Global Ag News for Aug 14.24

TOP HEADLINES

Romania’s 2024 Wheat Harvest is Bigger Than Last Year: Minister

Romania’s wheat harvest will exceed last year’s crop by 1 million tons despite the drought, Agriculture Minister Florin Barbu said, citing preliminary data.

• The corn and sunflower harvests will likely decline because of the damage done by heat waves in July and August, but Romania will be able to secure its internal consumption, Barbu said in an interview with Antena 3 TV station
• NOTE: Romania’s wheat crop stood at about 10.6 million tons in 2023, according to data from the National Statistics Office

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 2 in SRW, down 2 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $1.00; Soyoil up 0.50.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 16 in SRW, down 10 1/2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 35; Soymeal down $10.20; Soyoil down 1.53.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 2 1/4 in SRW, down 5 3/4 in HRW, up 10 in HRS; Corn is down 3; Soybeans down 55; Soymeal down $15.50; Soyoil down 2.73.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 16.2% in SRW, down 15.1% in HRW, down 18.2% in HRS; Corn is down 20.0%; Soybeans down 23.5%; Soymeal down 20.6%; Soyoil down 15.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 24) Soybeans down 30 yuan; Soymeal down 75; Soyoil down 144; Palm oil down 96; Corn down 13 — Malaysian Palm is up 39.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 39 ringgit (+1.06%) at 3729.

There were changes in registrations (-64 Soyoil). Registration total: 424 SRW Wheat contracts; 6 Oats; 15 Corn; 10 Soybeans; 861 Soyoil; 0 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 13 were: SRW Wheat up 1,075 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,740, Corn up 9,403, Soybeans up 13,118, Soymeal up 5,242, Soyoil up 4,071.

 

Northern Plains: Scattered showers continue in the region through at least Friday, but could stay in the region into next week. The rain could interrupt wheat harvest and reduce quality if it becomes heavy, but most areas should see light or moderate amounts. That would be more beneficial for filling corn and soybeans except for areas that continue to be too wet.

Central/Southern Plains: Several disturbances will push through the region this week with scattered showers nearly every day through at least Friday and possibly into next week, unusual for mid-August but overall good for filling corn and soybeans. Temperatures are hot in the south and will gradually rise to the north. Next week could feature more intense heat though models are in a large disagreement about that potential.

Midwest: A more developed system will slowly push through Wednesday through Saturday with more widespread precipitation throughout the region. A few showers may go through midweek as well, but models are in disagreement over that. Temperatures continue to be mild through at least the weekend but probably well into next week as well. The combination of wetter and mild is a good one for filling corn and soybeans.

Delta: Soil moisture continues to fall across the region as cotton and soybeans find less and less moisture to use as they fill. Several systems will move through the Corn Belt this week, which may clip the northern end of the region with some showers, but most likely it stays unfavorably dry again this week. There is a better chance with a front moving through this weekend. Temperatures will rise out ahead of the front, but fall behind it. Still, it is largely hot and dry in much of the region, unfavorable for filling cotton and soybeans.

Canadian Prairies: A few disturbances will move through the region with scattered showers through at least the weekend and likely through next week as well. The rainfall will be unlikely to be helpful and could cause a reduction in quality and delays to harvest in some areas.

Europe: Temperatures will be hot for much of the continent this week. A front that moves into western areas Tuesday and Wednesday, getting stuck from the Alps to Poland where showers will continue the rest of the week. Another front moves in behind it to push it eastward this weekend with scattered showers as well. Some areas are getting needed rain while others are being left out. Spain, Italy, and southeastern countries have had a hot and drier summer season that has been stressing summer crops but should cash in on some rainfall. Germany has been the epicenter of wet conditions and more falling this week won’t help either.

August Deliveries

• Soybeans
  • 8/13: 0
  • Total:  123
• Soybean Oil
  • 8/13: 95
  • Total: 1,571
• Soybean Meal
  • Total: 0

 

The player sheet for Aug. 13 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 10,000 corn, sellers of 11,500 soybeans, sellers of 5,000 soymeal, and buyers of 5,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• DIRECT WHEAT PURCHASE PLAN: Egypt’s state commodities buyer GASC is in talks about a large purchase of wheat in direct negotiations on Tuesday without issuing an international tender, traders in Europe and the Middle East said. Traders said the volume could involve up to 30 consignments of around 50,000 to 60,000 metric tons. Russian-origin wheat was said to be among the origins involved in the talks, but it was unclear whether wheat from other countries could also be involved.
• SOYBEAN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 137,160 metric tons of corn to Mexico during the 2024/2025 marketing year that begins Sept. 1, 2024.
• WHEAT SALE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat.

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 9 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen higher than last week at 1.08m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 23.846m bbl vs 23.767m a week ago

 

Brazil 2023-24 Corn Crop Seen at 115.6M Tons: Conab

Output est. down from 115.86m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 117.1m tons
• Yield seen lower at 5,516 kg/ha vs 5,553 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 20.965m ha vs 20.863m ha last month
• Soybean production est. raised slightly to 147.4m tons vs 147.3m tons

 

Adecoagro to Cut Corn Acreage in 2024-25 After Leafhopper Plague

South American farming company Adecoagro will reduce its corn planting area during Argentina’s 2024-25 crop season after a leafhopper plague lowered output in 2023-24, executives said on an earnings call.

• Adecoagro prefers to lower its exposure and switch to more suitable crops, said CFO Emilio Federico Gnecco
• NOTE: Argentina farmers start to plant corn next month
• The company’s production of soybeans, corn, wheat, sunflowers, peanuts and rice will be almost 1.1m metric tons in the 2023-24 season, up 34% y/y

 

3tentos: Brazil Crop Input Sales Seen Back to Normal in 2024-25

Tres Tentos’s executives said during an earnings call with analysts.

• Company expects sales of higher technology inputs such as fungicides for wheat in third quarter and accelerating seed deliveries, said COO João Marcelo Dumoncel
• Seed sales are delayed but order backlog rebuilt significantly: COO
• Company is expanding presence in central Mato Grosso and southern Rio Grande do Sul states with new crop inputs stores
• NOTE: Crop inputs revenue dropped 31% in 2Q24

 

EU Soft Wheat Exports Fall 22% Y/y In Season to August 11

The EU’s soft wheat exports in the season that began July 1 totaled 3.1 million tons as of Aug. 11, compared with 4 million tons by the same time a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Egypt with 441k tons, Nigeria with 378k tons, and Morocco with 327k tons,
• Barley exports were 1.15m tons, down 21% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 2.42m tons, up 19% y/y
• NOTE: Export data for France is incomplete from the beginning of 2024

 

EU 2024/25 soybean imports down 20% by Aug 11, rapeseed up 55%

European Union soybean imports so far in the 2024/25 season that started in July had reached 1.21 million metric tons by Aug. 11, down 20% compared with 1.52 million tons a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Tuesday.

EU rapeseed imports in the same period totalled 0.44 million tons, up 55% against 0.29 million a year earlier.

The bloc’s soymeal imports so far this season had reached 2.24 million tons, up 13% from 1.99 million a year earlier, while EU palm oil imports were at 0.29 million tons, down 31% from 0.42 million, the data showed.

 

Golden Agri Sees 2024 Palm Oil Output Falling 5% Y/y on Weather

Golden Agri expects 2024 palm oil production to drop 5% y/y due to the impact of adverse weather from El Niño, Director Richard Fung, said during a briefing on Wednesday.

• Output of fresh fruit bunches was at 4m tons in 1H vs 4.4m tons in 1H 2023
  • Palm product output at 1.21m tons in 1H, -9% y/y
• Replanting and El Niño in 2023 were major drivers of output drop
  • Co. accelerated replanting to 10,800 ha in 1H, +66% y/y
• Palm oil supply growth in Indonesia this year is expected to be limited, but geopolitical tensions and extreme weather may disrupt the supply of vegetable oils
• Demand growth for food, oleochemicals and biofuels will be sustained this year

 

Iraq to Build Five Silos to Boost Grain Storage: Ministry

Iraqi cabinet approved plan to build silos in the provinces of Najaf, Anbar, Muthanna, Wasit and Kirkuk provinces, with total capacity of 300k tons, according to a trade ministry statement.

Ministry to seek agreements with international firms to build new silos

 

El Niño Triggers 3 Million-Ton Corn Deficit in Southern Africa

• Weather phenomenon causes worst dry spell in 100 years
• More than 30 million people in the region need food aid

Southern African nations battling the fallout of a record El Niño-induced drought this year will need to import at least an additional 3 million tons of corn in the coming months, driving up food costs, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network said.

Farmers from Angola to Zambia and Mozambique suffered the worst dry spell in more than a century during the middle of the growing season earlier this year. That wiped out vast swathes of the main crop of corn, or maize as it’s known locally.

More than 30 million people impacted by the El Niño-induced drought will need humanitarian help through March, Fews Net said in a report late Tuesday. Peak regional food-aid requirements will be about 25% higher than the previous severe drought caused by the weather phenomenon in 2016-17, the US Agency for International Development-funded organization said.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto Near Puerto Rico With 70 Mph Winds

Tropical Storm Ernesto was moving northwest at 16 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 2:00 a.m. AST.

“Heavy Rain And Strong Winds From Ernesto Beginning To Move Over Puerto Rico”: NHC

 

 

 

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