Global Ag News for Dec 22.23

TOP HEADLINES

EU Boosts 2023 Corn Harvest Estimate by 1.5M Tons; Barley Raised

The 2023 corn harvest is now seen at 61.4m tons, up from a November forecast for 59.9m tons, the European Commission said Thursday in a report.

• Barley crop estimate raised to 47.3m tons, versus 46.9m tons
• Soft-wheat crop estimate edged higher to 125.7m tons, versus 125.6m tons
  • Export estimate kept steady at 31m tons

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal up $1.70; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 15 1/2 in SRW, down 16 1/4 in HRW, down 15 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/2; Soybeans down 28; Soymeal down $8.50; Soyoil down 0.67.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 15 3/4 in SRW, down 16 1/2 in HRW, down 14 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 9; Soybeans down 58 3/4; Soymeal down $25.60; Soyoil down 2.57.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 22.5% in SRW, down 29.4% in HRW, down 23.8% in HRS; Corn is down 30.2%; Soybeans down 14.4%; Soymeal down 16.9%; Soyoil down 22.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 18 yuan; Soymeal down 13; Soyoil down 86; Palm oil down 112; Corn up 18 — Malaysian Palm is down 3.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 3 ringgit (-0.08%) at 3738.

There were changes in registrations (-62 SRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,038 SRW Wheat contracts; 159 Oats; 6 Corn; 497 Soybeans; 147 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 301 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 21 were: SRW Wheat up 3,502 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,887, Corn up 4,875, Soybeans down 1,165, Soymeal down 10,110, Soyoil up 1,347.

Brazil: Widespread heavier rainfall is forecast to continue in central Brazil through the end of the year, helping to turn around conditions for pod-setting soybeans. Southern areas will also see scattered showers, which could be heavier in some areas as well. These southern areas had some drier periods the last couple of weeks, allowing this stretch of rain to not be as negative of a factor for developing corn and soybeans.

Argentina: Showers have been frequent lately, keeping soils moist. Another storm system will move through this weekend with widespread showers and frequent bursts of rain are forecast going into January as well. Overall conditions are very favorable for developing corn and soybeans, though some areas are a little too wet and the remaining planting has slowed some.

Australia: Showers continue in northeastern areas through the weekend while other areas will be drier. Dryness across the west is concerning for cotton and sorghum, but not so much in the southeast. Northeastern areas will find the increasing rain favorable for developing crops.

Northern Plains: Above-normal temperatures continue to be forecast through the end of the year. Scattered showers are likely to move through this weekend, which may include accumulating snow.

Central/Southern Plains: A small disturbance will send rain through the region Thursday into early Friday and a stronger system will develop in the region over the weekend. That one has potential to bring some accumulating snow to some areas along with cooler temperatures going into Christmas Day.

Midwest: Above-normal temperatures have moved back into the region and will be around through most of next week as well. Scattered showers will move through Friday and Saturday, but a stronger storm will move through Sunday into next week that may include some snow.

Delta: A disturbance should bring isolated showers through Friday and Saturday with another coming through Sunday and Monday with more widespread precipitation. The forecast rainfall is good for both reducing drought and increasing water levels on the Mississippi River.

The player sheet for Dec. 21 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 2,000 corn, buyers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has bought about 16,000 metric tons of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in international tenders for up to 20,000 metric tons which closed on Dec. 5 with price negotiations continuing into last week.
• VEGOILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival Feb. 14-29 and/or March 1-15. GASC said traders should submit bids for payment at sight as well as 270-day letters of credit, and it would choose between them. The deadline for offers is Dec. 27.
• FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 197,300 metric tons of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
• RICE TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) set a tender to import natural white wholly milled short-grain Indian rice, it said in a statement. GASC, on behalf of Egypt’s Holding Company for Food Industries, sought arrival of the rice from Feb. 1-19 and/or Feb. 20-March 10. The deadline for offers is Dec. 21 and they should be accompanied by three samples, of two kilograms each, GASC said.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 110,000 metric tons of wheat.

TODAY

US Sold 2.13M Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.01M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending Dec. 14.

• Soybean sales rose to 2,134k tons vs 1,084k in the previous week
• Corn sales fell to 1,014k tons vs 1,419k in the previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 326k tons vs 1,509k in the previous week

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Unknown Buyers with 911k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 346k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 98k tons

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending Dec. 14, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 20.5k tons of the 63k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

Argentina Wheat Crop Not Materially Damaged by Storm: Exchange

A storm on Dec. 16-17 that ripped through Argentina’s breadbasket region only clobbered plants on the edges of farms, according to preliminary reports, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• Storm also brought rains that will benefit soil moisture levels for soy and corn currently being planted
• The bourse didn’t change its production forecast of 14.7m metric tons
• Wheat harvest progress 65%

Argentine Soy, Corn, Wheat Estimates Dec. 21: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2023-24 corn and soybean planting estimates both unchanged
• Corn planting advanced to 59% complete from 49% in the previous week
• Soybean planting advanced to 69% complete from 60%

Brazil 2023/2024 Soybean Crop Seen At 158 Million Tns Versus 163 Million Tns In The Inicial Forecast – Rabobank

RAZIL 2023/2024 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 158 MILLION TNS VERSUS 163 MILLION TNS IN THE INICIAL FORECAST – RABOBANK

India extends import duty reduction for edible oils to March 2025

India will allow the import of edible oils at lower import tax rates until March 2025, according to a government order seen by Reuters on Friday, as the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oil moves to keep a lid on local prices.

The lower import duty structure on crude palm oil, crude sunflower oil and crude soyoil was originally set to expire in March 2024. However, as per the order, refiners can now continue to import at lower duties until March 2025.

Western Australia’s Grain Outlook Cut, Quality Exceeds Forecast

• Yield quality has far exceeded expectations, association says
• Majority of growers in grain belt have completed harvesting

Western Australia’s grain association has cut its forecast for the state’s production in 2023 due to frost in southern regions, with yields now expected to be down 40% from the record crop a year earlier.

The state — the nation’s biggest exporter of the food staple — is forecast to produce 14.28 million tons for the year, according to a monthly report from the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. That’s down from 14.5 million tons in the November report.

Still, while yields have been well below recent averages for most growers, quality has far exceeded expectations. About 80% of wheat deliveries were premium grades, the association said. The majority of growers across the Western Australian grain belt finished harvesting well before Christmas, the earliest in a “very long time,” it added.

Some regions of Australia have been baked by dry weather over the past three months, with the onset of El Niño expected to extend the warmer conditions well into next year.

Smaller wheat production in the southern hemisphere has added to a recent price rally in Chicago. Futures for March delivery were little changed around $6.1175 a bushel in early Asia trading on Friday.

Countrywide, Australia’s wheat production is set to be slightly higher than expected this season, but still lower than the all-time high in the previous year, according to a report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences published earlier in the month.

Western Australia crop estimate for the 2023 season:

• Wheat: 7.35m tons
• Barley: 3.73m tons
• Canola: 2.46m tons

Crop estimates from November report:

• Wheat: 7.85m tons
• Barley: 3.65m tons
• Canola: 2.27m tons

Crop estimates for the 2022 season:

• Wheat: 13.93m tons
• Barley: 6.3m tons
• Canola: 4.3m tons

German farmers sow less winter wheat, rapeseed for 2024 crop

Germany’s winter wheat sown area for the 2024 harvest has been reduced by 7.3% from the year before to some 2.60 million hectares, its national statistics agency estimated on Friday.

The agency said German farmers have also reduced winter rapeseed sowings for the 2024 crop by 4.7% to some 1.11 million hectares.

German farmers suffered unfavourable sowing weather for wheat, with repeated rain making the ground too wet for agricultural vehicles to drive on, the agency said.

France is also expected to see a sharp fall in the sowing of winter cereals after heavy rain this autumn disrupted field work, France’s farm ministry said.

Reforms of EU farming subsidies may also have made wheat production less attractive, Germany’s statistics agency said. The EU has been shifting the focus of farm subsidies more towards environmental protection measures.

Germany is the European Union’s second largest wheat producer after France and a major exporter. It is one of the EU’s largest producers of rapeseed, Europe’s most important oilseed for edible oil and biodiesel production.

A reduction in rapeseed sowings had been anticipated after poor weather hindered sowings, with a rainy summer preventing an early start followed by a change to very dry autumn weather.

Sowings by German farmers of winter barley, largely used for animal feed, were expanded by 2.5% to 1.31 million hectares, the agency said.

Plantings of rye and other minor winter grains were cut by 4.4% to 600,700 hectares. Sowings of the animal feed grain triticale were increased by 1% to 333,500 hectares.

LIVESTOCK: US Red Meat Production Fell 2.2% Y/y in November

Commercial beef and pork production fell to 4.68b pounds in Nov., according to the USDA’s monthly livestock slaughter report.

• Beef production down 5.8% y/y to 2.28b pounds
• Nov. cattle slaughter totaled 2.73m head, a 6% decline from a year ago
  • Avg live weight rose by 3 pounds from last year to 1,387 pounds
• Pork production up 1.6% y/y to 2.39b pounds
• Hog slaughter increased 2.1% y/y to 11,139m head
  • Avg live weight was 289 pounds vs 290 pounds a year ago

US Egg Production Rose 4% in November From Year Ago: USDA

The US produced 9.3b eggs in November vs 8.95b in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the USDA.

• Output of table eggs rose 4.3% y/y to 8.02b
• Hatching eggs up 2% to 1.28b
• Chicken and egg production in millions:

US Poultry Slaughter Fell 2.7% Y/y in November: USDA

Slaughter fell to 5.67 billion pounds, according to the USDA’s monthly poultry slaughter report released on the agency’s website.

• Chicken live weight fell 3.6% in November from year ago
• Chickens condemned post-mortem down 11.1% y/y
• Condemned ante-mortem down 7.9% y/y

RIN Generation Drops in November, Offset by Slumping Fuel Demand

Lower fuel demand offset lower November RIN generation, restraining prices as excess supply eats into the 20% carry-forward allowance. Renewable diesel utilization has slipped, but supply is set to gain with three plants scheduled to add 70,000 barrels a day of capacity in 2024. The spread between diesel and feedstock prices are driving RINs.

 

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