Global Ag News for Aug 20th

TODAY – CATTLE ON FEED, COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/2; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $0.08; Soyoil up 0.90.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 27 1/4 in SRW, down 24 3/4 in HRW, down 19 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 19 3/4; Soybeans down 34; Soymeal down $0.60; Soyoil down 2.46.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 34 1/4 in SRW, up 46 in HRW, up 19 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans down 18 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 2.22.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans down 131 yuan ; Soymeal down 44; Soyoil down 108; Palm oil down 124; Corn down 35 — Malasyian Palm is up 24. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 24 ringgit (+0.57%) at 4262 first time in four days amid gains in soybean oil prices and an improving outlook for exports from the second-biggest grower Malaysia.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. East: Isolated showers east through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Aug. 19 had funds: net sellers of 7,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 13,500 corn, sellers of 17,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 7,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 19 were: SRW Wheat up 5,729 contracts, HRW Wheat up 2,384, Corn up 7,618, Soybeans up 7,478, Soymeal down 574, Soyoil down 4,254.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 79 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

 TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 263,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China and 148,590 tonnes to Mexico, both for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year that begins Sept. 1.
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased an estimated 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in a private deal on Wednesday without issuing an international tender, European traders said on Thursday.
• WHEAT SALE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 143,765 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer has issued another international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 280,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 19.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency, ONICL, issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.

U.S. Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

• Soybean sales highest since January, China purchased 1.1m tons of the 2.2m sold
• China also led in wheat purchases, Mexico led in corn

U.S. Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

• Mexico bought 6.9k tons of the 20k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan and South Korea led in beef purchases

CROP TOUR: Northeastern, North-Central Iowa Corn Yields Top 2020

Corn yield estimates in northeastern and north-central Iowa looked to be above statewide estimates from 2020, according to scouts on the last day of this week’s Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Corn yields averaged ~195 bu/acre after seven stops
• Last year, the statewide average was ~177.81 bu, tour data shows

SOYBEANS

• Soybeans averaged ~1,100 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square
• Last year, Iowa average was ~1,146.3 pods
• NOTE: Tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
• NOTE: The eastern leg of the tour will make corn-yield and soy-pod projections for the entire state of Iowa later on Thursday
• NOTE: Iowa, the top U.S. corn grower, could be key in determining this year’s national corn and soy yields
  • The state has been hit with weather woes like drought and too much rain in some places, though has seen largely favorable farm weather in other regions

U.S. generation of renewable fuel credits unchanged in July -EPA

The United States generated about the same amount of renewable fuel blending credits in July versus the month prior, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

• About 1.27 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in July, according to the data.
• About 356 million biodiesel (D4) blending credits were generated last month, down from 429 million the month prior.
• The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated ethanol blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

China Imports of U.S. Soy Hit One-Year Low, Corn Soars to Record

China bought 42k tons of U.S. soybeans in July, the least in a year but still up 10% from year ago, according to customs data Friday.

• U.S. soybean sales season has ended and China shifted to buying from Brazil, its top supplier
• Purchases from Brazil eased 3.7% y/y to 7.9m tons in July: customs
• NOTE: China July Soybean Imports 8.674m Tons: Customs

CORN

• Corn imports from U.S. surged to an all-time high of 2.5m tons in July compared with 134k tons a year earlier, customs data show
• Purchases surpassed the previous record of 2.2m tons in June
• Shipments from Ukraine slid 55% y/y to 345k tons in July, the lowest since November 2020

CROP TOUR: Corn Yield, Soy Pods Up in Iowa; Down in Minnesota

Corn yields in Iowa avg 190.76 bu/acre, according to 481 samples taken by participants on the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• That’s up from tour avg of 177.81 bu/acre last year, Pro Farmer data shows
  • Three-year avg is 182.95 bu/acre
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 1,217.8 pods, according to 475 samples
  • That’s up from 1,146.3 pods last year; 1,154.07 three-year avg
  • NOTE: Tour doesn’t project soybean yields
• NOTE: USDA this month forecast Iowa corn yields at an avg 193.0 bu/acre, up 15 bushels from last year
  • USDA sees soybean yields at 58 bu/acre, five bushels higher than last year

MINNESOTA

• Minnesota crop tour corn avg 177.44 bu/acre, according to 236 samples
  • That’s a decline from 195.08 last year; three-year avg of 181.37
• Minnesota soy pod count is 1027.33, according to 230 samples
  • That’s down from 1,085.84 pods last year; three-year avg of 1,047.21
• NOTE: USDA this month forecast Minnesota corn yields at avg of 166 bu/acre, a decrease of 26 bu/acre from last year
  • USDA sees soy yield seen at 43 bu/acre, six bushels below last year
• NOTE: Thursday was fourth day of tour and last day of field measurements; final Pro Farmer yield estimates will be released on Friday

China’s July soybean imports from Brazil drop on poor crush margins

China’s soybean imports from top supplier Brazil fell in July from the previous year, customs data showed on Friday, as poor crush margins weighed on demand.

China, the world’s top buyer of soybeans, brought in 7.88 million tonnes of the oilseed from Brazil in July, down 3.7% from 8.18 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

Chinese crushers stepped up purchases of soybeans from the South American country in the earlier months of the year, to profit from good margins, driven by a fast recovering pig herd.

For July, China’s soybean shipments from all origins totalled 8.67 million tonnes, down 14.1% from the previous year.

China also imported 42,277 tonnes of soybeans from the United States in July, up from 38,331 tonnes in the same month a year earlier, according to customs data.

Crush margins in Rizhao, Shandong province, a major soybean processing hub in northern China, hit their lowest levels on record in late June, before climbing back up.

Crushers there would still lose about 176 yuan ($27.07) from each tonne of soybean crushed.

China’s soybean imports are expected to slow in the next few months of the year as falling hog margins and a rise in wheat feed use continued to crimp demand for soymeal.

China’s sow herd, which had been rising for 21 months, fell for the first time in July from the previous month, after a plunge in hog prices pushed many farmers to get rid of unproductive sows.

Hog margins in Sichuan, a top pig producer in China, fell to negative 134 yuan, from around 2,566 yuan at the beginning of the year.

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Aug. 19: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate at 50.5m tons; the Grain Exchange raised the est. by 2.5m tons on Wednesday
• Corn harvest 98.1% complete vs 94.7%

Argentina Dryness Is Hurting Its Wheat Crop: Grain Exchange

Plants in northern regions and Cordoba province are struggling with dryness, aggravated by high temperatures, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in its weekly report.

• In southern regions, dryness is also starting to become a problem
• 43% of wheat plants have a poor-to-dry moisture level, up from 39% last week, according to a separate crop condition report
• NOTE: Argentine wheat is mostly harvested in November-December

Oilseed Meal Shipments From India Fall 6.2% M/m in July: Group

Oilseed meal exports fell to 191,188 tons from 203,868 tons a month earlier, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in an emailed statement Thursday.

• NOTE: Exports totaled 262,275 tons in July 2020
• Soybean meal exports in July 26,725 tons vs 25,918 tons in June
• Rice bran extract sales 39,758 tons vs 37,049 tons
• Castor seed meal exports 29,940 tons vs 30,530 tons
• Rapeseed meal shipments 94,765 tons vs 110,115 tons

Russian Farmers Keep Some Wheat Unsold, Boosting Price: Union

Domestic wheat prices have rallied as farmers and internal traders are reluctant to sell, even after the new harvest, amid a formula-based export tax, Eduard Zernin, head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters, said by email.

• Exporters are not able to buy grain at competitive prices either
• There is no wheat deficit and the situation should normalize soon amid supply from the new harvest, he said
• The Agriculture Ministry wasn’t able to immediately comment
• NOTE: Russia started the floating tax in June, with a $28.10/ton levy; this week the tax is set at $30.40/ton

French Soft-Wheat Harvest Picks Up After Rain Delay: AgriMer

Harvesting of France’s soft-wheat crop was 91% complete as of Aug. 16, up from 72% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.

• NOTE: Combines had struggled to enter soft-wheat fields across France since late June because of rain
• Quality is particularly mixed this year due to the weather, as crops faced a heatwave at the start of the grain-filling period followed by continued moisture

India cuts soyoil, sunflower oil import tax

India has cut import taxes on crude and refined soyoil and sunflower oil by 7.5%, according to a government order, as part of efforts to keep a lid on prices.

The country produces less than half of the roughly 24 million tonnes of edible oil that it consumes annually. It imports the rest, buying palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia, soyoil from Brazil and Argentina, and sunflower oil, mainly from Russia and Ukraine.

Russian Wheat Export Tax Increases to $31.70/Ton for Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will increase to $31.70/ton, from $30.40/ton, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website. The rates are set weekly and take effect three working days after publication

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain for Week Ending Aug. 14: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Aug. 14 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 8% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 70% w/w

U.S. Corn Crops in Drought Area Rise to 37%: USDA

• Corn crops in areas of moderate to intense drought returned to 37% last week after dipping to 35% in the previous week
• Soybean area moved up a point to 31%

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 8% Below Normal as of Aug. 19

India has so far received 567.7 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 620.2 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Aug. 19.

• Rainfall in the southern peninsular region was at 5% above normal
• The northwestern region got 11% below normal rains