Global Ag News For Dec 18.2025

TOP HEADLINES

High Prices Trigger India-Argentina Soy Oil Deal Cancellations

(Bloomberg) — Several Argentine soybean oil cargoes meant for India, the world’s biggest buyer, have been canceled or delayed as local prices in the Asian nation trade below foreign offers, according to industry officials.

More than 100,000 tons of soy oil for near-term shipment have been washed out or rolled over to the next month as availability of local oil rises and the Indian currency weakens, said Aashish Acharya, vice president at Patanjali Foods Ltd., one of India’s top vegetable oil buyers.

That equals about 20% of the country’s average monthly imports, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India. Inbound shipments have risen by almost a quarter so far in 2025 from a year earlier, the group’s data showed.

Prices in India have been hovering at about $40 to $50 a ton below comparable South American offers, a gap that has made imports increasingly uneconomic, Acharya said in an interview. “If the disparity continues, there will be a washout of more volume,” he said.

India’s edible oil trade is witnessing a change as fresh arrivals from the new local crop and weaker demand, mainly due to the absence of festivals and a pause in Hindu weddings during an ongoing inauspicious period, make imports less viable. Some traders are scrapping short-term deals and booking supplies further out, instead.

At the same time, Argentina prices have risen as it fulfills soybean sales commitments to China, tightening availability. This has made its soybean oil less competitive during a lean crushing season.

But even as some Argentine cargoes are canceled, India continues to receive rare soybean oil shipments from China, where prices are more attractive, said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of Mumbai-based Sunvin Group. The Asian nation, which imports vast quantities of raw soybeans, traditionally has kept the oil it crushes for use at home. But demand cutbacks locally have made its supplies competitive abroad this year.

Soy oil from China is priced roughly $10–$15 a ton below South America, a discount that has made it increasingly appealing to Indian importers in the southern and eastern parts of the country, Patanjali’s Acharya said.

Indian buyers still hold 50,000 to 60,000 tons of Chinese soybean oil cargoes scheduled for December and January, although delays are expected as some buyers have renegotiated deals to change delivery locations, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified citing company rules. They didn’t elaborate further.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are unchanged in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 1 1/4; Soymeal up $1.20; Soyoil up 0.15.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 22 1/2 in SRW, down 8 1/2 in HRW, down 1/8 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 17 1/4; Soymeal down $2.30; Soyoil down 1.43.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 32 1/4 in SRW, down 17 3/4 in HRW, down 1/7 in HRS; Corn is down 5; Soybeans down 76; Soymeal down $21.00; Soyoil down 3.35.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 8.1% in SRW, down 8.9% in HRW, down 5.5% in HRS; Corn is down 3.7%; Soybeans up 6.0%; Soymeal down 2.7%; Soyoil up 22.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAR 26) Soybeans down 43 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 10; Palm oil up 74; Corn down 10 — Malaysian Palm is up 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.35%) at 3980.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 9 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 184 Soymeal; 23 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 17 were: SRW Wheat up 6,457 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,203, Corn up 2,852, Soybeans down 939, Soymeal down 7,811, Soyoil up 244.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 17 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Widespread warmth will persist over most of the U.S. for the next couple weeks to the benefit of winter wheat, though cold air could spill southward from Canada early in the new year
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather will prevail along the Argentina Pampas through the balance of the year, elevating downside risks to corn/soybeans
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: Widespread high rainfall across the palm oil regions of Indonesia/Malaysia through the next 1-2 weeks will be favorable for production
• AFRICA: Heavy rains will hit the northern maize regions of South Africa in the next 10 days, but flooding risks should be localized in a favorable outlook for the crop
• TELECONNECTIONS: The Trans-Atlantic Dipole (TAD) remains in a positive phase event, which will support Argentina drought risks and Europe cold risks into the new year

 

A SPLIT RAINFALL PATTERN ACROSS THE PAMPAS CROP REGIONS IN LATE DECEMBER

What to Watch:

• Heavy rain is forecast for northern Argentinian Pampas, while the southern regions will trend drier
• Persistent rains in Mato Grosso (Brazil) should favor soybeans and early corn, but may slowly increase the risk of excess moisture or local flooding by late December

  

Brazil: A front brought enhanced showers across the south earlier this week, helping to maintain soil moisture. Another front is forecast to move into the south early next week. Showers have been less intense across central Brazil over the last week, but the coverage has been good, which is still improving soil moisture. Those showers continue this week as well. Overall conditions continue to be either favorable or improving.

Argentina: A front brought scattered showers through the country earlier this week, which brought some needed rain to some areas that were starting to dry out a bit. Most areas will be dry until another front moves through this weekend. Forecasts have increased the rainfall for that front as a couple of waves move through. And despite a drier stretch of weather recently, soil moisture is still largely favorable across most of the country, favorable for developing corn and soybeans.

Northern Plains: A system will move along the border on Wednesday into Thursday and bring through a few showers and a quick burst of colder air for Thursday. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday and the region will be in the way of the overall storm track near the border through next week. That may continue to bring through a few showers and changing temperatures, but an overall warmer trend is occurring while the colder air is forecast to remain largely in Canada.

Central/Southern Plains: Warmer air is in place and will continue through Christmas with little exception, and could be record high next week. A front will sweep through with some briefly milder air and a few showers on Wednesday into Thursday, but drier and warmer conditions are largely expected for a little while longer. That is not a good combination for winter wheat, which is seeing soil moisture falling. It is a slow process in the winter, but will have detrimental effects if this keeps up over the season. Warmer air may awaken some wheat as well, which would reduce winter hardiness for when cold air inevitably returns.

Midwest: A system will bring through some showers and another brief burst of colder temperatures on Thursday, initiating some brief lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes. Another system may do something a bit similar but with fewer showers this weekend. The region will be in the way of the overall storm track along the border through next week, but should be overall warmer with lighter showers through the end of the year. The warmer air should cause significant melting of snow and get that moisture into the soil column.

Delta: A few showers will move through on Wednesday and Thursday, but showers will be hard to come by as a general below-normal precipitation pattern continues. Water levels continue to be quite low, though some warmer air up north will melt some of the snowpack in the Midwest and give a little boost to the rivers as well. It just will not be enough and more precipitation is needed.

The player sheet for 12/17 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 198,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to China and 125,000 tons to unknown destinations. The agency also confirmed sales of 177,055 tons of U.S. corn to Mexico. All were for shipment in the 2025/26 marketing year.
• WHEAT SALES CANCELED: Exporters canceled sales of 132,000 metric tons of U.S. white wheat to China, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday, as world supplies were ample.
• CORN SALES: South Korean importer Major Feedmill Group (MFG) bought an estimated 268,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Wednesday.
• FEED BARLEY SALES: Jordan’s state grain buyer has purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed barley to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender seeking up to 120,000 tons on Wednesday.
• MILLING WHEAT SALES: A South Korean flour mill group bought an estimated 20,800 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the U.S. in an international tender on Wednesday.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

 

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.7% to 22.353M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 22.716 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.131m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.11m

 

Export Sales to China, Mexico, and Unknown Destinations December 17, 2025

US Official News

18 Dec 2025 03:31:43 AM

Washington: US Department of Agriculture has issued the following news release:

Private exporters reported the following sales activities:

• 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year
• 177,055 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2025/2026 marketing year
• 125,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2025/2026 marketing year
• Cancellation of 132,000 metric tons of white wheat for delivery to China during the 2025/2026 marketing year.  This sale was first reported on November 20, 2025 (FAS-ESR-074-25) and the cancellation information will be included in the Weekly Export Sales report to be issued on Monday, December 29, 2025

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 3.57 Million Tons In December – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 3.57 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 3.33 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.0 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 1.83 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.35 MILLION TNS IN DECEMBER VERSUS 6.30 MILLION TNS IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK – ANEC

 

Indonesia Oct. Palm Oil Exports Rise to 2.796m Tons: Gapki

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose to 2.796m tons in October from 2.2m tons in September, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki).

• Palm oil output rose to 4.757m tons from 4.298m tons in September
• Palm oil stockpiles fall to 2.333m tons from 2.592m tons in September
• Palm oil domestic consumption rose to 2.227m tons from 2.053m tons in September
• Palm oil for biodiesel domestic consumption rose to 1.2m tons from 1.07m tons in September

 

Malaysia Calls For Low-Risk Label as EU Delays Deforestation Law

The European Union should reassess country benchmarking in its now delayed deforestation regulations and classify Malaysia as a “low-risk” producer, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council.

• The MPOC said in a statement that a mandatory European Commission review by April 30, 2026 should “reassess country benchmarking to ensure that producing countries demonstrating measurable progress in reducing deforestation are appropriately classified as low risk”
• Benchmarking Malaysia as a low-risk country will ensure smallholder farms are not excluded from international supply chains as a result of disproportionate compliance requirements, said MPOC CEO Belvinder Sron
• NOTE: EU negotiators have agreed to delay the EUDR by one year and soften requirements that have been criticized for their bureaucratic burden and impact on trade
• Malaysia, the world’s second-biggest palm oil producer, is currently classified as “standard risk”
• Malaysia has “advanced rapidly” in traceability readiness with its National Traceability System, which consolidates certification data, geo-location coordinates and verified transactions, enabling EUDR-relevant information to be centrally-accessed and shared with EU partners
  • “This places Malaysia among the most prepared producer countries for transparent, deforestation-free supply chains,” MPOC said
• With the extended timeline and upcoming review, Malaysia aims to deepen technical cooperation with the EU and ensure a stable supply of credible, verifiable and deforestation-free palm oil for European markets

 

Argentina soy planting season in full swing behind schedule as dryness looms

LSEG Research & Insights – Commodities

2025/26 ARGENTINA SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 46.9 [45.8–48.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 Argentina soybean production is unchanged at 46.9 [45.8–48.1] million tons, but continued early season sowing delays, Pampas-wide declining soil moisture levels, and rather gloomy long-term weather outlooks warrant attention. Our current estimate puts planted area at 16.7 million hectares, slightly above 16.4 million hectares reported by Bolsa de Comercio in Rosario, but below the Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos Aires’ 17.6 million hectares. In December’s WASDE (released on 09 December), USDA placed Argentina soybean production at 48.5 million tons, unchanged from its previous projection in November.

Dry conditions have prevailed across Argentina’s southeastern core over the past two weeks, following a warm/wet November marked by higher-than-expected precipitation. This shift in the weather pattern appears likely to persist at least for the short-term – particularly in the central and southern Pampas – as minimal rainfall is forecast through the end of the month, accompanied by generally below-average temperatures. While soil moisture conditions remain decent in most core crop areas of the Pampas, the return of dryness in early December warrants close monitoring. There is a strong likelihood that moisture deficits will become a dominant concern for the remainder of the growing season, potentially undermining yield prospects.

Soybean planting is nationally 58% complete so far according to the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAgri), behind last year’s 66%. The Bolsa de Cereales in Buenos also reported a soybean sowing progress of 58.6%, largely behind schedule. In Argentina early soy planting typically ends in December, but second crop soybean (otherwise known as double crop soybeans) planting can occur until early January once wheat is harvested. The planting windows for soybeans are narrower than those for corn, which makes December weather conditions crucial regarding the sowing sequence/pace. According to the LSEG Weather Research team’s latest December-February ENSO analysis, the La Niña event is forecast to prevail through early next year, which can be a critical factor in determining final yield. La Niña conditions are most frequently associated with hot and dry weather in the main Pampas region. The current overall decent soil moisture conditions should provide a reasonable buffer against early growing season dryness, but reserves could deplete rapidly, warranting close attention.

 

 

 

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