Global Ag News for Aug 11th

TODAY – EIA WEEKLY ENERGY REPORT

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 1/2 in SRW, down 4 1/2 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 14 3/4; Soymeal down $0.06; Soyoil up 1.43.

For the week so far wheat prices are unchanged in SRW, up 4 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 15; Soymeal up $0.12; Soyoil up 0.78.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 20 in SRW, up 37 1/4 in HRW, up 9 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 10 3/4; Soybeans up 2 1/4; Soymeal up $5.00; Soyoil down 0.99.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 28 yuan ; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil up 138; Palm oil up 226; Corn down 9 — Malasyian Palm is up 261. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 261 ringgit (+6.21%) at 4461 the most since early 2020 after a report showed stockpiles in second-biggest grower Malaysia contracted for the first time in five months, confounding predictions for an increase.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday-Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday-Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and near to below normal southeast Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Thursday.

The player sheet for Aug. 10 had funds: net buyers of 6,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, zero corn, buyers of 3,500 soybeans, zero soymeal, and  buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of August 4 were: SRW Wheat down 661 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,292, Corn down 6,017, Soybeans down 2,771, Soymeal down 1,551, Soyoil down 71.

There were changes in registrations (-10 Soyoil) Registration total: 0 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 0 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 335 Soyoil; 155 Soymeal; 1,288 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• SOYBEAN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 130,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• CORN SALE: Private exporters reported the sale of 152,400 tonnes of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year and 30,480 tonnes of corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2022/23 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: A South Korean flour mill bought an estimated 135,100 tonnes of wheat to be sourced from the United States, Canada and Australia in a tender.
• SOYBEAN TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp has issued an international tender to purchase around 3,700 tonnes of soybeans free of genetically-modified organisms. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 19.
• DURUM TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL has issued a tender to import around 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin durum wheat under a preferential tariff import quota. The deadline for submission of price offers is Aug. 24.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said it will seek 80,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 100,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by Nov. 30 and arrive in Japan by Jan. 27, via a simultaneous buy-and-sell (SBS) auction that will be held on Aug. 18.
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 400,000 tonnes of wheat

ETHANOL: U.S. Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending Aug. 6 are based on nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen slightly lower than last week at 1.01m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 22.617m bbl vs 22.649m a week ago
• The EIA in Washington is scheduled to release the report at 10:30am Wednesday

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rose 3.3% in Season Through Aug. 8

Soft-wheat shipments during the season that began July 1 amounted to 1.79m tons as of Aug. 8, versus 1.74m tons in a similar period a year earlier, the European Commission said Tuesday on its website.

• NOTE: Data for the prior season include trade for the U.K. until Dec. 31, 2020, when the country departed the EU customs union
  • The Commission has said data is not complete due to missing figures for Italy in recent weeks
• Top soft-wheat destinations were South Korea (302k tons), the U.K. (217k tons) and Algeria (187k tons)
• EU barley exports totaled 1.44m tons, compared with 1.27m tons a year earlier
• EU corn imports reached 1.23m tons, against 1.56m tons a year earlier

Brazil’s Conab Cut Corn Crop Est. By 7.2% to 86.7m Tons

Reduction is due to adverse weather conditions for the second corn crop, the state-run agriculture agency Conab said in its 11th report for the 2020-21 crop.

• New estimate matches the average of 86.7m tons in a Bloomberg survey
• That is compared with 102.6m tons in 2019-20
• Second corn-crop harvest is seen at 60.3m tons, down from 67m tons estimated last month and 75m tons in previous season
• NOTE: Crop forecaster Agroconsult cut its estimate for second corn cropfrom 65.3m tons to 60.9m tons amid frost
• Conab kept unchanged corn import outlook to 2.3m tons and cut export forecast to 23.5m tons versus 29.5m tons seen last month
  • Lower export outlook is due to reduced availability of corn amid crop losses; also, some export contracts have been converted to domestic market, Conab says in the report
  • Ending stocks seen falling to 5.1m tons versus 5.5m tons seen last month and 10.6m tons in previous season
• Soybean output est. slightly raised to 136m tons versus 135.9m tons last month; compares with 124.8m tons in 2019-20

Malaysia July Palm Stockpiles -7.3% M/m to 1.5M Tons: MPOB

Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, fell 7.3% to 1.5 million tons in July from a month earlier, Malaysian Palm Oil Board says in statement today.

• Palm oil exports -0.8% m/m to 1.41m tons
• Imports -51.9% m/m to 54,381 tons
• Crude palm oil production -5.2% m/m to 1.52m tons

Russian Wheat Crop Seen as Shrinking — Market Talk

Russia’s wheat crop is projected to be sliding, with the USDA expected to cut its outlook for Russian wheat production in this week’s Wasde report, AgResource says. “AgResource estimates the final Russian wheat crop in a range of 73 [million] -76.5 million metric tons, which is well below the July WASDE forecast of 85.0 million tons,” the firm says.

Russian Wheat Yields Are Running Lower Than Last Year: Ministry

Russian farmers harvested 16.1m hectares of wheat as of Aug. 9, versus about 14.9m hectares as of early August last year, according to data from the Agriculture Ministry’s analytical center. The average wheat yield is 3.36 tons/hectare, compared with 3.67 tons/hectare last year

Brazil second crop corn production drops again as unfavorable late season conditions continue – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Unfavorable late season conditions and continued harvest delays throughout key second crop corn areas in the south slash 2020/21 Brazil total corn production by 3% to 86.9 [83.5–89.8] million tons, now <1% and 6.5% below the latest estimates from CONAB (86.7 million tons (10 August)) and USDA (93 million tons (12 July)).

Canada wheat production plunges as another heat wave returns to the Southern Prairies – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 Canada wheat production is slashed by 4% to 29.1 [26.1–33.4] million tons, as scorching heat continues to hit large swaths of Western Canada amid lack of moisture. Our current estimate puts planted area at 9.7 million hectares, down 4.6% from last season, which is slightly above the StatCan’s latest estimate of 9.5 million hectares in its Principal Field Crop Areas report (29 June). In July’s WASDE (12 July), USDA placed Canada wheat production at 31.5 million tons, down from its previous update of 32 million tons.

Continued depletion of soil moisture in the Northern Plains cuts U.S. spring wheat yields – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Plummeting spring wheat vegetation density and continued depletion of soil moisture in the Northern Plains lower 2021/22 U.S. total wheat production by 2% to 46.9 [43.6–48.8] million tons. Our current median estimate is below the USDA’s latest estimate (from July WASDE) of 47.5 million tons.

Argentine farmers have sold 26.8 mln tonnes of 2020/21 soy – ags ministry

Argentine growers have sold 26.8 million tonnes of soy from the recently harvested 2020/21 season, the Ministry of Agriculture said in a report that was issued on Tuesday and included data updated through Aug. 4.

The pace of sales of the oilseed was behind that of last year, when sales of 28.9 million tonnes had been registered by the same date, according to official data.

Argentina is the world’s No. 1 exporter of soymeal livestock feed used to fatten hogs and poultry from Europe to Southeast Asia. Harvest of the 2020/21 crop ended in June at 43.5 million tonnes, down from 49 million tonnes collected in the 2019/20 season, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

Argentine farmers have sold 36.4 million tonnes of their 2020/21 corn crop so far, the ministry said in the report, about 3 million tonnes more than had been sold by this time last year.

Malaysia’s Aug 1-10 Palm Oil Exports 368,763 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments decline 10.3% m/m from 410,915 tons exported during July 1-10, according to AmSpec Agri on Wednesday.