Global Ag News for Aug 17th

CROP TOUR: Drought Takes Toll on South Dakota Corn, Soybeans

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, unchanged in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 6 3/4; Soymeal up $0.27; Soyoil down 0.17.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 11 1/2 in HRW, down 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $0.48; Soyoil down 0.52.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 54 3/4 in SRW, up 59 1/4 in HRW, up 36 in HRS; Corn is up 25; Soybeans up 25 3/4; Soymeal up $11.30; Soyoil down 0.27.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 67 yuan ; Soymeal up 7; Soyoil up 42; Palm oil down 70; Corn down 14 — Malasyian Palm is down 57. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 57 ringgit (-1.28%) at 4390  amid pressure from weakening prices of soybean oil and concerns about sluggish demand.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. East: Isolated showers east through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for Aug. 16 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 16 were: SRW Wheat up 6,422 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,954, Corn up 3,488, Soybeans down 1,499, Soymeal down 1,979, Soyoil down 1,585.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 79 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for shipment in the 2021/22 marketing year.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to buy optional-origin milling wheat
• FEED WHEAT TENDER: Importers in the Philippines are tendering to purchase up to 280,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 27, via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 18.
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 19.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL has issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.
• WHEAT TENDER: South Korea’s largest feedmaker, Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI), has issued an international tender to purchase up to 207,000 tonnes of animal feed corn sourced from optional origins.

NOPA July soy crush at 155.105 million bushels, below all estimates

The U.S. soybean processing pace was below all trade estimates for a second straight month in July, although the crush did rise modestly from a two-year low the prior month, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

• NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans crushed in the United States, processed just 155.105 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 1.8% from the 152.410 million bushels crushed in June and down 10.2% from 172.794 million bushels in July 2020.
• It was the second smallest monthly tally for any month since September 2019 and the smallest July crush since 2017 as processors face tightening supplies and rising prices for soybeans.
• The July crush had been expected at 159.062 million bushels, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 156.200 million to 164.000 million bushels, with a median of 158.900 million bushels. (Full Story)
  • The crush has fallen short of the consensus market estimate for the six straight months as more processors than normal idled plants seasonally for needed maintenance.
• In a monthly report last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture trimmed its 2020/21 marketing year U.S. crush forecast by 15 million bushels to reflect the recent slowdown in crushing. WASDE09
• NOPA said soyoil supplies among its members as of July 31 rose to 1.617 billion lbs after three months of declines, up from 1.537 billion lbs at the end of June.
  • Oil stocks had been expected to drop to 1.505 billion lbs, based on estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.435 billion to 1.606 billion lbs, with a median of 1.500 billion.
• Soymeal exports last month totaled 719,508 tons, versus 714,729 tons in June and 876,159 tons in July 2020, according to NOPA.

U.S. Inspected 755k Tons of Corn for Export, 278k of Soybean

In week ending Aug. 12, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 278k tons vs 115k the previous wk, 933k a yr ago
• Wheat: 441k tons vs 654k the previous wk, 496k a yr ago
• Corn: 755k tons vs 745k the previous wk, 1,139k a yr ago

CROP TOUR: Drought Takes Toll on South Dakota Corn, Soybeans

A lack of rain in southeastern South Dakota was hitting yield potential for corn and soybeans, according to scouts Monday on the first day of the four-day Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• Corn yield potential averaged 140.1 bu/acre after 10 stops in Minnehaha, McCook, Hanson, Davison, Aurora and Douglas counties, with a low of 102.4 bu in McCook and high of 167.4 in Aurora
• That’s below the crop tour average last year of 179.2 bu and the three-year average of 170.4
• “You really notice the effects of dryness in this part of the country,” says Bruce Blythe, market analyst at Pro Farmer and a crop tour
  • “There’s a lot of green from the highway but once you get to the field, the lower part of the corn plants were often brown”

SOYBEANS

• Soybean pod counts averaged 1,131.4 pods in a 3-by-3-food square, with a low of 420 pods in Davison and a high of 1,654 pods in Minnehaha
  • The average is below 1,250.9 pods on the tour last year but above the three-year average of 1,036.1 pods
• While the pod counts were closer to normal for this part of the country, soils in most fields were dry several inches down into the dirt and rains were needed to boost prospects
• “The pod count in the beans in eastern South Dakota was better than expected but, as we went west, it got drier,” says Tim Gregerson, a Nebraska farmer and crop scout
• NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields

 CROP TOUR: South Dakota Corn Yields Down 15%, Soy Pods Off 20%

Corn yields in South Dakota avg 151.5 bu/acre, according to 88 samples taken Monday by participants on Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

• That compares with 2020 South Dakota tour avg of 179.2 bu/acre; three-year avg of 170.4
• Soybean pod count in 3-by-3-foot square avg 996.9 pods, according to 88 samples
  • That’s down from 1,250.9 pods last year; 1,036.1 three-year avg
  • NOTE: The crop tour does not project soybean yields
• NOTE: Drought Takes Toll on South Dakota Corn, Soybeans
• NOTE: USDA on Aug. 12 forecast South Dakota corn yields at 133 bu/acre and soybean yields at 39 bu/acre

 CROP TOUR: Ohio Corn Yields Look ‘Decent,’ Soybean Podcounts Low

Corn yields in Northern Ohio are “decent,” Mike Berdo, a scout on the Midwest crop tour’s eastern leg and a farmer from Washington, Iowa, says in interview Monday.

• Corn yields were averaging ~174.7 bu/acre after nine stops through midday, Berdo says
  • Last year, overall tour yield average for Ohio was 167.69 bu; three-year average is 167.20 bu, tour data shows
• Soybeans averaged ~432.2 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square
  • “Low podcount so far in Ohio,” Berdo says, attributing that in part to late plantings
  • NOTE: The crop tour doesn’t estimate soybean yields
  • The three-year average for Ohio is 1055.97 pods
  • Last year, Ohio averaged 1155.68 pods
• On another route in Northern Ohio, corn yields were averaging ~176.1 bu/acre after eight stops, says Brian Grete, editor of the Pro Farmer newsletter and leader of the eastern half of the Midwest crop tour
  • Soybeans averaged ~923.3 pods in 3-by-3-foot square after seven stops: Grete
  • It rained overnight and through much of the morning, so “beans have moisture to fill” and some were still flowering, Grete says in tweet
• NOTE: The eastern leg of the tour will make corn yield and soy pod count projections for the entire state of Ohio later on Monday

CROP TOUR: Ohio Corn Yield, Soy Pods Seen Well Above 3-Year Avg

Corn yields in Ohio are estimated to average 185.06 bu/acre, 11% higher than the 2018-2020 three-year average, according to the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour.

• Forecast based on 128 samples taken throughout the state Monday
• Ohio soybeans are seen averaging ~1,195.37 pods in a 3-by-3-foot square, based on 127 samples; that’s 13% above the three-year average, tour data show
• “I’m sure Ohio is looking forward to the harvest season because farmers there have struggled the last few years,” said crop scout Brian Strasser, referring to prior weather challenges
  • Still, Strasser, a manager at Sinclair Tractor in Iowa, added that corn and soybeans on his route in northern Ohio looked “very immature” for this point in the season
• NOTE: Corn and soybeans in eastern Midwest states such as Ohio are widely expected to look good this week compared with crops in the western region, where drought is expected to reduce yields

DRV Cuts 2021 German Wheat-Crop Estimate Following Heatwave

Germany’s 2021 wheat harvest is now seen at 22.4m tons, down from a July estimate for 22.8m tons, agricultural cooperatives group DRV said Tuesday in a statement.

• Total grain output now estimated at 42.9m tons, 0.9% lower y/y
  • NOTE: Last month, production was projected to increaseversus 2020
• Returns have been “below expectations” after a cold spring that inhibited plant growth was followed by a heat wave during the key grain-filling phase for crops
  • Harvest pace has picked up recently amid dry weather
• Barley crop estimate cut to 10.4m tons, versus 10.5m tons in July
• Corn crop estimate left about steady at 3.8m tons
• Rapeseed crop estimate cut to 3.5m tons, from 3.7m tons
• “In Europe and other important grain-growing regions of the world, the expected harvest quantities are also not being achieved:” DRV

Brazil C-S Winter Corn Harvest 70% Done as of Aug. 12: Agrural

Compares with 58% a week earlier and 77% a year before, consultancy firm AgRural says in emailed report about the harvest in Brazil’s Center-South region.

• Harvest is practically done in Mato Grosso state; pace of works in Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo is similiar to that seen last year
• Harvest in Parana is lagging behind, as moisture in grains is still high

India’s palm oil imports fall 43.55% year-on-year to 4.65 lakh tonne in July: SEA – Accord Fintech (India)

Industry body Solvent Extractors Association (SEA) said India’s palm oil imports fell 43.55 per cent year-on-year to 4.65 lakh tonne in July 2021 as compared to import of 8.24 lakh tonne palm oils in July 2020 due to higher domestic stocks. The country’s total vegetable oil imports declined 37 per cent to 9.17 lakh tonne in July this year, compared to 15.17 lakh tonne in the year-ago period. The share of palm oil is more than 60 per cent of the country’s total vegetable oil imports.

SovEcon Edges Russian Wheat Crop Estimate Down on Low Yields

Russia’s 2021 wheat crop is now seen at 76.2m tons, versus a prior estimate for 76.4m tons, consultant SovEcon says in an emailed report.

• Decrease is due to low spring-wheat yields in the Volga region, which saw hot, dry July weather
• Spring-wheat yields in Siberia and the Urals are the one remaining unknown for production, as harvesting has yet to begin
• Crops in Siberia are expected to be above average as rain recently improved conditions, while the Urals were hit by drought and should see below-average results

 Malaysia Aug. 1-15 Palm Oil Exports -23.9% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 23.9% m/m during Aug. 1-15, according to Intertek Testing Services.

China’s sow herd shrinks in July, first decline in almost 2 years

China’s sow herd declined for the first time in nearly two years, contracting 0.5% in July from the previous month, state media said, after a plunge in hog prices pushed many farmers to get rid of unproductive sows.

In year-on-year terms, however, it was still up 25%, according to National Development and Reform Commission spokesman Meng Wei.

Prices have plummeted in recent months amid an abundance of supply due to efforts by the world’s biggest pork producer to rapidly rebuild its breeding herd following a devastating epidemic of African swine fever during 2018 and 2019.

Farmers lost an average 665 yuan ($102) per head during June, according to agriculture ministry data. An executive at the country’s largest pork processor, WH Group, told reporters last week that the elimination of sows during June had been significant and could push up live hog prices by the second half of 2022.

The culling of low efficiency sows has improved the structure of the breeding herd and all high performing sows were retained, state broadcaster CCTV cited an agriculture ministry official as saying.

China had 45.6 million sows as of end-June, some 2% more than the end of 2017, the last year before the African swine fever epidemic. The ministry said this month it was aiming for a herd of 43 million by 2025.  Overall, China’s pig herd increased 0.8% in July from the prior month and was 31% larger than a year earlier, the country’s state planning agency said in a separate media briefing. China’s pig herd totalled 439 million at the end of June, an agriculture official said recently, equal to 99.4% of the level at the end of 2017.

The Andersons Sells Rail Leasing Business for $550 Million

The Andersons Inc. on Monday said it sold its rail leasing business to American Industrial Transport Inc. for about $550 million in cash. The company said the sale allows it to aligns its portfolio around its core verticals of grain and fertilizer. The Andersons also said the sale will enable further debt reduction and increases its financial flexibility for investment.