Global Ag News for Feb 13.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s Summer Harvest is Boosting Diesel Demand, IEA Says

Brazil’s summer harvest season is underway, causing the country’s agricultural diesel demand to soar, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

• Farmers in Brazil use energy-intensive machinery to gather crops
• Farming represents about a seventh of Brazil’s total gasoil demand
• That’s about 160k b/d, of which soybean production accounts for about a quarter

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 6 in HRW, up 3 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil down 0.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 10 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans down 19 1/4; Soymeal down $5.60; Soyoil down 0.78.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 18 1/2 in SRW, up 19 in HRW, up 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 3/4; Soybeans down 11 1/4; Soymeal down $6.00; Soyoil down 0.82.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are up 5.0% in SRW, up 6.8% in HRW, up 3.7% in HRS; Corn is up 6.6%; Soybeans up 3.0%; Soymeal down 4.0%; Soyoil up 13.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 2 yuan; Soymeal down 30; Soyoil down 140; Palm oil down 98; Corn up 20 — Malaysian Palm is down 67.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 67 ringgit (-1.45%) at 4554.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 71 Oats; 3 Corn; 262 Soybeans; 1,116 Soyoil; 1,462 Soymeal; 105 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of February 12 were: SRW Wheat down 4,157 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,634, Corn up 7,727, Soybeans down 9,804, Soymeal up 9, Soyoil down 6,542.

 

Brazil: Wet season showers in central Brazil continue all this week. However, showers should not be as intense as earlier this harvest period, instead being more typical of wet season rainfall for this time of year, or even spottier. That should allow for producers to continue to make progress on soybean harvest and safrinha corn planting. That is needed because they are still well behind the normal pace and have less than two weeks in their window to complete safrinha corn planting before it is considered late. Heavy rain is possible across southern Brazil as a front could stall across the region this weekend into early next week.

Argentina: A front will continue to slowly drift north through Thursday with scattered showers. There is some potential for areas of heavy rain, but not widespread and likely favoring the northeast. The pattern does look a little more active with another front moving through Friday into Saturday and another early next week. Some damage has already occurred for the corn and soybean crops, and there is no guarantee that the coming rain will be able to turn around conditions, but it should help to at least stabilize the crop.

Northern Plains: Cold air continues to be stuck in the region for the next 10 days, though we should see some moderation next weekend. The cold should cause additional stress and needed rations for livestock. Some light snow will move through at times, but heavy snow is not in the forecast. Drought continues to be a big issue as well.

Central/Southern Plains: Below-average temperatures moved into the region and that cold will be a concern for uncovered winter wheat, which has had a couple of bouts of very cold air over the winter. A widespread and heavier system is expected to exit Wednesday and heavy snow is expected across southern Nebraska and the northern half of Kansas. Another system is possible over the weekend, but precipitation could be lighter. The snow would be helpful to cover up winter wheat, but livestock will need extra rations with the cold.

Midwest: An active pattern is expected for eastern areas. Another system comes through with more widespread and heavier precipitation on Wednesday. This will likely include more freezing rain and heavy snow. Two more large systems are forecast through the region this weekend and next week, keeping the region busy but also aiding some of the drought areas with increased precipitation. Cold air sits across the northwest and will pulse through the rest of the region at times behind these systems. The northwest may also remain on the drier side as all these systems work off to the south and east.

Lower Mississippi: Barge traffic may slow down with the recent heavy precipitation that has led to higher water levels and minor flooding along the Mississippi’s tributaries. Another round of heavy rain is expected Wednesday and Saturday and will continue to lead to higher water levels and potential for flooding for the rest of the month.

 

The player sheet for Feb. 12 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 14,500 corn, sellers of 8,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN, SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 130,320 metric tons of U.S. corn and 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment to unknown destinations in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• FEED WHEAT SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group purchased about 115,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in private deals without issuing an international tender
• CORN TENDER: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group issued an international tender to purchase up to 210,000 metric tons of animal feed corn sourced from the United States, South America or South Africa only
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 123,979 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on February 13.
• WHEAT SALE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC bought milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Wednesday.
• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDERS: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued three international tenders to purchase up to 240,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, and up to 35,000 tons of feed barley and up to 35,000 tons of soymeal.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat on Wednesday.
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 102,450 metric tons of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States
• WHEAT TENDER: Saudi Arabia’s state purchasing agency the General Food Security Authority (GFSA) has issued an international tender to buy an estimated 595,000 metric tons of wheat
• BARLEY TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to buy a nominal 50,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.7% to 25.692M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 26.542 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.082m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.09m

 

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of five analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Feb. 6.

• Corn est. range 1,000k – 1,700k tons, with avg of 1,363k
• Soybean est. range 300k – 800k tons, with avg of 494k

 

Brazil 2025 Soy Crushing Estimate Raised to 57.5m Tons: Abiove

Estimate for the country’s soybean crushing in 2025 is 0.7% higher than previous forecast, industry group Abiove said in a statement.

• Projected crushing in 2024 was also raised by 0.7% to 55.4m tons, boosted by higher biodiesel production, Abiove said
• Soybean output for 2025 still seen at 171.7m tons
• Estimates for soy meal and soy oil production this year also flat at 44.1m tons and 11.4m tons, respectively
• Soy exports seen at 106.1m tons, unchanged from previous estimate

 

Argentina Voids River Dredging Auction and Will Probe Sole Bid

Argentina’s government will launch an investigation after an auction to dredge the Parana River — a key route for crop exports — received just one bid, President Javier Milei’s spokesman told reporters Wednesday.

• Eleven companies showed interest but DEME Group of Belgium was the sole formal bidder, Milei spokesman Manuel Adorni said at a press conference in Buenos Aires
• DEME tainted process with false allegations against the government, Adorni said
• The government is nullifying the initial auction while the investigation takes place, Adorni added

 

Argentina grains exchange forecasts soybean crop at 47.5 million tons

Argentina’s 2024/25 soybean crop will likely produce 47.5 million metric tons, according to a forecast released on Wednesday from the Rosario grains exchange.

The exchange also lowered the country’s 2024/25 corn crop to an estimated yield of 46 million tons, down 4% from the 48 million tons previously estimated.

 

Brazil soybean production slightly down amid harvest delays but drier days are ahead

2024/25 BRAZIL SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 170.1 [165.3–174.7] MILLION TONS, DOWN <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Brazil soybean production is fractionally lowered to 170.1 [165.3–174.7] million tons, as excessive moisture and harvest delays undermine late season yield potential especially across the Central-West and the Southeast, despite improved conditions and better weather prospects into late February. Nevertheless, a record-high yield/production outlook is sustained. Brazil’s agriculture state agency (CONAB) has lately pegged its total soybean production and area at 166.3 million tons and 47.4 million hectares, respectively (released on 14 January).

Over the past two weeks, precipitation patterns over Brazil’s major corn and soybean areas remained mixed while temperatures stayed consistently warm throughout. Eastern Mato Grosso – which has been inundated with weeks of on-and-off torrential rain, over 250 mm in total over the past 30 days – continued to suffer from excessive moisture, though the intensity has markedly reduced since the beginning of the month. The rest of the Central-West/Southeast/South regions rather saw a dry weather during early February, aiding farmers who had been under a significant harvest delay pressure due to unfavorable weather conditions late January. Overall much drier conditions with mild temperatures are in the forecast through late February, which should help farmers pick up the pace. As of 09 February, Brazil’s soybeans were 14.8% harvested nationally according to the latest CONAB crop progress report (released on 10 February), still behind last year’s pace of 20.9% despite recent improvements. Most severe delays are currently observed in Mato Grosso (e.g. 27.5% combined so far vs. 45.4% last year) and São Paulo (e.g. 4% harvested vs. last year’s 12% around the same time), which are consequently leading to severe Safrinha crop planting delays in respective regions. Delays in soy harvest could leave a significant portion of the second corn crop to be sown outside its optimal window, potentially inducing adverse yield impacts later in the season. Looking ahead, most crop areas of the Central-West/Southeast should continue to see below normal precipitation but near/above average rains are likely across most northern crop areas and the far South, warranting attention. Despite recent volatile weather and harvest delays, this season’s soybean yield/production potential should be well on track for a record-breaking year.

 

Ukrainian winter crop conditions look favourable, state weather forecaster says

Ukrainian winter crop conditions look favourable and crop failure is not expected, state weather forecaster Tetiana Adamenko said on Wednesday.

“A warm December and January, with temperatures typical for the end of March and April, was a favourable factor for crops and everything is fine today. No dangerous phenomena for winter crops are observed,” she told an online conference.

 

Argentina Voids River Dredging Auction and Will Probe Sole Bid

Argentina’s government will launch an investigation after an auction to dredge the Parana River — a key route for crop exports — received just one bid, President Javier Milei’s spokesman told reporters Wednesday.

• Eleven companies showed interest but DEME Group of Belgium was the sole formal bidder, Milei spokesman Manuel Adorni said at a press conference in Buenos Aires
  • DEME tainted process with false allegations against the government, Adorni said
• The government is nullifying the initial auction while the investigation takes place, Adorni added

 

AgriMer Keeps French Wheat-Export Outlook Steady; Cuts Stockpile

France’s soft-wheat exports are now seen at 9.74m tons in the 2024-25 season, slightly higher from a January estimate of 9.735m tons, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Wednesday.

• Stockpiles projection for the season cut to 2.81m tons from 2.89m tons in January

BARLEY:

• Stockpile estimate cut to 1.56m tons from 1.61m tons in January
• Export outlook at 4.82m tons from 4.78m tons in January

CORN:

• Stockpiles now seen at 2.76m tons, down from 2.79m tons in January
• Exports forecast at 4.57m tons, down from 4.62m tons in January

 

US National Weather Service to ‘Quickly’ Rename Gulf of Mexico

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and its offices, including the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service, will be changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.

All maps, nautical charts, websites and weather products will reflect the name change that is part of an executive order US President Donald Trump signed focused on what the administration says is “restoring names that honor American greatness.”

“Work is underway to update the naming convention as quickly as possible,” Susan Buchanan, a spokeswoman for the National Weather Service, said in an email.

There’s been a flurry of activity around the name change. On Sunday, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum announced on X that the agency had updated its maps to reflect the change. The following day, Alphabet Inc.’s Google announced it would make the change for US users. Apple Inc. did so for US users of its map product on Tuesday and said it would eventually roll out the shift for all users globally. Microsoft Corp.’s Bing has also followed suit.

Trump’s decision to rename the Gulf and tech companies’ following suit has received pushback, including from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

 

 

 

 

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