Global Ag News for Apr 9.24

TOP HEADLINES

Indian Flour Millers See Wheat Output Rising 2.8% Y/y in 2023-24

Wheat production in the world’s second-biggest grower is expected to rise to 105.8 million tons in 2023-24 from 102.9 million a year earlier on higher acreage and better yields, according to the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation.

• The acreage rose to almost 34m hectares from 33.6m hectares, according to Agriwatch, a researcher hired by the millers’ group to survey farmers during January and March in the main growing regions
  • Yields 3.1 tons/hectare vs 3.06 tons year earlier
• India will buy 31m-32m tons of wheat from 2023-24 crop for state reserves, compared with 26.2m tons a year earlier, Food Corp. of India Chairman Ashok Meena told reporters on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the millers’ group
  • That will be enough to meet demand for welfare programs and open market sales to control prices, if needed
  • Purchases totaled 1m tons as of April 7, compared with 700,000 tons a year ago
• NOTE: The government needs 18.5m tons of wheat annually for its welfare programs

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 5 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/2; Soybeans down 1 3/4; Soymeal down $2.00; Soyoil up 0.16.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 7 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal up $0.90; Soyoil down 0.80.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 1/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 7; Soybeans down 11 3/4; Soymeal down $3.50; Soyoil down 0.10.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.8% in SRW, down 9.8% in HRW, down 10.6% in HRS; Corn is down 7.7%; Soybeans down 8.8%; Soymeal down 13.5%; Soyoil up 0.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 9 yuan; Soymeal up 5; Soyoil down 52; Palm oil down 132; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 26.  Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.61%) at 4321.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 8 were: SRW Wheat down 5,377 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,244, Corn down 20,174, Soybeans down 7,541, Soymeal down 5,538, Soyoil down 6,162.

Northern Plains: A few showers will occur today into Wednesday resulting in moisture totals varying from a trace to 0.35 inch. A few local totals as great as 0.50 inch may occur. Mostly dry weather is expected Thursday through April 15, although a few insignificant showers are possible in a few locations. April 15-18 rainfall will vary from 0.40 to 1.25 inches with a few amounts possibly pushing up against 2.00 inches. Mostly dry April 19-21. High temperatures will rise from the 40s and 50s Fahrenheit today to the 50s and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday through Monday will trend warmest with highs eventually reaching the 60s and 70s with a few extreme highs possibly reaching over 80 just before rain develops in that April 15-18 period.

Central/Southern Plains: Rain is likely tonight into Wednesday from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma and north-central Texas.  Amounts of 0.60 to 3.00 inches will result with the Red River Valley of the South Most likely to get the greatest rainfall. Mostly dry weather is expected in all other areas through the coming week. Warm temperatures are likely most of this coming week with highs in the 50s and 60s initially and then rising to the 70s and 80s late this week and during the weekend. Low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and 30s in the northwest and the 40s and 50s in the southeast Tuesday and then slowly rising through the 30s and 40s in the north and the 40s and 50s in the south late this week and into the weekend. Temperatures will trend a little cooler during the middle and latter part of next week with readings back closer to normal.

Midwest: A weakening storm system currently crossing the upper Midwest will drift northeastward. Meanwhile, a wave of low pressure along the storm’s trailing cold front will become the dominant system, resulting in heavy showers and locally severe thunderstorms across the South. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 4 to 8 inches or more from the southeastern Plains into the mid-South, as well as portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Rainfall should total an inch or more throughout the South, East, and lower Midwest. The threat of severe weather will peak during the first half of the week, starting in the south-central U.S. before shifting into the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 13 – 17 calls for the likelihood of near- or above-normal temperatures and precipitation across most of the country.

The player sheet for 4/8 had funds: net sellers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 500 corn, sellers of 1,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and sellers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL is believed to have purchased about 100,000 metric tons of soymeal expected to be sourced from Argentina or Brazil in an international tender last week.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.42m Tons of Corn for Export, 484k of Soybeans

In week ending April 4, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 484k tons vs 547k the previous wk, 679k a yr ago
• Wheat: 498k tons vs 569k the previous wk, 390k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,420k tons vs 1,472k the previous wk, 839k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 4

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 215k tons of the 484k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, Philippines led in wheat

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean harvest hits 78%, says AgRural

Brazil’s soybean harvest for the 2023/24 cycle had reached 78% of the planted area as of last Thursday, agribusiness consultancy AgRural said on Monday, up 4 percentage points from the previous week. The figure was below the 82% seen at the same time a year earlier.

AgRural analysts said in a statement that harvesting is now more concentrated in states where farmers planted their fields later in the season, such as Brazil’s southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The weather there allowed field work to advance “well” last week, according to the consultancy firm, while in the country’s north and northeast regions rains above historical levels have been an issue in some areas.

AgRural also said Brazil’s second corn crop, which represents about 75% of the national production each year, had seen another week of “contrasting conditions” in Brazil’s so-called center-south region.

Fields in top grain producing state Mato Grosso and neighboring Goias state have been developing well, but some areas of Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo states have struggled with the effects of heavy rains and high temperatures, it said.

“The most affected region so far is western Parana state, which is expected to see a drop in yields,” AgRural added.

Brazil’s second corn crop is planted after soybeans are harvested from the same fields. Planting was finalized last month.

Brazil 2023/24 Soybean Crop Seen At 145.46 Million Tns – AgResource

BRAZIL 2023/24 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 145.46 MILLION TNS VERSUS 143.92 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

BRAZIL 2023/24 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 114.19 MILLION TNS VERSUS 114.94 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST

Argentina cuts herbicide import taxes in boost for farmers

Argentina’s government will reduce tariffs on some herbicide imports in April, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on Monday just a month before the start of wheat sowing for the 2024/25 season in the South American country. Argentina is a key global food exporter and herbicides are a fundamental part of its agricultural production.

Tariffs of herbicide based on Atrazine, Glyphosate, and 2-4-D will be reduced to 12.6% from 35%, Caputo said in a social media post, adding tariffs on primary Atrazine will be lowered to 10.8% from 24%.

Argentine farmers harvested 15.1 million metric tons of wheat in the 2023/24 cycle, according to data from the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.

The 2024/25 agricultural campaign is set to start in the second half of May, amid low global prices and high production costs.

China’s drive to boost grain production hits bottleneck – state media

China’s drive to boost grain production has entered a bottleneck where it is difficult to increase production further, state media reported on Monday, as Beijing launched a new drive to raise domestic output by 50 million metric tons by 2030.

The world’s largest grains importer reported a record corn crop last year and bumper harvests of other grains but continues to aim for greater output, amid rising tensions with some trade partners, climate-related disasters and military conflicts.

“Under the current situation where it is increasingly difficult to increase production, the country has launched a new round of action to increase grain production capacity,” the state-run newspaper Economic Daily wrote.

Production of crops such as soybeans, corn, wheat and rice is being restricted by a shortage of labor, an aging farm workforce, a lack of arable land, the small scale of production units and a lack of farming technology, the report said.

“The key to improving comprehensive grain production capacity lies in science and technology,” it added.

Beijing has said it will focus on accelerating the use of high-yielding crop varieties and mechanization this year as it seeks to further improve food security.

It has also expanded its budget to stockpile grains and edible oils and strengthened policies to encourage grain planting.

“For arable land with poor conditions and difficulties in mechanizing, farmers are actively guided to plant corn, potatoes, soybeans and other high-productivity and stable-yielding crops to effectively supplement grain planting area and output,” it said.

WHEAT/CEPEA: Slow pace of byproducts trades limits price rises for wheat grains

The competition for high-quality wheat (PH 78) is fierce in this early April, scenario that boosted quotations in most regions surveyed by Cepea. Moreover, the increase of the exchange rate (which leads the national product to be more attractive to consumers) and the fact that Brazilian wheat growers are away from trades have also been sustaining prices.

On the other hand, the upward trend was limited last week by the slow pace of sales of wheat flour in Brazil. Players from the industry say they have difficulties to transfer values of the raw material to byproducts, which has been reducing profit margins.

Producers are focused on weather conditions. The transition from El Niño to La Niña can result in irregular rainfall during planting activities, but the volume of rains may be below-average during the harvest, which, in this case, would favor the activity.

According to data from Cepea, between March 28 and April 5, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased only 0.08% in Santa Catarina and 0.33% in Rio Grande do Sul, but upped 0.45% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 1.52% in São Paulo, 0.92% in Paraná and 0.26% in Rio Grande do Sul, with a slight decrease (-0.13%) in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations valued 1.1% against Real, at BRL 5.065 on April 5.

BYPRODUCTS – The price average for the wheat flour used for fresh dough was BRL 135.69 per 50-kilo bag in the first week of April in Curitiba (Paraná), the lowest level since February/22.

According to data from Secex, Brazil imported 510.49 thousand tons of wheat in March, 19.2% up compared to March/23 (428.3 thousand tons). Exports, in turn, amounted 830.2 thousand tons in the same period, against 646.3 thousand tons in March last year.

 

 

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