Global Ag News For Dec 10.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Milei Is Cutting Export Taxes on Argentine Soy, Corn and Wheat

President Javier Milei’s government reduced tariffs on exports of soybeans, corn and wheat as he seeks to make good on a repeated promise to do away with the levies, which have held back Argentina’s farmers for years.

“Eliminating export tariffs has always been a priority,” Economy Minister Luis Caputo said Tuesday in a post on X. “And we’ll continue doing everything possible to achieve that goal as soon as possible.”

Caputo said that the lower tariffs are permanent, a sign that Milei is trying to boost the agriculture industry in the long run. Other reductions this year were for a limited period of a time only in an effort to accelerate trading and get dollars in the door quicker to help the government.

Farming is a pillar of Argentina’s economy, yet production has been hampered for two decades by government interventions and is falling further behind neighboring Brazil. The two agricultural powerhouses are also navigating Donald Trump’s trade war, with China purchasing more South American crops amid US tariffs.

Argentine farmers are currently harvesting a huge wheat crop and planting soybeans. The new tariff levels will be:

• Soy meal and soy oil: 22.5%, down from 24.5%
• Soybeans: 24%, down from 26%
• Wheat: 7.5%, down from 9.5%
• Corn: 8.5%, down from 9.5%

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil up 0.38.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 5 in SRW, down 6 1/2 in HRW, up 0 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans down 22 1/2; Soymeal down $6.40; Soyoil down 0.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 6 in SRW, down 1 in HRW, down 0 in HRS; Corn is up 1/2; Soybeans down 53 1/2; Soymeal down $19.00; Soyoil down 0.64.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.8% in SRW, down 7.0% in HRW, down 2.4% in HRS; Corn is down 3.9%; Soybeans up 8.5%; Soymeal down 3.1%; Soyoil up 27.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 26) Soybeans up 37 yuan; Soymeal down 21; Soyoil down 12; Palm oil down 32; Corn down 12 — Malaysian Palm is down 43.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 43 ringgit (-1.05%) at 4063.

There were changes in registrations (-4 Oats, -45 Soymeal, -70 HRW Wheat). Registration total: 34 SRW Wheat contracts; 120 Oats; 47 Corn; 1,131 Soybeans; 810 Soyoil; 179 Soymeal; 33 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of December 9 were: SRW Wheat up 6,498 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,541, Corn up 6,413, Soybeans down 14,382, Soymeal up 5,123, Soyoil down 11,212.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 10 DECEMBER 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Cold risks expected in the Northern Plains, Midwest/Northeast, while the West will remain warmer during the next 5-day period. Heavy rains limited to the Northwest, with snowfall in Northern Plains/Midwest and Northeast and rest dry elsewhere.
• SOUTH AMERICA: Pampas stays cool with above-normal rainfall limited to the south, while Brazil experiences wet conditions and cooler temperatures.
• EUROPE: Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected across Europe over the next week, with most regions experiencing below-normal precipitation, except U.K., Spain, and Scandinavia.
• ASIA: Asia will see mostly near-normal to cooler temperatures over the next 15 days, with mixed conditions in the East. Above-normal precipitation is expected in Southeast and East Asia.

 

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST, WHILE THE REST OF THE U.S REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Cold risks in Northern Plains/Midwest
• Heavy rains in the Northwest regions

 

LA NIÑA IS LIKELY TO FULLY DISSIPATE IN MARCH-MAY NEXT YEAR

What to Watch:

• The initial forecast for March-May indicates full dissipation of La Niña conditions during the spring in the Northern Hemisphere
• Dryness risks will be elevated for the spring and winter crops in U.S. Midwest/Plains, Russia, as well as for coffee in Ethiopia and Vietnam
• The potential for excessive moisture or spring floods exist for Southwest Europe, North China Plain and Indonesia

 

Brazil: Heavy rain has fallen in central and northern Brazil over the last week, which has been sorely needed for developing to reproductive soybeans. A stronger system moving through the south on Tuesday is bringing through some widespread rainfall, some of that being heavy and improving soil moisture. Scattered showers will continue across the central and north. Conditions are either favorable or improving.

Argentina: A system moved through on Sunday and Monday, which produced patchy rainfall outside of the north that got some heavier amounts. Though the pattern has been slower with rainfall chances, soil moisture is still favorable after an active spring. A couple of chances for patchy rainfall continue this week, but rainfall is coming at a below-normal pace and next week is forecast to be much drier. Issues with some areas getting too dry for developing corn and soybeans will be a concern with time.

Northern Plains: A clipper will move through on Tuesday with scattered precipitation, heavy snow in the northeast, and strong winds. Another clipper will move through on Thursday with more precipitation and heavier snow in the southwest and a blast of arctic air behind it. The cold won’t last long with warmer air moving in early next week.

Central/Southern Plains: The storm track is to the north this week, allowing some warmer air into the region. However, a strong cold front will move through on Friday with another blast of colder air. That should be brief though as warmer air moves in next week. Precipitation is generally not expected, but a few spots could see some light amounts.

Midwest: Four clippers will move across the region through this weekend with variable precipitation, but chances for some more moderate snow, breezy winds, and reinforcing shots of cold air. Some warmth is moving through on Tuesday, but a clipper moving through Tuesday night and Wednesday will cause temperatures to fall. Another blast of extremely cold, arctic air is forecast again this weekend. It will be very intense and some areas may not make it above zero, but will only last a couple of days with more seasonable air moving in next week.

Delta: Recent precipitation in the Midwest produced a lot of snow, which will slowly leak into the Mississippi River system throughout the winter. Multiple clippers will move through the north this week, keeping the Delta region fairly dry and promoting slow falls in water levels on the rivers.

 

The player sheet for 12/9 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased an estimated 132,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender on Tuesday seeking up to 136,000 tons, European traders said. It was purchased by the KFA’s Incheon section in two consignments to be sourced from optional origins with the seller free to select the region of supply.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of animal feed importers in Thailand is believed to have purchased around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat on Tuesday
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday, traders said.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal late on Tuesday without issuing an international tender,
• RICE TENDERS: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, European traders said on Tuesday. The deadline for price offers is December 22. Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued multiple international tenders to purchase 50,000 tons of rice, with price offers due on November 20, December 1, December 9 and December 15, European traders said. Separately, the lowest price offered in the tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice, which closed on Tuesday, was estimated at $351.11 a metric ton CIF liner out, traders said. Offers are still being considered and no purchase had yet been reported, they said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN TENDER: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group has issued an international tender to buy up to 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn which can be sourced from the U.S., Argentina, Brazil or South Africa
• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The lowest price offered in a tender from the Trading Corporation of Pakistan to purchase 100,000 metric tons of rice for supply to Bangladesh was estimated at $394.95 CIF liner out, European traders said. The deadline for submitting price offers was November 28.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers is December 10.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 58,244 metric tons of rice to be mainly sourced from China, European traders said. The deadline for the submission of price offers is December 11.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat, which can be sourced from optional origins, European traders said on Wednesday. A new announcement had been expected by traders after Jordan purchased 60,000 tons in its previous tender for 120,000 tons of wheat on Tuesday.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

EU’s 2026 Grain Crop Set to Slide by 3% Y/y: Coceral Data

Next year’s grain production in the EU, combined with the UK, is estimated at 296.7m tons, industry group Coceral said in an initial estimate.

• That compares with 306.6m tons harvested in 2025
• Soft-wheat crop seen at 143.9m tons, down from 147.5m tons
  • “Yields are expected to decrease from the exceptional levels seen in 2025”: Coceral
  • Still, “rains over the past months have resulted in favorable soil moisture conditions, ensuring good crop development in many parts of the EU ahead of the winter”
• Barley harvest seen at 58.2m tons, from 63.2m tons this year
• Corn crop seen at 58.9m tons, against 57.1m tons, recovering from 2025’s drought-affected harvest
  • Still, “since farmers have been disappointed by the corn yields in many of the last years, plantings will probably continue to shrink, particularly in the Balkan countries and France, with farmers switching to other spring crops, such as sunflowers and soybeans”
• Rapeseed crop seen at 21.8m tons, “exactly in line” with 2025’s crop

 

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks hit 6-1/2-year high in Nov on weak exports, robust output

• Palm oil stocks rise 13% m/m to 2.84 million tons
• Output falls 5.3% m/m to 1.94 million tons
• Exports drop 28.1% m/m to 1.21 million tons

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks rose in November to a more than 6-1/2-year high, as weaker exports coincided with the second-highest production ever recorded for the month, data from the industry regulator showed on Wednesday.

Rising inventories in the world’s second-biggest producer of the tropical oil could weigh on benchmark Malaysian futures, which are trading near a five-month low.

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks in November rose 13% from the previous month to 2.84 million metric tons, the highest since March 2019, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

Crude palm oil production fell 5.3% in November from October to 1.94 million tons, but was still the highest November production recorded since 2017, the MPOB said.

Meanwhile, palm oil exports plunged 28.1% to 1.21 million tons, snapping two consecutive months of gains.

A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 2.66 million tons, with output seen at 1.98 million tons and exports at 1.44 million tons.

Given the current production momentum, Malaysia’s total output is likely to exceed 20 million tons for the first time in 2025, which could put downward pressure on prices, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

Over the past 25 years, December output has fallen by an average of 8.9% from the previous month.

Malaysia’s December exports are expected to remain under pressure as Indonesia supplies palm oil at lower prices following Jakarta’s cut to export levies, a Mumbai-based dealer at a global trade house said.

Indonesia has cut the export tax on crude palm oil shipments in December to $74 per ton, down from $124 in November.

 

India’s winter crop acreage set for record on abundant soil moisture

Indian farmers have ramped up planting of winter crops including wheat, rapeseed and chickpea, putting the country on track for record acreage as abundant soil moisture enables cultivation even in typically rainfed areas that often remain fallow.

The higher planting is expected to help the world’s second-largest wheat producer boost output, ease local prices, and potentially allow New Delhi to permit limited exports of wheat flour. Increased rapeseed production could also help the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer reduce its overseas purchases.

Abundant monsoon rainfall this year improved soil moisture and boosted reservoir levels, which in turn is enabling farmers to expand the area under winter crops, said Harish Galipelli, director of ILA Commodities Pvt Ltd.

Indian farmers have so far planted winter-sown crops on 47.9 million hectares since sowing began on October 1, up 6.1% from a year ago, data from the farm ministry showed.

Wheat was planted on 24.14 million hectares, up 10.8% from a year earlier, while paddy area rose 11.4% to 1 million hectares, the data showed.

India’s wheat is mainly produced in the northern states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and the central state of Madhya Pradesh.

India’s key wheat-growing north-western region was inundated with 161% more rainfall than average in October, contributing to the country’s overall 49% surplus in the month.

Rapeseed plantings reached 8 million hectares, up 4.5% from last year, and chickpea sowing increased 3.5% to 7.8 million hectares.

Rapeseed is the main winter-sown oilseed in India, which fulfils nearly two-thirds of its demand through overseas purchases of palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil, primarily from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

“If weather stays supportive, especially from mid-January to mid-March, crop yields could improve this year,” said Ashwini Bansod, vice president for commodities research at Phillip Capital India, a Mumbai-based brokerage.

The La Niña weather pattern, historically linked to colder-than-normal winters across northern India, is likely to persist from December through February, according to India Meteorological Department.

India banned wheat exports in 2022, extending the prohibition as extreme heat shriveled crops again in 2023.

 

China wheat production outlook steady as winter sowing concludes

2026/27 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 140.95 [136.7-145.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

China’s wheat production for the 2026/27 season is projected at 141.0 [136.7–145.9] million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate. Despite persistent October rains that slowed early fieldwork, winter wheat planting is now virtually complete, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

Over the past two weeks, temperatures were slightly above normal across most major winter wheat regions, while Xinjiang and Hebei experienced slightly cooler conditions. Rainfall during this period was generally near normal to below normal across key wheat-producing areas.

Soil moisture remains adequate, and current weather patterns are supportive of crop establishment. Looking ahead, forecasts for the next two weeks indicate near-normal to slightly warmer temperatures and limited rainfall across the North China Plain. Seasonal outlooks for December suggest near-normal to slightly warmer temperatures and near-normal precipitation across major wheat-growing regions, conditions that should support crop development if realized.

 

USDA updates farmer-reported US crop planting totals for December

Farmers who participated in U.S. crop subsidy programs reported “prevented plantings” for December 1, 2025, of 1.839 million acres of corn, up from 1.837 million acres reported in September; 1.268 million acres of soybeans versus 1.262 million acres in September, and 0.284 million acres of wheat, virtually unchanged from September, the Department of Agriculture said on Tuesday.

Producers enrolled in subsidy programs for December 1, 2025, reported planted acreage, including failed acres, at 97.244 million of corn, 80.303 million of soybeans and 48.886 million of wheat.

Producers who enroll in several Farm Services Agency programs must submit to USDA an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.

USDA uses the information as an element in its crop estimates, which cover all farms, not just those that participate in the farm program.

The agency did not provide monthly acreage updates that were scheduled for release on October 9 and November 10, during the federal government’s 43-day shutdown. The agency last reported acreage estimates on September 12.

 

 

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