Global Ag News for Apr 9.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China boosts Indian rapeseed meal purchases after tariff on Canadian imports

• India’s rapeseed meal exports ease local price pressure
• China imposed 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports
• India could increase exports to 2.5 million tons, says SEA’s Mehta

China has bought 52,000 tons of Indian rapeseed meal in the past three weeks – four times the amount Beijing imported from India in the whole of 2024 – after Chinese authorities imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on Canadian imports, industry sources said.

India’s rapeseed meal exports will help China, the world’s top consumer, replace imports from Canada while easing pressure on local rapeseed prices in India, which is sitting on large stockpiles of the widely used animal feed.

“Chinese buyers started showing interest in Indian rapeseed meal in the last few weeks due to tariffs on Canadian supplies,” said an official with a leading rapeseed meal exporter.

China imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on rapeseed meal and oil imports from Canada starting on March 20.

China bought Indian rapeseed meal for prompt shipments at $220 to $235 per metric ton, on a cost and freight basis, said the sources, who declined to be named because they were not authorised to speak to media.

India, the world’s third-largest rapeseed producer, has struggled to export significant amounts of rapeseed meal to China because of higher prices.

In 2024, China imported 2.02 million metric tons of rapeseed meal from Canada, 504,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates, and 135,000 tons from Russia, according to customs data. It bought only 13,100 tons from India.

India exported more than 2 million tons of rapeseed meal, but China accounted for less than 1%.

“Chinese demand is huge. If its current buying momentum continues in the next few months, it could emerge as one of the biggest buyers of Indian rapeseed meal,” said one of the sources.

South Korea, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam traditionally account for the bulk of India’s rapeseed meal exports.

“India can raise shipments from around 2 million tons to 2.5 million tons this year, given the surplus in India and shortage in the world market,” said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors’ Association (SEA).

India’s rapeseed meal stocks are expected to rise as new season supplies begin to pick up.

Weak local demand has pushed Indian rapeseed meal prices to around $200 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, down from $248 in February and $278 a year ago, according to SEA data.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 in SRW, up 6 1/4 in HRW, up 3 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $2.20; Soyoil down 0.35.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 13 in SRW, up 10 1/4 in HRW, up 20 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans up 22; Soymeal up $10.10; Soyoil down 1.26.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 5 in SRW, up 10 3/4 in HRW, up 12 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 12 1/2; Soybeans down 15 3/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.38.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 1.7% in SRW, up 1.5% in HRW, up 1.5% in HRS; Corn is up 2.4%; Soybeans up 0.1%; Soymeal down 4.7%; Soyoil up 12.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 6 yuan; Soymeal up 31; Soyoil down 62; Palm oil down 118; Corn down 8 — Malaysian Palm is down 38.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 38 ringgit (-0.91%) at 4150.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 459 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 8 were: SRW Wheat down 9,083 contracts, HRW Wheat up 1,098, Corn down 24,490, Soybeans down 11,635, Soymeal down 8,543, Soyoil down 6,755.

 

DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE U.S. WILL HELP TO RECOVER FROM RECENT FLOODING

What to Watch:

• An active storm track in the last week caused damaging floods in the southern Midwest/Southeast U.S., delaying corn early plantings locally
• Widespread dryness expected in the next 10 days will help to recover from flood damages but will worsen soil moisture deficits along the Plains
• A divided temperature pattern is expected in mid-April, with warm conditions across the Plains and cool in the Midwest

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 08 APRIL 2025

What to Watch:

• Cool and dry weather in Argentina
• Warm and wet weather in Brazil

 

The player sheet for 4/8 had funds: net buyers of 3,500 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 240,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Spain for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.
• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: Leading South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat from optional origins in an international tender.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• DURUM WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 4 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.041m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.597m bbl vs 26.612m a week ago

 

CROP SURVEY: Brazil 2024-25 Corn Output Seen at 123.4M Tons

Brazil corn production seen 0.7m tons higher than the national forecast agency’s previous est., according to the avg in a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

• The range of estimates varied from 122m tons to 126.9m tons
• Brazil’s soybean crop seen 0.4m tons higher at 167.8m tons
• Last month, the agency raised its corn output est. by 0.7m tons and raised its soybean est. by 1.4m tons

 

US-China soybean trade at great risks amid intensification of trade tensions

Over the past months, the US-China trade tensions have escalated. Late February Trump added 10% additional tariffs (totally 20%) on Chinese goods. China responded with 10-15% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products starting from March 10, including 10% on soybeans. On April 2, Trump announced the reciprocal tariffs, including 34% for all Chinese goods, coming into effect April 9. On April 4, China responded with 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods, taking effect April 10. On April 7, Trump threatened extra 50% tariffs on Chinese goods if China doesn’t withdraw the 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products. The intensification of the US-China trade war poses great challenges to the soybean market, considering the U.S. is the second largest soybean exporter and China is the leading global soybean importer.

The impacts on 2024/25 U.S. soybean exports (Sep/Aug) could be marginal as China usually switches to Brazil for soybean supplies at this time of the year while recent market movements on forward physical deliveries and the U.S. dollar weakening should favor the U.S. beans in other importing countries. 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks are expected to reach a 5-year high due to last year’s production gains and resulting larger supply. For the next marketing year, U.S. farmers will certainly reduce soybean plantings substantially to manage the risks of the tariff wars with China. Similarly, the 2025/26 U.S. soybean export demand could drop substantially due to a lack of Chinese buyers; the ending stocks for 2025/26 could surge depending on the upcoming soybean plantings and production; and the U.S. soybean prices could be suppressed. On the other hand, Brazil will benefit from the US-China trade wars with firmer Chinese demand and bargaining power for price negotiation. Other soybean importers besides China will also be benefited from the lower U.S. soybean prices.

Alternatively, should the trade tensions between the U.S. and China ease (the probability is small), China would increase imports of the U.S. agricultural products to reduce the trade deficits. Given the expectation of shrinkage of soybean acreage, U.S. soybean prices could soar on firm demand and tight supply.

U.S. soybean export sales to China have so far remained strong with 640,916 tons for the latest week March 27- April 3, accounting for 76% of total sales for the week. Soybean deliveries to China have also been progressing in a rapid pace. The U.S. delivered 1.926 million tons of soybeans to China in March, a 25% increase from the month earlier, due to worries on the trade tensions and the affordable prices. Accumulated exports to China during Sep-Mar totaled 22.2 million tons, compared to 23.8 million tons for the prior season. The strong U.S. soybean sales to China are expected to pause after April 10 when the 34% tariffs on U.S. products come into effect.

Brazil soybean exports during the first two months of 2024/25 (Feb-Mar) reached an all-time high at 21.1 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the previous record set in 2023/24, according to Brazil government agency. Total 2024/25 soybean exports estimate was reduced slightly to 109.3 million tons from our previous estimate upon adverse weather and smaller production output in Rio Grande do Sul.

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 34% Y/y During Season to April 6

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 16.4m tons as of April 6, compared with 25m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with 2.33m tons, Morocco with 2.19m tons and Algeria with 1.36m tons
• Barley exports were at 3.91m tons, down 19% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 16.21m tons, up 13% y/y

 

Russia could boost corn exports to 4 million tonnes in new agricultural year – IKAR

Russia could boost corn exports to 4 million tonnes in the 2025-2026 agricultural year from 2.6 million tonnes in the current 2024-2025 agricultural year, Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) CEO Dmitry Rylko forecast on Tuesday at the AboutStarch 2025: Grain Processing Market Trends international conference in Moscow.

This is a baseline forecast, with the estimate ranging overall from 3 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes.

Russia boosted corn exports to 7.2 million tonnes in the 2023-2024 agricultural year from 5.5 million tonnes in the previous agricultural year. Iran was the main purchaser in this period, having increased its share in Russian supplies to 73% in the current agricultural year from 58% the previous year, though the volume has dropped to 1.759 million tonnes from 4.074 million tonnes owing to the decline in exports.

Turkey is also among the major buyers with a share of 18% totaling 443,000 tonnes, having been the largest importer of Russian corn in the 2022-2023 agricultural year at a share of 33% totaling 1.824 million tonnes, with Iran assuming the lead in the subsequent years.

IKAR’s baseline forecast for the corn harvest is 15 million tonnes this year versus 14 million tonnes in 2024.

IKAR preliminarily estimates the overall grain harvest at 129.5 million tonnes this year, excluding the new regions, versus 125.9 million tonnes in 2024. This is also a baseline forecast, with estimates ranging from 122 million tonnes to 137 million tonnes.

 

Warm weather outlook keeps Ukrainian wheat production unchanged

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 19.9 [18.9-20.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Warm and wet weather outlook keeps 2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production at 19.9 [18.9-20.9] million tons (mmt). Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 18.8 million tons.

The past two weeks featured warm and wet weather conditions across Ukraine, which have slightly improved soil moisture levels. But soil moisture levels across the main wheat producing Oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, and Zaporozhia) are still at a 6-year low. Additionally, cold spells and overnight frosts occurred last week, but no major damage has been observed yet.

According to the latest weather forecast, warm and relatively wet conditions will be in store for the next two weeks. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather condition and update our forecast accordingly.

 

U.S. Senators Push For Promotion of Renewable Fuels

A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators sent a letter to EPA head Lee Zeldin advocating for higher blending volumes of biofuels with other motor fuels. “We ask that the EPA raise RFS volumes for biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels to levels that are consistent with production and availability,” the Senators say in the letter, which is signed by Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Min.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) among others. “Biofuels are a large economic driver for rural America as farmers’ crops are used for feedstocks and many production facilities are located in small communities,” the letter reads. “That is at risk if RVO standards are set too low.”

 

US oil, biofuel group recommends 5.25 billion gallons in biomass diesel mandates, sources say

A U.S. and biofuel coalition recommended that the Environmental Protection Agency propose federal mandates for biomass diesel blending for 2026 at 5.25 billion gallons, which would be a significant increase from previous mandates, two sources familiar with the matter said.

The coalition also recommended total federal biofuel blending mandates for 2026 at 25 billion gallons, the sources said. The coalition, led by the American Petroleum Institute, a top U.S. oil trade group, presented the figures to the EPA in a meeting last week.

While the recommendations were for one year of mandates, the EPA is expected to release a proposal that covers both 2026 and 2027, Reuters previously reported.

API declined to comment on specific numbers, while the EPA did not respond to a request for comment.

The coalition’s suggestion of 5.25 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel mandates was slightly lower than the range of 5.5 billion to 5.75 billion gallons considered ahead of the meeting and previously reported by Reuters.

Big Oil and the Farm Belt’s biofuel makers are traditional competitors in the multibillion-dollar U.S. gasoline market, but have come together to form a consensus at the request of the White House in recent months in hopes of avoiding the type of clashes that defined the first Trump administration.

The new 5.25 billion-gallon figure from the API-led coalition is in line with a number recommended to the EPA by Clean Fuels Alliance America – a U.S. biodiesel trade group – along with farm and feedstock groups.

In a mid-March letter to EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, that coalition said EPA’s previous mandates failed to support the growth of the advanced biofuel industry and undercut the market.

The EPA set biomass-based diesel mandates for the 2025 compliance year at 3.35 billion gallons.

Under the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, oil refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the nation’s fuel mix, or buy tradable credits from those that do.

 

Brazil protesters lift blockade of Amazon grain shipping route

Brazilian indigenous protesters have lifted a blockade of the Trans-Amazonian Highway, reopening a critical grain shipping route linking farmers to the Miritituba river port, traders association Abiove and a toll road operator said on Tuesday.

Munduruku indigenous activists intermittently shut down the road, also known as the BR-230, beginning on March 25 to put pressure on Brazil’s Supreme Court to overturn a 2023 law limiting indigenous land rights.

Grain traders said the protests were preventing the shipment of around 70,000 metric tons of grains, worth almost $30 million, every day.

Abiove said it learned Tuesday morning that the indigenous leaders had secured a meeting with Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes and had ended the blockade.

Via Brasil BR-163, the company that administers 1,009 kilometers (627 miles) of the highway linking farms in Mato Grosso state to the river port, also confirmed the end of the protest.

Mendes’ office said a meeting was scheduled for April 15.

Some 15 million tons of soy and corn were loaded onto barges at Miritituba last year bound for larger shipping ports down river. That corresponds to over 10% of Brazil’s total export volumes for those grains.

Shipments via the river port are forecast to rise around 20% this year as Brazilian farmers, who are expected to benefit from an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, market a record soybean crop and bumper corn harvest.

Even before the protests were launched, access to Miritituba had been plagued by the poor condition of the BR-230.

Bottlenecks along an unpaved five-kilometer stretch of the road close to the port town were blocking some trucks coming from farms for as long as three days, ANATC, a lobby group representing freight companies, said on Tuesday.

Via Brasil BR-163 said a new access will be built when courts grant it permission to expropriate land for new road construction.

 

China grants prelim approval for 97 GM corn, 2 soybean varieties

China’s agriculture ministry said on Tuesday that 97 genetically-modified corn and 2 soybean varieties have passed a preliminary review to obtain seed variety certification, the last regulatory step before commercial cultivation.

In China, genetically-modified crops need a biosafety certificate and seed variety approval before commercial cultivation.

 

 

 

 

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