is needed to turn around crop conditions after more than two weeks of dry conditions and a week of 100-degree heat.
Australia: Recent heavy rain over New South Wales eased rainfall deficits, but drier weather elsewhere in the country is unfavorable for cotton and sorghum that are mostly filling. Some isolated showers will move through northeastern growing areas at times over the next week. Western areas could see some showers later next week.
Northern Plains: A storm system is bringing a mix of rain and snow to the region that is turning to all snow Thursday as the system passes by. Waves of isolated showers will be possible through next week. Recent and forecast precipitation will help to ease some of the recent dryness in the region. Temperatures behind the system will stay mild but we could see a clipper bringing some colder air later next week.
Central/Southern Plains: A system is exiting the region Thursday that brought only isolated showers. A few more waves to the storm will move showers through the region through the weekend, with heavier rain and snow potential on Sunday across the south. Temperatures will fall behind the system but stay closer to normal outside of where the snow falls.
Midwest: A system will go through Thursday with scattered showers, another will move across southern areas this weekend, and a third could bring showers to the far south Sunday and Monday as a mix of rain and snow. Temperatures behind that system will decrease, but still stay seasonably mild. A clipper may come through later next week with a shot of colder air.
Delta: Soil moisture is much improved and drought continues to decrease in the region. Water levels along the Mississippi River and local rivers are also much higher, increasing transportation. A front stalling out in the region will develop showers through Saturday with a system moving along it with more widespread heavier rain on Sunday.
The player sheet for Feb. 8 had funds: net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 3,000 soyoil.
- CORN SALE: Exporters sold an estimated 200,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Colombia for 2023/2024 delivery, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
- WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 136,321 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada, and Australia in a regular tender.
- WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
- BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
- RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 88,800 metric tons of rice to be sourced from the United States and China.
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country
The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- Top buyer of soybeans: China with 308k tons
- Top buyer of corn: Unknown Buyers with 341k tons
- Top buyer of wheat: South Korea with 88k tons
US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country
The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Feb. 1, according to data on the USDA’s website.
- China bought 10.9k tons of the 39.2k tons of pork sold in the week
- South Korea led in beef purchases
Brazil 2023-24 Soybean Crop Seen at 149.4M Tons: Conab
Output est. cut from 155.27m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.
- Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 150.4m tons
- Yield seen lower at 3,314 kg/ha vs 3,431 kg/ha last month
- Area planted lowered to 45.089m ha vs 45.26m ha last month
- Corn production est. cut to 113.7m tons vs 117.6m tons
Argentina Soy Condition Weakens From Heat Wave, But Rains Coming
A heat wave and dryness have led soy and corn plants on the Pampas crop belt to deteriorate, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.
- 78% of soy is in fair, good or excellent condition, down from 86% last week and 92% the week before that
- “Rains forecast for the next few days will be key to sustaining plants”
- Rains will “reactivate” in February as temperatures fall off highs, though there will also be several storms, according to a separate grain exchange weather report
- NOTE: February is a key month for setting the yield potential of Argentine soy and corn plants
India Halves Wheat Stockpile Limits for Traders, Big Retailers
Indian government reduced the stock limits on wheat for traders and big chain retailers to 500 tons from 1,000 tons, according to a statement from the Ministry of Consumer Affairs.
- The government also cut stock limit for wheat processors
- All wheat stocking entities will have to register on the wheat stock limit portal and update stock position every Friday
- “Officials of central and state governments will be closely monitoring enforcement of these stock limits to ensure that no artificial scarcity of wheat is created in the country,” according to the statement
US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Increase: USDA
Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 598k tons in the week ending Feb. 3 from 342k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.
- Barge shipments of corn rose 35.7% from the previous week
- Soybean shipments up 82% w/w
- St. Louis barge rates were $14.08 per short ton, an increase of $0.28 from the previous week
El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024
The La Nina weather pattern characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean could emerge in the second half of 2024, following a strong El Nino year, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday.
The pattern typically brings higher precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia and India and drier weather to grain and oilseed producing regions of the Americas.
“Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Nina to follow strong El Nino events,” the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said.
The current El Nino weather pattern, which caused hot and dry weather in Asia and heavier than usual rains in parts of the Americas, is likely to give way to the neutral conditions during April-June 2024, the CPC said.
CPC said in its monthly forecast there is a 55% chance that La Niña conditions develop between June and August.
“La Nina is likely to affect the production of wheat and corn in the US, and soybean and corn in Latin America including Brazil,” Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI said.
Last year India, the world’s biggest rice supplier, restricted exports of the staple following a poor monsoon, while wheat output in No. 2 exporter Australia took a hit. Palm oil plantations and rice farms in Southeast Asia received less than normal rains.
“The development of La Nina is beneficial for the Indian monsoon. Typically, the monsoon delivers abundant rainfall during La Nina years,” said an official with India Meteorological Department.
The June-September monsoon, which is vital for India’s $3 trillion economy, brings nearly 70% of the rain the country needs to water crops and replenish reservoirs and aquifers.
Russian Agency Enables 5 Brazilian Beef, Poultry Units: Ministry
Brazilian Agriculture Ministry announces the authorization of five more plants for exporting beef and poultry to Russia in a statement.
- Decision was communicated by the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance of the Russian Federation (Rosselkhoznadzor) and is the result of an audit carried out in Brazil, concluded in December 2023
- The new authorization includes the expansion of the production activities of some units, including the slaughter and deboning of birds, production of poultry by-products and fats, and production of animal flour
- Units that already had licenses to export beef had their capacities expanded, according to the ministry
- In 2023, beef and poultry exports to Russia from Brazil reached $306m, which corresponds to 24% of total Brazilian exports to this market, according to ministry data
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