Global Ag News for Apr 8.24

TOP HEADLINES

US Beef Production Up 4.2% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production rises to 514m pounds for the week ending April 6 from 493m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter up 3.9% from a week ago to 609m head
• Pork production up 0.7% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.7%
• For the year, beef production is 3.7% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.1% above

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, up 3 3/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1 1/2; Soybeans down 1 1/2; Soymeal up $2.50; Soyoil down 0.92.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices up 6 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 12 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 1; Soymeal up $2.40; Soyoil down 0.12.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3 1/4 in SRW, up 3/4 in HRW, up 3 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 9 1/4; Soybeans down 8; Soymeal down $2.10; Soyoil up 0.02.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 10.4% in SRW, down 9.2% in HRW, down 10.6% in HRS; Corn is down 8.2%; Soybeans down 8.4%; Soymeal down 13.0%; Soyoil up 0.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 8 yuan; Soymeal up 36; Soyoil down 60; Palm oil down 132; Corn down 22 — Malaysian Palm is down 50. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 50 ringgit (-1.15%) at 4293.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 5 were: SRW Wheat down 8,504 contracts, HRW Wheat down 8,094, Corn down 13,641, Soybeans up 2,944, Soymeal down 4,668, Soyoil up 2,110.

Brazil: Sufficient rain is expected in southwestern Brazil’s driest areas of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul as well as Paraguay to improve crop and field conditions after weeks of moisture stress for some Safrinha corn production areas. A full restoration to normal soil moisture is not expected, but the rain should help buy some time for crops in the region to improve prior to the start of the dry season. Mato Grosso, Goias, Tocantins and Maranhao, Brazil will continue to receive significant rain during the next ten days to maintain a favorable Safrinha corn and cotton outlook that has already been improving with recent rain.

Argentina: Central and southwestern Argentina trend wetter late this week and through the weekend to early next week benefiting late season summer crops while slowing the harvest of early season crops

Canadian Prairies: Canada’s Prairies are unlikely to see much significant precipitation during the coming week although some showers are likely. Topsoil conditions will be firming up during this period of time due to warmer than usual temperatures occurring at the same time. A change to more stormy weather may evolve next week mostly in the southeastern Prairies and possibly in a part of southwestern Alberta. Confidence is not high quite yet on the timing or the precipitation intensity.

Northern Plains: Northern U.S. Plains and upper Midwest precipitation this week will improve soil moisture in a few areas.  Follow up showers are likely Wednesday into Thursday with a more significant rain event possible near or slightly after mid-month.

Central/Southern Plains: Unlikely to experience much precipitation in the next ten days to two weeks raising the need for significant rain. West Texas rainfall Monday night into Wednesday will be welcome to both the Texas Panhandle and some counties in the key West Texas grain, oilseed and cotton production areas. The rain will bolster topsoil moisture only briefly and the drier unirrigated areas in the southwestern part of West Texas will not get much moisture of significance.

Midwest: U.S. eastern Midwest and southeastern states will also get rain and experience some delay to farming activity in the second half of this week. U.S. Midwest precipitation expected near and beyond mid-month, may delay spring planting for some areas and ensure moisture abundance in other areas.

Delta: U.S. Delta will experience heavy rainfall in waves later this week (Monday night through Wednesday) resulting in some flooding.  There is also a little risk to recently planted rice and corn in low-lying areas. Some crops might have to be replanted.  The wet weather will delay farming activity.

The player sheet for 4/5 had funds: net buyers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• RICE TENDER UPDATE: The international tender issued on Thursday by Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice seeks rapid arrival of the grain in Indonesia by May 31, European traders said. They expect a decision on the purchase by April 18.
• UKRAINIAN GRAIN EXPORTS: Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2023/24 July-June marketing season have fallen to around 36 million metric tons as of April 5 from 38.5 million a year earlier, agriculture ministry data showed.
• RUSSIAN GRAIN CARGOES: Two grain cargoes loaded by Russia’s RIF have received phyto-sanitary certificates from Russia authorities, a market source and a source close to the company said, easing delays in grain exports.
• INDIAN CROP EXPORTS: India has allowed limited exports of essential commodities, including sugar, wheat, rice, and onions, to the Maldives, the government said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

TODAY

Argentine Corn Production Estimate April 5: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• 2023-24 corn production est. lowered by 2m tons
• Corn harvest 11.1% complete

Brazil Farmers Harvest 79.33% Of 2023/2024 Soybean Area Versus 81.88% At This Time Last Year – Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 79.33% OF 2023/2024 SOYBEAN AREA VERSUS 81.88% AT THIS TIME LAST YEAR – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Brazil exports a record volume in the first quarter of 2024

Brazilian soybean shipments moved at a good pace in the first quarter of this year, a result of term contracts closed in 2023. Players expect exports to continue intense in the coming weeks, based on the dollar valuation against Real, which tends to boost Brazilian trades.

Data from Secex indicate that soybean exports totaled 22.09 million tons in the first quarter, a record for the period and 15.7% up in relation to that observed in the same period of 2023. In March alone, Brazil shipped 12.6 million tons, for an increase of 91% compared to February/24, but downing 4.6% in relation to March/23.

Although the volume increased, the average price received for international sales was BRL 136.30/60-kilo bag in the first quarter of 2024, the lowest for the period since 2019, in real terms (values were deflated by the IGP-DI March/24).

In the spot market in Brazil, in turn, consumers have been limiting trades, focused on the higher supply in Argentina and on the possible need of Brazilian producers to open room at warehouses. In spite of that, sellers are unwilling to close trades involving large amounts, due to the lower productivity in Brazil and to high costs of the current season.

As a result, values are practically stable. From March 27 to April 4, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) rose 0.4%, closing at BRL 124.28 per 60-kg bag on April 4. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 0.3%, to close at BRL 120.54 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices upped 0.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.3% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

BYPRODUCTS – The value of soy oil increased 0.8% between March 27 and April 4, at 5,233.08 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on April 4. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices moved up only 0.2% in the last seven days.

HARVEST – Conab indicates that 71% of the national area had been harvested up to March 31, against 74.5% one year ago.

CORN/CEPEA: Due to low liquidity, prices drop

Low liquidity prevails in the domestic market of corn. Consumers expect more attractive deals in the coming weeks; therefore, they have been postponing acquisitions of large amounts. These players are based on the summer crop supply, on the favorable weather to the second crop and on the possible need to open room at warehouses.

As a result, corn prices are moving down in many regions surveyed by Cepea in Brazil, especially in the Central-West. From March 28 to April 4, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) decreased 0.5%, closing at BRL 61.42 per 60-kilo bag on April 4. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn values dropped 0.1% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) and in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) over the last seven days.

PORTS – Trades to export are moving at a slow pace at ports in Brazil, since players are focused on the development of the second corn crop. Between March 28 and April 4, corn quotations upped 1.3% at Paranaguá port (PR), to close at BRL 60.13 per 60-kilo bag. In March, Brazil shipped 431 thousand tons, against 1.33 million tons in the same month of 2023, according to Secex.

CROPS – Data from Conab indicate that, up to March 31, 98.7% of the area in Brazil had been planted, advancing 1.9 and 2.4 percentage points in one week and in one year, respectively. Concerning the summer crop, the harvest had totaled 46.4% of the area, upping 3.6 and 1.2 p.p., respectively – data from Conab.

Argentina grains exchange trims corn forecast on stunt disease

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange on Friday trimmed its forecast for the 2023/24 season’s corn crop to 52 million metric tons, citing damage from the Spiroplasma bacteria and saying it could not rule out further cuts.

The exchange has seen an increase in the presence of maize leafhoppers, an insect that carries the harmful bacteria that cause stunt disease. Corn stunt disease hinders growth and can result in ears of corn with loose or missing kernels.

Argentina had previously expected a harvest of 54 million tons, down from an initial forecast of 56.5 million tons. Argentina is the world’s third largest corn exporter.

The exchange said the crop’s “normal to excellent” condition had dropped by eight percentage points due to the disease, with outbreaks concentrated in northern areas of Argentina’s agricultural heartland.

“New adjustments are not ruled out given that the real impact of the damage is still being evaluated,” it said.

Argentine corn farmers have reaped some 11.1% of the fields they planted. Regarding the current soybean season, the exchange said recent rainfall has hampered harvesting, with just 1.9% of fields harvested. Production is estimated at 52.5 million tons. In northeastern parts of the country, however, the exchange said crops were suffering from high temperatures and a lack of rain. If the current forecasts hold true, this season would be the first in seven years to see Argentina’s soybean production surpass its corn harvest, after 53.5 million tons of soy to 42 million tons of corn were produced in 2016/17.

 

 

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