Global Ag News for Feb 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Australia’s wheat harvest around 2 million tons bigger than expected

Australia has produced around 2 million metric tons more wheat in the 2024/25 season than was estimated during the harvest, easing concerns that global supplies will tighten and exerting downward pressure on prices, analysts said.

Australia is the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter. Benchmark Chicago wheat futures have struggled to rise much from a four-year low reached last year due to ample supply.

Four analysts polled by Reuters said they had lifted their harvest estimates by between 1 million and 3 million metric tons once the full crop was in.

Their estimates now range from 32 million tons to 35.5 million tons, up from 29 million-34.5 million they predicted in November. Their estimates are all above the Australian government’s projection of 31.9 million tons issued in December.

Yields in Western Australia, one of the country’s biggest cropping regions, massively exceeded expectations, the analysts said.

Not much rain fell in Western Australia before and during the growing season but what rain there was came at the right times, while temperatures were benign and a decline in sheep numbers boosted the planted area, they said.

“We had Australia’s wheat exports at 22 million tons but there’s probably now an exportable surplus of 24 million tons,” said Rod Baker at Australian Crop Forecasters in Perth.

Large amounts of Australian feed wheat have been sold to markets in Southeast Asia, but exports from the country’s east have so far been slow, with farmers prioritising sales of higher-margin crops such as chickpeas, Baker said.

“Because of the bigger Aussie crop, wheat prices have dropped down to find that feed demand,” said an analyst at a major grain trader who asked not to be named as he did not have permission to talk to the media.

“I think prices will stay pretty flat,” he said.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 1/2 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, down 1 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil up 1.07.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 19 3/4 in SRW, up 21 1/2 in HRW, up 29 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans down 8 1/4; Soymeal down $3.90; Soyoil up 2.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 0.7% in SRW, up 2.8% in HRW, up 3.3% in HRS; Corn is up 3.5%; Soybeans up 3.9%; Soymeal down 3.5%; Soyoil up 18.4%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 78 ringgit (+1.82%) at 4367.

China markets remain closed for Holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of January 31 were: SRW Wheat down 10,717 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,521, Corn down 12,080, Soybeans up 1,663, Soymeal up 1,117, Soyoil down 8,183.

 

Brazil: Very heavy rainfall over the weekend in central Brazil is likely to have caused delays in soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. Showers will ease up from east to west across the region this week, offering up another window for

Argentina: It was hot and dry over the weekend and soil moisture and crop conditions likely fell again. A couple of fronts will move through southern areas through Wednesday, offering chances for some heavier rain to areas that have seen very little over the last several weeks. That should help to stabilize crop conditions, but not make for much of a turnaround. Another period of dry weather will follow the second front for late week and weekend. Some additional fronts will be possible next week, though precipitation chances are uncertain.

Northern Plains: Cold air plunged into the region over the weekend and will be hard to get rid of this month. Some streaks of snow went through, which are helpful for the drought situation, but much more is needed. The primary storm track will be to the south, but some precipitation will move through this month as well.

Central/Southern Plains: It was warm and dry this week. A cold front will drop south into the region, bringing some milder air to northern areas. A system will develop along the front on Wednesday, but most of the precipitation is forecast to the east. The same goes for another this weekend. The weather pattern will be active though, bringing through many chances for precipitation this month. Shots of cold air will move down through the region next week and if wheat areas remain uncovered by snow, it could cause further concerns with winterkill.

Midwest: Very warm conditions were noted over the weekend as well as some precipitation over the north. Another streak of snow is moving across northern areas for Monday. A system will develop along the cold front from this system on Wednesday, spreading a mix of precipitation types across the region. Cold air hanging out in the Northern Plains will eventually move into the region next week, replacing the general warmth this week.

Lower Mississippi: A system last week caused water levels to rise. An active weather pattern for February is likely to keep water levels up going into spring.

Europe: Limited showers went through the Mediterranean over the weekend, but most areas stayed dry, helping those in the northwest dry out a little bit. Very little precipitation is forecast this week, though areas around the Mediterranean may see some additional precipitation late this week and weekend. That would favor Spain, Italy, southeastern countries, as well as parts of northern Africa with needed precipitation for vegetative wheat.

Black Sea: Wheat went dormant in good condition in the west, but poor condition in the east, particularly in southwestern Russia. Showers haven’t been heavy or consistent enough to boost soil moisture. A system that moves through Monday and Tuesday should bring areas of moderate rain and snow, but much more is needed before wheat breaks dormancy this spring. Though temperatures will be much cooler next week than they had been, there are no risks of significant cold that would be a large concern for winterkill on exposed wheat.

Australia: Some isolated showers moved through southern and eastern areas this weekend, helping immature cotton and sorghum where they hit. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but generally with limited showers. Multiple areas of tropical activity continue over northern sections of Australia, but are generally not a concern for southern or eastern farming areas.

The player sheet for Jan. 31 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,500 corn, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN & SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of corn, 120,000 tons of barley and 60,000 tons of soymeal

 

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

LIVESTOCK: US Cattle Herd Shrinks to Smallest Since 1951

The US Jan. 1 herd fell 0.6% from the same time a year ago, according to the USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report.

• That’s the lowest level for Jan. 1 in 74 years
• Number of cows and heifers that have calved fell by 0.4% y/y
  • Beef cows down 0.5% y/y and milk cows were unchanged y/y
• Heifers 500+ pounds fell by 0.8% y/y
• Last year’s calf crop fell by 0.1% y/y

 

Grains Fall, Veg. Oils Rise as US Tariffs Risk Trade War

Grain futures fell while soybean oil and palm oil rose after US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China, risking trade disruptions with major buyers of American crops.

Trump carried out his threat to impose general levies of 25% on Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods starting on Tuesday. Mexico ranks as the biggest buyer of US corn and China is the world’s top soybean buyer, and any countermeasures are expected to impact global flows of agricultural products.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his country will impose 25% tariffs against C$155 billion ($106 billion) of US goods in return and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum also pledged retaliation. Beijing is said to be preparing an opening bid to negotiate with Trump, including offering more purchases of US farm products, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

 

Brazil 2024/25 Soybean Harvest 7.6% Done as of Jan. 31: Safras

Compares to 15.7% a year earlier, consultancy firm Safras & Mercado says in an emailed report.

• One week earlier, harvest was 3.9% done
• Five-year average of 11.8%

 

Brazil Farmers Harvest 10.32% Of 2024/2025 Soybean Area Versus 16.72% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 10.32% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 16.72% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices return to levels verified in March/24

Cepea, 31 –  Domestic prices of soybean continue to move down and are already operating at the lowest levels since March last year, in real terms. Decreases are attributed to the progress of the 2024/25 harvesting in Brazil, the reduction of retenciones on soy products in Argentina and to the exchange rate (USD/BRL) drop. This scenario has led purchasers of the Brazilian product to be away from closing trades. It is worth nothing that the demand for the national product may continue low in the coming days, due to the Chinese New Year, which has started on Jan. 29.

Fom January 23-30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 2.3%, to close at BRL 125.57 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 30. The average this month (up to Jan. 30) is at BRL 129.82/bag, the lowest since March/24, in real terms (IGP-DI Dec/24), downing 6.2% compared to the month before.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 2.1% from January 23-30, closing at BRL 130.99 per 60-kg bag on Jan. 30. The average in January is at BRL 134.89/bag, 4.4% smaller than in Dec/24 and the lowest since March/24, in real terms.

On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 1.7% from Jan. 23-30 in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors). The US dollar dropped 0.8% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.868 yesterday.

 

CORN/CEPEA: Sellers are away from closing deals; prices move up

Corn quotations continue increasing in Brazil, influenced by the fact that sellers are away from closing trades, since they are focused on crop activities (summer crop harvesting and second crop planting). Moreover, the demand is firm – some consumers are willing to trade, aiming to replenish inventories.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 1.2% between January 23 and 30, closing at BRL 74.79 per 60-kilo bag on Jan. 30. The monthly average is at BRL 74.14/bag, upping 5% compared to Jan/24, in real terms (IGP-DI Dec/24). On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, in the same comparison, corn values decreased 0.1% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers), but moved up 0.4% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

 

China to expand domestic corn stockpiling in northeast China, Sinograin says

China’s state stockpiler Sinograin said on Monday it plans to add new stockpiling sites in northeast China to expand purchases of domestic corn harvested in 2024.

Sinograin said it will publicize further details of the new stockpiling program at a later date that cover the provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, a top corn planting region.

 

From Space, Parched Argentine Soy Fields Are Looking Even Worse

Soybean and corn plants hit by a drought on the Argentine Pampas are in worse shape than public forecasts say, according to an analysis of satellite imagery.

Mickael Attia, a crop analyst with EarthDaily Analytics, sees the soy harvest shrinking to 45 million metric tons. That’s well below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s estimate of 49.6 million tons and other popular forecasts tracked by traders at the Rosario Board of Trade and the US Department of Agriculture.

While those prognosticators rely mainly on farmer surveys, EarthDaily interprets satellite images, converting them into a “vegetation index” that maps crop conditions. The Vancouver-based firm is also predicting 42 million tons for Argentina’s corn harvest, compared with 49 million at the Buenos Aires exchange.

“Crop vigor is already poor in half of the country,” Attia said in an email. “The rest is holding on, but for how long? February and March weather will be key.”

Attia said that rains due to fall over the next few days will probably be light, and he compared the progress of the 2025 season to 2018, a drought year that frazzled crops.

Argentina’s soy is mainly collected in the second quarter and is then processed by trading houses, making it the world’s No. 1 supplier of soy meal and soy oil. It is No. 3 in corn, with two crops that stretch out fieldwork from March to August.

Farmers are expected to trade the harvests quickly to take advantage of temporary cuts to export taxes — until June — a policy implemented by President Javier Milei to quickly beef up central bank dollar reserves.

 

Brazil’s Top Coffee Co-Op Is Branching Out Into Soy and Corn

The largest coffee co-operative in the world’s biggest producer is diversifying into other commodities at a time when its main business is facing extreme price volatility.

Brazil’s Cooperativa Regional de Cafeicultores em Guaxupe Ltda. will source soybeans and corn in hopes that the expansion will aid local farmers as well as strengthen the group’s balance sheet.

Cooxupé, as the group is known, entered into a joint venture with local trader Agrobom Comercio e Exportacao de Cereais Ltda. to source grains and oilseeds from affiliated farmers in the states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo. While details on ownership of the jointly held business weren’t released, Cooxupé will be the majority shareholder, President Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo told journalists Friday.

That’s set to add crucial new revenue in a moment when the group’s core business has turned challenging due to heightened coffee price volatility and elevated costs of hedging. Arabica coffee futures have surged to a record, elevating the cost of doing business as exporters and co-operatives are being required more collateral from brokers managing their positions.

“We are living in a moment that I would never have imagined, in all my time in the cooperative and in my life, that there would be such a great need for credit as the one we are now experiencing,” Melo said, while stressing that the co-operative’s financial situation is solid.

Agrobom last year sourced and exported 120,000 metric tons of soybeans and corn, commercial director Marco Castelli said. Volumes could rise 10% to 20% in 2025 as the partnership with Cooxupé means they can reach more farmers, he added.

Cooxupé’s area of operation includes some of the largest coffee producing regions in Brazil, and many farmers in the area combine production of the arabica bean with soy and corn plantations, Melo said.

 

China Deepens Brazil Ties as Crop Export Terminal to Open

China is deepening ties with agriculture powerhouse Brazil, with a unit of the Asian nation’s largest food company set to open a new terminal in the port of Santos at the end of March.

Cofco International Ltd. is starting operations at the grain and sugar terminal as part of the company’s strategy to catapult itself into the upper ranks of global agricultural traders. It comes as China has been seeking out alternative grain suppliers as US President Donald Trump ratchets up tariff threats.

Agricultural powerhouse Brazil has become key to China’s efforts to diversify its purchases — it now supplies most of China’s soybeans and corn, dwarfing the US’s share. Cofco said Friday it sources 70% to 75% of its soybeans from Brazil.

Cofco forecasts that the new terminal will ship 8 million tons of agriculture products this year, including 5.5 million tons of soybean and corn, and 2.5 million tons of sugar. In total, the company expects to ship as much as 18 million tons of soy and corn from Brazil in 2025.

The soybeans and corn volume leaving from the new Santos facility in 2025 will be similar to the total last year from two different terminals in that port, but the new site will be cheaper and faster, Sérgio Ferreira, operations director in Brazil for Cofco International, said in a presser.

“With our own grains elevators, we expect to reduce costs by 10% to 15%,” Ferreira said.

Cofco won a concession in 2022 to build the Santos terminal. Once focused on trading and producing agricultural products for the Chinese government, the company now handles crops to over 50 nations. However, Cofco’s overseas expansion is being complicated by Trump’s vow to enact a 10% levy on Chinese goods. That threat may be blunted by Cofco’s big bet on Brazil.

While last year the Chinese company was able to ship a Panamax vessel, with roughly 70,000 tons of grains, every two or three days from Santos port, the new terminal will allow it to load two vessels a day, Ferreira said in an interview.

Cofco plans to open the terminal to other merchants next year, with roughly a third of the volume expected to come from other companies.

 

COFCO to ship 1.5 mln T of ‘sustainable’ Brazil soy to dairy firms in China

COFCO International has signed an agreement to supply 1.5 million tons of certified sustainable soybeans to two dairy companies in China, according to a statement on Sunday.

The soy will be third-party verified as free from deforestation and conversion of natural vegetation from December 2020, COFCO said, citing plans to conduct on-site farm audits to ensure sustainable production practices.

The buyers of the certified soy will be China Mengniu Dairy and Sheng Mu Organic Dairy. Delivery of the soy will occur between 2025 and 2030.

“This agreement reflects China’s growing demand for sustainable commodities,” said Luiz Noto, CEO of COFCO International Brasil. “Brazil has made great strides in sustainability and agreements like this reinforce these initiatives while creating new opportunities for producers.”

COFCO was Brazil’s fourth largest soy exporter to China in 2024, shipping 6.65 million tons, according to shipping data.

Brazil, the world’s largest soy producer and exporter, sends most of its exported soybeans to the Asian country, where it is processed to make animal feed and oil.

The company said the agreement builds on COFCO International’s previous shipments of deforestation- and conversion-free soybeans to China.

COFCO said it is committed to eliminating deforestation from its global soy and corn supply chains by 2025.

 

Argentina’s grains export sales up more than a third in January

Sales grew 36% in Argentina’s grains export sector in January compared to the same month last year, according to its major oilseed and grains export chamber, boosting government efforts to attract hard currency from the key farming industry.

The data from the CIARA-CEC chamber released on Sunday showed that January sales reached $2.07 billion and also marked 5% growth compared to December sales.

Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is a top global supplier of processed soybeans, corn and wheat. Its grains sales to foreign buyers – which make up nearly half of the economy’s overall exports – bring in much needed U.S. dollars to the cash-strapped central bank’s foreign currency reserves.

The arrival of wheat and barley to local ports, as well as a sustained soy crushing program, boosted January’s sales, according to CIARA-CEC.

“International prices didn’t accompany production improvements, although total annual values ​​could have been higher,” CIARA-CEC added.

Soybeans are Argentina’s top cash crop, and its current soy meal processing capacity is nearly 70% idle, according to national statistics agency INDEC.

In January, the government announced a temporary tax reduction for grains shipments, which aimed to boost the grains sector amid severe drought conditions and low market prices.

 

Russia Wheat Exports in February Set to Halve Y/Y: Rusagrotrans

Russia’s wheat exports in February are seen at 2.2 million tons to 2.3 million tons, down 50% over the same period last year, according to estimates from the analytical center of railway operator Rusagrotrans.

• It would also be the lowest level of exports since Feb. 2020
• Shipments include exports to Eurasian Economic Union
• In Feb. 2024, wheat exports were at 4.4 million tons

 

Top Pulses Consumer India Aims to Cut Heavy Reliance on Imports

India will launch a program to become self sufficient in production of pulses in six years, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech in parliament Saturday.

• The government will focus mainly on boosting production of pigeon peas, black gram and lentils
  • The plan will emphasize on the availability of climate-resilient seeds, besides enhancing protein content, increasing productivity and improving post-harvest storage
• The government will introduce a plan to enhance production of fruits and vegetables
  • Focus will also be on efficient supplies, processing, and remunerative prices
  • The authorities will launch an initiative to develop high-yielding, pest-resistant and climate resilient seeds
• India will help farmers through a five-year plan to improve productivity and sustainability in cotton farming
• The government increased the limit of short-term farm loans to 500,000 rupees from 300,000 rupees

 

Indonesia sees lower diesel imports in 2025 on higher biodiesel blend

Indonesia estimates its 2025 diesel imports will be 4.6 million kilolitres (KL), the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry said on Monday, down from 7.9 million KL last year due to a mandated increase in the amount of palm oil used in biodiesel.

Indonesia increased the mandatory mix of palm oil in biodiesel to 40% this year from 35% last year.

 

Russian Court Rules to Nationalize Top Grain Trader, Report Says

A Russian court ruled major grain trading house Rodnie Polya LLC should come under state control, Kommersant newspaper reported late Friday.

The ruling was in favor of the prosecutor’s claim that Rodnie Polya, formerly know as TD Rif, is in breach of the law because it is controlled by a foreign resident, according to the report.

The ruling marks another sign of the Kremlin’s crackdown on top assets owned by Russian tycoons through foreign entities. The trading company controls more than 20% of grain shipments through the Azov seaport, making it a strategic asset for Russia.

The firm’s owner, Petr Khodykin, is a resident of the United Arab Emirates and also has a second citizenship of Saint Kitts and Nevis, prosecutors said earlier. A foreign resident needs special permission from the government to participate in a strategic enterprise, and in this case there was none, Kommersant said.

The action is the latest upheaval in the Russian grain market since Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia is the world’s biggest wheat exporter, and local companies — some with links to the state — have moved to take control since major Western traders stopped originating grain for export there two years ago.

That also means the Kremlin has greater control over world grain and wheat supplies. Previously it had been using that to try and put a floor under Russian wheat prices for export, and seizing assets of “unfriendly” countries. Other businesses also have been brought under state control since the beginning of the war.

The court’s decision, made in a closed hearing, will not come into the effect immediately as Rodnie Polya has 30 days to appeal. The Russian Prosecutor General’s office filed a suit in December to take the company under state control.

Rodnie Polya fell out of favor with authorities last year after becoming entangled in a dispute with Russia’s agriculture regulator. That rift saw it lose its market leader position.

 

India Faces Above-Normal Temperatures in February, IMD Says

Most parts of the South Asian nation are likely to witness normal- to above-normal temperatures and below-average rains next month, after recording the third-warmest January since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department.

• Minimum temperatures in February are likely to be above-normal over most parts of the country, except in some areas in northwest and southern regions, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the weather office, said at a briefing in New Delhi on Friday
• Below-normal rainfall, along with higher temperatures, in the northwestern region would have a significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain-filling stages; rapeseed and chickpea crops may also experience early maturity
  • Horticultural crops like apple may see premature bud break and early flowering due to warmer temperatures, resulting in poor fruit setting
  • Intermittent light irrigation will be required to minimize the adverse impact and sustain crop growth
  • However, due to normal- to below-normal maximum temperatures over Uttar Pradesh and Madya Pradesh, the adverse impacts of cold wave on crops will be limited
• Weak La Nina conditions will continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean until April
  • Neutral ENSO conditions will prevail between May and September, Mohapatra said, ruling out the occurrence of El Nino weather pattern during India’s June-September monsoon season

 

India’s SEBI Extends Suspension on Commodity Derivatives Trading

The Securities and Exchange Board of India extended a ban on derivatives trading in seven farm commodities, including wheat and non-basmati unprocessed rice, for two months until March 31, according to a statement by the regulator.

• The suspension has been in place since late 2021
• Other agricultural commodities are chickpeas, rapeseed, soybeans, green gram and crude palm oil

 

US Pork Production Up 4.1% This Week, Beef Rises: USDA

US federally inspected pork production rises to 563m pounds for the week ending Feb. 1 from 541m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter up 3.9% from a week ago to 2.574m head
• Beef production up 0.2% from a week ago, cattle slaughter rises 0.2%
• For the year, beef production is 4.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 7.2% below

 

India to Raise Spending on Food Subsidy for 800 Million People

The government will increase its allocation to a food subsidy program, which guarantees free rice and wheat to hundreds of millions of people across the country.

• India will spend 2.03 trillion rupees ($23.5 billion) to subsidize food in the fiscal year starting on April 1, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech in parliament Saturday
• That compared with a revised amount of 1.97 trillion rupees for the current year

 

Russia begins coloring wheat for export to several countries -Rosselkhoznadzor

Russia has introduced a coloring procedure for wheat intended for export in accordance with the requirements of customers from several countries, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) said.

The first coloring procedure was carried out at the Vysotsky port in the Leningrad region, with a batch of 28,000 tonnes of wheat destined for Morocco. Coloring grain has become a new service provided by Federal Center for Assessing Agricultural Product Safety and Quality, an agency of Rosselkhoznadzor.

“Each country has its own requirements for the quality and appearance of products. For example, Morocco and Saudi Arabia have special conditions regarding the coloring of grain. Most often, coloring is used for identifying grain intended for animal feed,” it said.

During this procedure, special dyes are used which strictly adhere to safety and quality standards. For example, to meet Morocco’s requirements for identifying feed wheat, the green dye E-142 was used. This is a natural-origin substance that guarantees the product’s complete safety.

 

 

 

 

 

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