Global Ag News for Apr 7.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Amazon shipping route for Brazilian soy disrupted by protests, poor roads

Indigenous protests and poor roads have disrupted shipping of Brazil’s bumper soybean crop this week via the river port of Miritituba in the Amazon rainforest, where global grains traders including Cargill and Bunge BG.N have important operations.

Demand for soy from Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, has surged in No. 1 consumer China as traders brace for a trade war discouraging Chinese imports of U.S. soybeans.

Miritituba loaded some 15 million tons of soy and corn last year onto barges bound for larger shipping ports down river, representing more than a tenth of Brazil’s total exports of those grains. Volumes at the port are expected to rise around 20% this year.

Protesters from the Munduruku people have been blocking a key stretch of the Transamazonian Highway near Miritituba at certain hours of the day to pressure Brazil’s Supreme Court to overturn a 2023 law aimed at limiting their land rights.

That has worsened backups along an unpaved five-kilometer stretch of the road. Trucking group ANATC said the traffic has left some cargos waiting three days to unload at Miritituba.

AMPORT, which represents the largest firms shipping from the terminal, said truckers with pre-scheduled access have not suffered those wait times at the port.

Still, AMPORT President Flavio Acatauassu estimated each hour of the protesters’ blockade prevents at least 12,000 tons of soybeans from arriving at the terminal.

Via Brasil BR-163, which administers 1,009 kilometers (627 miles) of the highway linking farms in Mato Grosso state to the river port, said a new access will be built when courts give it permission to expropriate certain areas.

Frustrations have boiled over into violent episodes between truckers and Indigenous protesters, according to a statement from Munduruku representatives.

“Our fight is peaceful, but we have been suffering attacks and threats from truck drivers, including insults, stone throwing, gun shots and dangerous driving,” they wrote.

Rafael Modesto, a lawyer for the Indigenous Missionary Council, which argues for Indigenous interests before the Supreme Court, said the protest reflects fears among native peoples about losing their lands to an advancing farm frontier.

Brazil’s powerful congressional farm lobby has been at odds with the Supreme Court over a proposed cut-off date for new reservations on lands where Indigenous people were not living in 1988.

“We believe that, if any proposal that changes the text of the Constitution goes through, demonstrations like this one may become more frequent all over Brazil,” he said.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/2 in HRW, down 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 1.20.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 8 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 41 3/4; Soymeal down $8.00; Soyoil down 0.26.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 3/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1/4; Soybeans down 41 3/4; Soymeal down $8.00; Soyoil down 0.25.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 4.2% in SRW, down 0.0% in HRW, down 1.9% in HRS; Corn is down 0.2%; Soybeans down 2.5%; Soymeal down 7.4%; Soyoil up 12.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 65 yuan; Soymeal up 74; Soyoil down 236; Palm oil down 438; Corn up 14 — Malaysian Palm is down 146.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 146 ringgit (-3.37%) at 4182.

 

There were changes in registrations (-301 Soybeans). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 459 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 4 were: SRW Wheat up 2,650 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,018, Corn down 10,702, Soybeans up 22,578, Soymeal up 9,876, Soyoil down 9,469.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 07 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Damaging flash flood events observed last week in the U.S. will locally delay early plantings in the South and parts of Midwest
• SOUTH AMERICA: Moderate rains expected across Central Brazil through mid-April might be not enough to aid existing soil moisture deficits in eastern Mato Grosso and Goiás
• EUROPE: Cold air spreads over eastern Europe with widespread frost events reaching the Balkans and Turkey
• BLACK SEA: Overnight frost events will last for the next 3-4 days and affect emerging wheat across southern Ukraine

 

Northern Plains: It was quiet over the weekend. Some isolated showers will pass through some areas Tuesday and Wednesday. And a system is likely to bring scattered showers this coming weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances going forward for an active pattern to help, but so far, it hasn’t.

 

Central/Southern Plains: A system finally left this weekend, but not after dumping a bunch of rain and some snow across southern areas. Much of the region received good precipitation from this long, drawn-out system last week except for western Kansas, which did not see much. Cold air has filtered in behind the system and frosts and freezes have been common, which continues on Monday. Wheat has not been particularly vulnerable, but some damage may have occurred. Dry conditions are forecast this week with rising temperatures, favorable for fieldwork, but not wheat development.

Midwest: Heavy rain over the last several days has led to widespread intense flooding across the southern end of the region. That will pause thoughts of fieldwork for a while while it takes a long time to drain fields and local rivers from flood stage. Some showers will move through mid-late this week, but should not be heavy for too many areas. Cold temperatures early this week will give way to much higher readings later this week and weekend. The pattern will change back to a more active one next week with seesawing temperatures and systems moving through bringing scattered showers. Southern areas will not particularly like to see more rainfall anytime soon, but areas in the north which have seen improvements in soil moisture and reductions in drought will find it more favorable prior to planting.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Incredibly heavy rainfall finally ended over the weekend. Some areas saw more than 10 inches of rain across the northern half of the region, which will take a long time to drain from fields and for local rivers to fall below flood stage. Some showers will move through northern areas mid-late this week, but a more active weather pattern next week could continue flooding potential. Fieldwork will be put on hold while floodwaters recede, which may take quite a long time. And some replanting will have to be done.

Brazil: A front continued through central and northern areas over the weekend, but did not produce much precipitation. A front coming up from Argentina will produce more rain, but probably mostly light and scattered instead of the heavy and widespread rain that the region needs. We continue to forecast below-normal rainfall through the end of the month, with much of the rain being dependent upon fronts moving through from Argentina, typical for this time of year. That below-normal forecast is not favorable for corn, where many areas still have below-normal soil moisture heading into the primary pollination period.

Argentina: Frosts were noted across the south last Friday and Saturday, which may have caused some damage to a small portion of the crop there. A system developed over northern areas on Sunday, which continues there with showers for Monday as well. Another front will move through Friday and Saturday, but with more spotty showers. Both corn and soybeans continue to mature across the country and the drier forecast is more favorable for fieldwork. Passing fronts at times could cause some occasional delays, however.

Europe: Eastern areas saw some showers over the weekend, which continues early this week. The front responsible also brought through some much colder air, causing areas of northeastern frost for a couple of days. An additional front may move through later this week with isolated showers and some light snow and another may do something similar for the weekend, but much of the continent will be drier this week. Areas in the northwest have been very dry the last couple of months and need some rain. The pattern may become much more active starting this weekend as systems rapidly move through the continent next week with widespread rainfall. That is much more favorable for wheat, but may cause some delays to early spring planting.

Black Sea: A shot of cold air moved into the region over the weekend and will continue to be in place most of the week. Northern areas are seeing frosts. While wheat is not very vulnerable to the cold temperatures, it will not be good for crop development. Scattered showers have been moving through recently and continue in waves this week with a few more fronts dropping through. While improvements to soil moisture should be noted, drought still extends through much of the region for early wheat development.

 

The player sheet for 4/4 had funds: net sellers of 2,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, sellers of 12,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

 

TENDER

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat sourced from optional origins

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 metric tons of durum wheat sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

Brazil March Agriculture, Mining Exports by Volume: MDIC

Following is a summary of key Brazilian agriculture and mining exports by volume, from the Brazilian Trade Ministry.

• Corn exports rose 104% in March from a year ago
• Beef exports rose 30% y/y
• Soybean exports rose 17% y/y

 

China Hits Back at Trump With Tariffs, Limits on Key Exports

China retaliated against Donald Trump’s latest tariffs with commensurate levies on all American goods and export controls on rare earths, dealing a fresh blow to global markets and prompting the US president to quickly deride Beijing’s reaction as the “wrong” move.

President Xi Jinping’s government will impose a 34% tariff on all imports from the US starting April 10, matching the level of Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on Chinese products. Authorities in Beijing also announced other measures including:

• Immediately restrict exports of seven types of rare earths
• Launch anti-dumping probe into medical CT X-ray tubes from the US and India
• Halt imports of poultry products from two American companies
• Add 11 American defense companies to an unreliable entity list
• Impose export controls on 16 US firms
• Halt imports of sorghum from a US company
• Investigate DuPont China for suspected antitrust violations

China’s measures, announced simultaneously by multiple ministries on Friday evening during a public holiday, followed Trump’s move to boost tariffs on global trade partners, introducing the steepest American duties in a century. The latest US tariffs will raise levies on nearly all Chinese products to at least 54%, potentially crippling Chinese exports to the US.

 

Argentine conglomerate Vicentin shuts down activity at soybean crushing plants

Argentine conglomerate Vicentin shut down activity at its soybean crushing plants due to lack of contracts amid its bankruptcy proceedings, the company said Saturday in a statement.

Vicentin, in bankruptcy proceedings since 2020, added that it aims to reverse the halt once the uncertainty of the judicial process is resolved.

Argentina is the world’s largest supplier of soybean oil and meal and Vicentin was one of the main shipping players in the market until it started facing financial issues.

Vicentin has also struggled to pay its workers recently. Last month, Argentine oilseed workers lifted a strike and returned to work at soybean processing plants belonging to Vicentin after the firm scheduled payments for overdue wages.

The statement issued by the conglomerate did not specify whether the plants’ stoppage would entail layoffs.

Oilseed workers union SOEA and Vicentin didn’t immediately respond to requests for comments from Reuters.

 

Brazil farmers harvest 85.83% of 2024/2025 soybean crop, says Patria Agronegocios

BRAZIL FARMERS HARVEST 85.83% OF 2024/2025 SOYBEAN CROP VERSUS 79.36% AT THIS TIME LAST SEASON – PATRIA AGRONEGOCIOS

 

CORN/CEPEA: Demand is low, and prices drop in many regions

After hitting BRL 90.00 per 60-kg bag in mid-March, corn prices have started to decrease between late March and early April, a trend that has been verified in most areas surveyed by Cepea.

Price drops are related to the low demand. Consumers have inventories and are focused on the first crop harvesting; therefore, they are away from closing trades, expecting more price decreases. Sellers, in turn, are willing to trade in the spot market, fearing quotations can drop even more. Other part of sellers, however, are still limiting the supply.

The rainfall in some producing areas has increased expectations for the development and the production of the second crop. Moreover, logistic issues reduced because of the higher number of trucks available.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 3.5% between March 27 and April 3, closing at BRL 84.82 per 60-kilo bag on April 3.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from March 27 to April 3, corn values downed 2.9% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 1.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

CROPS – According to data from Conab, the summer crop harvesting had totaled 53.3% of the area in Brazil up to March 29, more than the average over the last five years (2020-2024), of 41.1%. As for the second crop, Conab indicates that sowing activities reached 97.9% of the total until March 29.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Tariffs and retaliations may reinforce pressure on international values

Soy future contracts traded at CME Group registered slight decreases over the last weeks, due to the progress of the harvesting in Brazil (most important producer and exporter of the product in the world) and to high inventories in the United States.

However, the downward trend may be reinforced in the coming days, due to tariffs imposed the US government this week and to consequent retaliations – on April 4, China announced a tariff of 34% on products from the United States.

The USDA released a report this week indicating that inventories in the United States were at 51.99 million tons up to March 1st, higher than market expectations. On the other hand, the USDA says that the area that will be planted with soy in the US may drop 3% compared to the previous season, at 33.79 million tons in the 2025/26 crop.

In this scenario, prices also moved down in Brazil, but drops were limited by the increase of export premiums, which were influenced by the firm demand from abroad.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 1% from March 27 to April 3, to close at BRL 131.77 per 60-kg bag on April 3. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved down 0.5% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 126.98 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 1.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.6% in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison. The US dollar dropped 2.3% against Real between March 27 and April 3, at BRL 5.626 on April 3.

 

U.S. soybean sales weakened, Brazil soy exports started slow

U.S. soybean exports have dipped for the second consecutive month to 4.93 million tons in January, down 12% from last year’s same period. Meanwhile, weekly export sales dropped from over 2.0 million tons per week during October-December to the 5-year lows in the last three weeks. Export sales to China dropped significantly. Total outstanding sales were at 8.88 million tons, compared to last year’s 9.50 million tons. Less demand from China and bumper harvest in Brazil indicate strong U.S. soybean demand won’t continue. We expect U.S. soybean sales and exports in the coming months will be near or slightly below last year’s low levels. Total exports during 2024/25 were projected at 48.8 million tons, below USDA’s February projection of 49. 7 million tons.

Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean exports closed at 97.4 million tons, compared to 103.88 million tons for 2022/23. The new crop soybeans came to the market this February. The latest vessel line-up data (released on 08 February) show that 1.19 million tons of soybeans have been shipped, slower than normal due to the harvest delays. On the other hand, an additional 9.9 million tons of soybeans were scheduled to be delivered for the remaining month, indicating firm demand. China remains the dominant buyer of Brazilian soybeans. Barring an U.S.-China agricultural deal similar as the one signed in January 2020, Brazil soybean exports for 2024/25 running from February 2025 to January 2026 could reach 110.2 million tons.

Argentina has largely increased its soybean products (meal and oil) exports in 2023/24, following the back-to-normal soybean production in the country last year.  The exports of raw material soybeans have maintained at relatively low levels. LSEG agriculture research projected 4.6 million tons of soybean exports for 2023/24 running from April 2024 to March 2025. Although the adverse weather has negatively affected Argentina crop production this year, higher sown area has maintained Argentine soybean production slightly above last year. We forecast Argentina soybean product exports will remain strong in the coming season and soybean exports will also increase slightly to 5.5 million tons.

In China, LSEG trade flows show that soybean imports from the U.S. (including imports projected for February and March) decrease slightly from the previous season, confirming China’s weak demand for the U.S. new crop soybeans. Meanwhile, low hog prices and slow economic growth, as well as high inventory, could also curb China’s soybean demand for imports in 2025.

 

China to Boost Grain Production Capacity to 1.4t Catty by 2027

China aims to strengthen its agricultural sector so its grain production capacity will reach 1.4 trillion catty by 2027, Xinhua News Agency reports, citing a State Council plan to develop the country’s sector through 2035.

• To maintain a reasonable self-sufficient level for important agricultural products by 2027
• To be self-reliant in agricultural tech and see “obvious” international competitive advantage in the sector by 2035
• To boost farmers’ income and accelerate improving a mechanism about wages protection

 

China Suspends Chicken, Sorghum Imports From Some US Firms

China has suspended chicken products imports from two American producers, part of retaliatory measures against the US after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on the Asian nation.

China is halting poultry imports from Mountaire Farms of Delaware Inc. and Coastal Processing LLC, to safeguard consumers’ health after detecting banned drugs in US chicken products many times, according to a statement on the website of General Administration of Customs.

The customs administration has also moved to suspend the qualification of C&D (USA) Inc. for supplying sorghum to China, citing quarantine reasons, according to a separate statement posed on its website.

Shipments of meal made from poultry meat and bones, used as animal feed, from three US suppliers — American Proteins Inc., Mountaire Farms, and Darling Ingredients Inc. are also suspended.

Darling, which uses materials like waste fats and oils to make ingredients for the biofuel, food and animal feed industries, fell as much as 11% in intraday trading Friday, the most in more than two years.

China is imposing 34% levies on all American imports starting April 10, delivering on a promise to strike back after Trump imposed duties amid an escalating a trade fight.

 

 

 

 

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