Global Ag News for Aug 13th

China’s Port Shutdown Raises Fears of Closures Worldwide 

Wheat prices overnight are up 4 3/4 in SRW, up 2 1/4 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 1/2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $0.05; Soyoil up 0.56.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 36 1/4 in SRW, up 35 1/2 in HRW, up 23 in HRS; Corn is up 14 1/4; Soybeans up 9 1/2; Soymeal up $0.03; Soyoil up 0.91.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 56 1/2 in SRW, up 68 3/4 in HRW, up 35 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 25 1/2; Soybeans down 3; Soymeal up $4.10; Soyoil down 0.90.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 47 yuan ; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil down 54; Corn up 15 — Malasyian Palm is up 31. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 31 ringgit (+0.69%) at 4505 amid pressure from weakening prices of soybean oil and concerns about sluggish demand.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday-Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near to above normal north and below normal south Sunday-Monday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Monday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Saturday.

The player sheet for Aug. 12 had funds: net buyers of 12,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, buyers of 1,500 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 0 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 12 were: SRW Wheat up 9,454 contracts, HRW Wheat up 5,205, Corn up 20,136, Soybeans down 592, Soymeal up 3,246, Soyoil up 4,519.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 298 Soyoil; 155 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China and 198,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, both for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased some 207,000 tonnes of corn in an international tender which closed on Wednesday
• BARLEY, CORN TENDER: A state agency in North Cyprus has issued a tender to buy about 30,000 tonnes of animal feed barley and 5,000 tonnes of corn
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FAILED FEED WHEAT TENDER: A group of importers in Thailand is believed to have rejected all offers and made no purchase in an international tender for up to 139,500 tonnes of animal feed wheat which closed on Wednesday

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 27, via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 18.
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat,
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL has issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.

Dryness and Frosts Threaten Argentina’s Wheat Crop, Bourses Say

After Argentina’s farmers finished seeding wheat this week, attention now turns to how the plants are developing, with a lack of rain and bouts of frost starting to curb yield potential, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in a report.

• The bad weather, especially the dryness, led the Rosario Board of Trade to cut its wheat production estimate
• Estimate fell 1.95% to 20.1m metric tons from last month’s 20.5m

Planalytics Raises U.S. Soybean Forecast to 50.20 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 50.00 bu/acre, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

• Iowa 57.00 vs 56.60
• Illinois 60.30 vs 59.60
• Indiana 57.50 vs 57.00

Planalytics Raises U.S. Corn Forecast to 176.00 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is up from previous forecast of 175.30 bu/acre, and has risen for a fifth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • Iowa 195.10 vs 194.10
  • Illinois 201.20 vs 197.30
  • Indiana 188.40 vs 185.90

Planalytics Lowers U.S. Spring Wheat Forecast to 33.50 Bu/Acre

Outlook for this year’s crop yield is down from previous forecast of 34.60 bu/acre, and has fallen for a fifth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

• Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):
  • North Dakota 30.80 vs 32.40
  • Minnesota 43.20 vs 44.00
  • Montana 26.20 vs 26.50

U.S. Barge Shipments of Grain Fell 16% Last Week: USDA

Shipments along the Mississippi, Illinois, Ohio and Arkansas rivers declined in the week ending Aug. 7 from the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 8% from the previous week
• Barge shipments of wheat rose 28% from the previous week

China’s Port Shutdown Raises Fears of Closures Worldwide 

• Port of Los Angeles anticipates disruptions from China’s move

A Covid outbreak that has partially shut one of the world’s busiest container ports is heightening concerns that the rapid spread of the delta variant will lead to a repeat of last year’s shipping nightmares.

The Port of Los Angeles, which saw its volumes dip because of a June Covid outbreak at the Yantian port in China, is bracing for another potential decline because of the latest shutdown at the Ningbo-Zhoushan port in China, a spokesman said. Anton Posner, chief executive officer of supply-chain management company Mercury Resources, said that many companies chartering ships are already adding Covid contract clauses as insurance so they won’t have to pay for stranded ships.

Golden Agri Sees Indonesia’s Palm Oil Output Growing 7% in 2021

Movement restrictions to contain the spread of coronavirus will have little impact on Indonesia’s palm oil industry as a whole, according to Richard Fung, director of investor relations at Golden Agri Resources, in a virtual briefing on Friday.

• Indonesia’s palm oil output is expected to grow at a healthy level this year
• Meanwhile, Malaysia will see flat to slightly negative growth for its palm oil production compared to last year due to a shortage of foreign workers
• Golden Agri’s 1H sales volume fell 4% y/y to 4.78m tons because of some delays in logistics processes
• Company sees normalization of sales in 2H due to demand

Argentina 2021-22 Soy Planting Estimate Falls by 1.8%: Rosario

Farmers will plant 16.4m hectares (40.5m acres) of soybeans in the upcoming season, continuing a multiyear decline in area, the Rosario Board of Trade says in a report.

• The estimate is 1.8% lower than a preliminary forecast that Rosario published last month
• Production estimate is unchanged from last month at 49m metric tons
• Farmers are preferring corn because it’s more profitable, performs better in drought conditions and pays fewer taxes: Rosario
• 2021-22 planting of tradeable corn seen climbing to 6.8m ha, with record production of 55m tons
  • That compares to estimates for the previous season of 6.4m ha and 51m tons

Argentine Corn, Wheat Crop Estimates Aug. 12:

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2020-21 corn production estimate unchanged from last week
• Corn harvest 94.7% complete vs 89.2%

SovEcon Raises Estimates for Ukraine Wheat, Corn Harvests

SovEcon has increased its outlook for Ukraine’s 2021 corn harvest to 39.3m tons, up 0.7m tons from a prior estimate, the consultant says in an emailed note.

• Cites higher government plantings data and better yield prospects
  • Still, yield potential remains below the all-time high set in 2018 due to recent heat and dryness
• Wheat crop seen at 32.6m tons, up 2.3m tons from prior estimate
  • Yields are at or near records across the country
  • “Contrary to its neighbor Russia, Ukraine’s wheat crop hasn’t suffered substantially in recent weeks due to higher accumulated moisture reserves and the fact that it mainly produces winter-wheat”
• Ukraine and Romania are likely to partly offset lower wheat exports coming out of Russia, due to its smaller crop and export taxes

Russia Wheat, Ukraine Corn Crop Estimates Decline: StoneX Survey

Russia’s 2021 wheat harvest is now seen at 77.9m tons, down from last month’s estimate of 83m tons, according to results of a StoneX client survey.

• Ukraine wheat crop estimate raised to 30.7m tons, from 29.5m tons
• Ukraine corn crop estimate falls to 37m tons, from 39m tons

Russian Wheat Export Tax Edges Lower to $30.4/Ton for Next Week

Russia’s wheat export customs duty will decline to $30.4/ton, from $31/ton, the Agriculture Ministry said Friday on its website.

French Soft-Wheat Harvest Approaches Three-Quarter Mark: AgriMer

Some 72% of France’s soft-wheat crop was harvested as of Aug. 9, versus 100% at the same time last year, FranceAgriMer data showed on Friday.