Global Ag News for Dec 11.23
Hong Kong to cull 900 pigs amid outbreak of deadly swine fever
Hong Kong authorities have ordered the culling of more than 900 pigs after detecting the presence of the deadly African swine fever (ASF) in animals at a licensed farm in the New Territories district.
The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said 19 of 30 pigs tested had swine fever and that transportation of pigs from the farm had been immediately suspended. The culling will start early next week, it said.
“AFCD staff has arranged to inspect the other eight pig farms within three kilometres (two miles) of the index farm and will collect samples for ASF testing,” it said in a statement.
“Pork cooked thoroughly is safe for consumption. Members of the public do not need to be concerned.”
Though often fatal to pigs and with no vaccine available, ASF does not affect humans, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation.
FUTURES & WEATHER
Wheat prices overnight are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.14.
Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 4 1/2 in SRW, down 3 3/4 in HRW, down 10 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.82.
For the month to date wheat prices are up 27 in SRW, up 11 in HRW, down 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans down 33 1/2; Soymeal down $17.80; Soyoil down 1.74.
Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 22.3% in SRW, down 26.2% in HRW, down 24.1% in HRS; Corn is down 31.4%; Soybeans down 13.8%; Soymeal down 11.3%; Soyoil down 21.4%.
Chinese Ag futures (JAN 24) Soybeans up 27 yuan; Soymeal up 25; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 48; Corn down 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 1. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 1 ringgit (+0.03%) at 3741.
There were changes in registrations (-69 SRW Wheat, -7 Oats, -75 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 2,704 SRW Wheat contracts; 218 Oats; 660 Corn; 596 Soybeans; 62 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 336 HRW Wheat.
Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 8 were: SRW Wheat down 8,893 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,689, Corn down 2,593, Soybeans down 3,333, Soymeal down 5,293, Soyoil down 5,010.
Brazil: Wet season showers in Brazil continue this week, but become isolated by Thursday and continue to be so through the coming weekend. Below-normal coverage and amounts will stoke fears about soybean losses again, but heavier rain is forecast to come back in by the end of next week. Southern Brazil is seeing somewhat of a break from the heavy rain of the last few months with limited showers this week. Another front will bring showers back through this weekend and although fronts will move through on a regular occasion, they are less likely to produce excessive rain like we saw in previous months. If this remains true, a slow release of water could start bringing conditions away from excessive wetness, though a drier stretch would still be preferred.
Argentina: Isolated showers moved through southern areas this weekend while most of the country was dry. Several systems are lining up to move through the country over the next week, bringing widespread showers to most areas that could be heavy in some spots. Conditions continue to be very favorable for the remaining planting and early development of corn and soybeans.
Australia: A storm system developed over South Australia over the weekend that will create some rainfall over the east this week, somewhat favorable for developing cotton and sorghum. Western areas continue to have dryness and drought concerns.
Northern Plains: A system brought some decent snow to North Dakota late last week, but not cold air. Above-normal temperatures will continue this week, especially late week and weekend. It will also be largely dry this week, with some light snow for western areas on Monday but that is probably it.
Central/Southern Plains: Limited showers moved through over the weekend. A system will move into the region on Wednesday with scattered showers for much of the region. The system will be a slow-mover, not getting east of the region until the weekend. Precipitation may be heavy in some areas and just cold enough for some snow in the southwest.
Midwest: A system went through the region over the weekend with streaks of moderate showers and some light snow across the northwest. The region will be largely dry this week with increasing temperatures in the second half of the week. Models disagree about temperatures over the weekend, but are more likely to continue to be very warm by December standards.
Delta: A front brought widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region over the weekend. Hail also moved through some areas. It will be dry for most of the week, but a system will likely bring showers through this weekend. Rainfall in the Tennessee Valley over the weekend are forecast to improve water levels on the Mississippi River throughout the week.
The player sheet for Dec. 8 had funds: net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 2,500 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,500 soyoil.
- SOYBEAN, WHEAT, CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of U.S. soy and 110,000 metric tons of U.S. soft red winter wheat to China. Exporters also sold 165,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to unknown buyers, the USDA said.
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy soft milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins
- NON-GMO SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase around 20,000 metric tons of food-quality soybeans free of genetically modified organisms (GMOs)
- MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat
- WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.
- WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 110,000 metric tons of wheat.
Brazil 2023/24 Soy Output Est. Cut to 158.23M Tons at Safras
Brazil’s 2023/2024 soybean output forecast was reduced to 158.23m tons from 161.4m tons estimated in Nov., according to Safras & Mercado consulting firm.
- Dry and unseasonal weather are among the firm’s concerns and has caused the revision of its forecast downwards
- Despite the estimate cut, the crop should be the largest in history
- “Climate issues should remain on the radar,” firm said in a note
Brazil Farmers Plant 88.1% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 97.3% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios
BRAZIL FARMERS PLANT 88.1% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 97.3% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS
Brazil 2023/24 Soybean Crop Seen at 160 Million Tns – Cogo
BRAZIL 2023/2024 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 160 MILLION TNS VERSUS 164 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
BRAZIL 2023/2024 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 119.3 MILLION TNS VERSUS 121.6 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
Ukraine forecasts grain harvest at 59.7 mln T with record yield
Ukraine’s farm ministry on Friday raised its 2023 grain harvest forecast to 59.7 million metric tons, saying the country had achieved a record grain yield.
The total grain and oilseed harvest is expected to reach 81.3 million tons, the ministry said in a statement, compared to an October forecast of 79.1 million tons.
The ministry said the grain yield increased to 54.7 centners per hectare (C/ha) in 2023, topping the 53.6 C/ha of 2021. A centner is equivalent to 100 kilograms.
According to updated estimates, the wheat harvest is expected at 22.2 million tons, barley at 5.8 million and corn at 30.1 million tons.
The 2023 forecast for the sunflower seed harvest remained at 13 million tons and for soybeans at 4.6 million tons. Rapeseed harvesting has been completed at more than 4 million tons.
CORN/CEPEA: Lower supply in spot market and firm demand remain boosting prices
Corn supply has been reducing in the Brazilian spot market. This scenario is a result of concerns about weather impacts on the 2023/24 crop – official numbers already show lower production. Moreover, exports remain at a good pace, and, in Brazil, some companies interrupt their activities at the end of year period.
In this context, farmers reduced the interest on trading in the spot and for future delivery, while buyers keep firm, supporting prices. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) closed at BRL 65.79 (USD 13.40)/bag on December 7, up 4.9 percent compared to November 30 and recovering the levels verified on April this year.
On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, between Nov. 30 and Dec. 7, corn prices increased 3.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and 3.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers).
CROPS – Despite unfavorable weather conditions, the crop development has been considering adequate – players are concerned with delays on the soybean summer planting, which may reduce the ideal period to sown the corn of second crop.
For the summer crop, 60 percent of the area was planted in Brazil up to Dec. 3, 11.2 percentual points below than that in 2022/23, according to Conab.
Concerning the three crops, Brazilian production in 2024 is forecasted at 118.5 million tons, 10% inferior to that in 2023. Consumption is expected to be 6% higher and exports, 32% lower, forecast at 38 million tons. Thus, in Jan/25, inventories are expected to total 4.51 million tons, the lowest registered in last years.
SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Better weather conditions and lower demand press down prices in BR
Cepea, 8 – Soybean prices dropped in Brazil this week. Pressure came from both the international devaluation and the dollar depreciation against the Real, which resulted in lower demand in domestic market. Moreover, the weather improved in most part of soybean producer areas – recent rainfalls in the Cerrado have brought a relief to players, that intensified the sowing of 2023/24 season. In the Southeastern areas in Brazil, crop activities have gained pace over the last days favored by the lower volume of rains.
Between Nov. 30 and Dec. 7, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, to BRL 145.25 per 60-kg bag and BRL 137.95/bag on Dec. 7. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 0.9% both in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors).
CROPS – Despite showing better pace this week, crop activities remain delayed in relation to previous years. Conab says that 83.1% of the national area had been planted up to December 2, below the 90.7% registered in the same period of the last season.
Brazil is expected to produce 160.17 million tons, according to Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) report released on Dec. 7. This volume represents a decrease of 1.4 percent compared to the previous document – due to irregular rains since the beginning of 2023/24 crop –, but still a record.
China corn output hits record on larger acreage sown
China produced a record corn crop this year, up 4% compared to a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday, with an increase in the area planted with the grain more than compensating for damage caused by summer typhoons.
Output of 288.84 million metric tons matched earlier forecasts by the agriculture ministry and adds to bumper corn crops from other big global producers that have weighed on global prices Cv1.
Corn production in China, the world’s No. 2 grower, rose as Beijing continued to give subsidies to farmers planting staple grains in a push for food security.
Corn acreage rose 2.7%, or 1.15 million hectares, from a year earlier to 44.2 million hectares (109 million acres), the most land sown with the grain since at least 2015.
The large crop has weighed on domestic prices and will help Chinese livestock farmers who have been losing money and who feed corn to the world’s biggest herd of pigs.
The most-active January corn futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange has declined over the past three months to near a six-month low of 2,486 yuan ($345.90) per ton.
The soybean harvest also grew this year, reaching 20.84 million tons, up 2.8% or 560,000 tons from the year before, the statistics bureau said.
The increase came with a 2.2% expansion in acreage to 10.5 million hectares.
Rice output fell, however, by 0.9% to 206.6 million tons. Rice competes with soybeans for acreage in the northeast.
Government rice stockpiles are high, giving Beijing room to reduce production as it tries to promote higher oilseed output, said Rosa Wang, analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co Ltd.
Wheat output, largely harvested in the summer, reached 136.6 million tons.
“The national grain output reached another new high, laying a solid foundation for comprehensively promoting rural revitalization … and making a positive contribution to stabilizing the global grain market and maintaining world food security,” said Wang Guirong, director of the statistic bureau’s rural division.
t to Close to Barge Traffic as Water Level Rises
The Upper Rhine will probably close to barge traffic at Maxau by Tuesday morning due to high water levels, according to an official from the WSV water authority.
- Maxau is close to Karlsruhe, Germany, where the Miro oil refinery is located
- The barge clearance level is currently around 737 centimeters and barges won’t be able to pass at that point when that level rises to 750 centimeters
- Snow is melting in south Germany and Switzerland, according to Riverlake
Nitrogen Prices Jump as Corn Demand Rises in Brazil
Fertilizer demand has increased in Brazil’s inland markets amid drought relief and improved affordability, driving urea prices up 11.9% on new imports and 4.4% at inland regions. Potash is down slightly on plentiful supplies in Brazil, while phosphates remain strong amid tight availability.
Brazil Urea Strengthens, Potash Falls, Phosphates Stay Firm
After declining 22% since October, urea import prices in Brazil rose 11.9% on improved demand as drought conditions eased and soybean planting advanced. After inland urea prices fell 7% last week, sales picked up on improved affordability as farmers prepare for winter corn planting. The rising demand led suppliers to move urea prices back up this week. Soybean planting delays have compressed the application window for corn. As such, planting uncertainty in Brazil might continue to push nitrogen prices lower before January, while India remains out of the market. Potash import prices slipped to $315-$330 a metric ton (mt) from $320-$330 on plentiful supplies. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) availability remains limited, driving prices up to $560-$570/mt from last week’s $560-$565, with prices likely to stay firm into 1Q.
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