Global Ag News for Apr 4.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global Grain Trade Seen at Five-Year Low as China Buys Less: FAO

World grain trade in the 2024-25 season is now seen at 478.9m tons, according to a report from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

• That’s down 5.3m tons from the prior month’s forecast and would be the lowest level since 2019-20
  • Smaller-than-expected purchases by China are weighing on corn, sorghum and wheat exports
• Global grain stockpiles seen reaching 873.3m tons, up 4m tons from the prior outlook
  • That would still be 1.5% lower y/y
• Grain production for the season is also raised due to better wheat crops in Australia and Kazakhstan

FOR 2025:

• World wheat production outlook little changed at 795m tons
• That would be about steady y/y

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, down 2 3/4 in HRW, down 2 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil down 0.81.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 4 1/2 in SRW, up 13 3/4 in HRW, up 7 in HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans down 15 1/4; Soymeal down $4.20; Soyoil up 1.14.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.4% in SRW, up 1.1% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 0.1%; Soybeans up 1.0%; Soymeal down 5.9%; Soyoil up 16.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 22 yuan; Soymeal up 36; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 26; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 160.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 160 ringgit (-3.56%) at 4329.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 3 were: SRW Wheat down 491 contracts, HRW Wheat down 2,376, Corn down 1,011, Soybeans up 7,555, Soymeal up 11,288, Soyoil down 944.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 03 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Dry conditions remain anticipated across much of the U.S. during the 6-15 day forecast, which should bode well for parts of the southern Midwest through the Mississippi River Delta region which have received (and will continue to receive) very heavy rainfall in recent/coming days
• SOUTH AMERICA: Very dry conditions down to 50 mm below normal are expected across the Argentina Pampas during the next 10 days
• BLACK SEA: Near or above normal precipitation is expected across most of the Black Sea region through the next 10 days
• SOUTHEAST ASIA: High precipitation between 20-65 mm above normal is expected across most palm producing regions of Indonesia and Malaysia during the next 10 days

 

ISOLATED WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTINA REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn harvesting
• Isolated wet spells in Central Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Recent moderate precipitation in the region has been beneficial for moistening soils in a lot of areas that needed it over the last week, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, overall dryness that is forecast through next week won’t be helpful for soils.

Central/Southern Plains: A system brought scattered showers over the last couple of days, but mainly to eastern areas. The front to that system will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for getting showers into southwestern areas, though not all areas will be hit with meaningful precipitation and it may include some snow. A couple of colder days that follow will bring frosty conditions to the southwestern Plains wheat areas and will not be favorable, either. Drought in Nebraska has been seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

Midwest: A system that moved through on Wednesday brought widespread precipitation and severe weather, as well as heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. And then another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather, especially across the south. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet to do fieldwork and will take a long time to drain out. Though mostly drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, temperatures will be falling below normal, making that a slower prospect.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front that moved in on Wednesday brought severe weather and heavy rain. The front will get stuck across the area for the rest of the week and heavy rain and some severe weather continue before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Some areas that planted early may need to replant. Drier conditions are forecast for next week but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

 

The player sheet for 4/3 had funds: net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 6,500 soybeans, buyers of 5,000 soymeal, and sellers of 9,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association in South Korea is believed to have purchased about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Thursday without issuing an international tender, European traders said. The corn can be sourced from any worldwide origins.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending March 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 286k tons
• Top buyer of corn: South Korea with 339k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Taiwan with 101k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following table shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending March 27, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 30.6k tons of the 53k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Frost in Argentina could harm corn harvest  

Early frosts expected in the coming days could affect Argentina’s 2024/25 corn harvest, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BdeC) said in its weekly crop report on Thursday.

Argentina, the world’s third-largest corn exporter, has harvested 20.3% of the area planted with the grain and production is estimated at 39 million metric tons.

“Frost forecasts for the coming days could have a negative impact on expected yields. The areas most likely to be impacted are the center, west, and south of the province of Buenos Aires and the province of La Pampa,” the BdeC said.

Autumn began in late March in Argentina.

Regarding the 2024/25 soybean crop, the exchange reported that rain in recent days delayed the start of the oilseed harvest, which is expected to reach 48.6 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, the BdeC raised its 2024/25 sunflower production estimate by 200,000 metric tons to 4.5 million tons. Sunflower harvesting is 75.6% complete.

 

Rains in Argentina Delay Soybean Harvesting: Grain Exchange

Rains have delayed the start of the soybean harvest as fields are too wet for tractors, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in a weekly report.

• In central Santa Fe, on the key Pampas growing belt, farmers who have collected soy are reporting better-than-expected yields
• Soy production forecast kept at 48.6m metric tons
• Corn harvesting also slowed down because of the rains

 

USDA attaché sees Brazil 2025/26 corn production at 130 million T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brasilia:

“Brazil’s corn planted area and production for MY (marketing year) 2025/26 are expected to increase. Low stocks and strong demand led corn prices to high levels in the domestic market, growing producers’ sowing outlooks. Corn exports are projected to increase in MY 2024/25 and remain stable in MY 2025/26, given the robust demand for corn internally. For the 2024/25 harvest, rice production is anticipated to be robust, encouraging high exports and supporting the 2025/26 planting. Wheat production in 2025/26 is forecast to reach its second-highest mark in history, following expectations of increased yields through higher crop investments. As a result, imports are forecast to decline based on less internal demand. Meanwhile, the 2024/25 wheat harvest is expected to decrease due to adverse weather affecting yields. … Post forecasts corn production for MY 2025/26 at 130 million metric tons (mmt), a 3.2% increase over the production estimate for MY 2024/25 (March 2025–February 2026), set at 126 mmt.”

 

USDA attaché expects increased China corn, wheat production in 2025/26

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Beijing:

“Post forecasts MY (marketing year) 25/26 China corn production at 300 MMT (million metric tons), up 1.7% from MY 24/25, while corn imports are forecast at 8 MMT, lower than MY 23/24 levels due to China’s focus on grain self-sufficiency. Wheat and rice production are expected to increase slightly on improved yields and stable planted area, while sorghum and barley imports are projected to decline based on a number of market and non-market factors. Industry analysts have shared that larger-scale stock rotations happen every three to five years and 2025 is scheduled to be a stock rotation year for some grains and oilseeds in China’s national reserves. Beijing announced retaliatory tariffs on March 4, 2025, on 740 U.S. agricultural product tariff line items, including 15% on wheat and corn and 10% on sorghum.

 

Ukraine Grain Exports So Far This Season Down 8.4% From Year Ago

Ukraine’s total grain exports for the season that started in July 1 reached 33m tons, down 8.4% from the same period last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• The season’s exports so far include:
  • 13.2m tons of wheat, almost 7% down y/y
  • 2.2m tons of barley, up 12% y/y
  • 17m tons of corn, down almost 13% y/y
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers continue sowing campaign, planting already 926,000 hectares with spring grains and legumes
  • That’s up 8.7% from last year, according to Ministry’s data
  • Spring wheat is planted on the area of 116,500 hectares, which is almost the same, compared with last year
  • Total area for 2025 spring planting is to reach 5.7 million hectares, which is the same, compared with 2024: Ministry

 

Global Food Prices Were Little Changed in March, UN’s FAO Says

Global food prices were little changed in March, as higher vegetable oil costs were offset by declines in grains and sugar, according to an index of food-commodity prices from the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

• A gauge of vegetable oil prices rose 3.7% from a month earlier amid strong import demand
• Grains prices fell 2.6%
  • Concerns over crop conditions in some major wheat growers eased
  • Rice prices were pressured by weak import demand and ample supplies for export

 

Brazil close to accessing Chinese market for corn-based DDG, minister says

Brazil is close to reaching an agreement with Chinese authorities enabling the sale of Brazilian corn-based distiller’s dried grains (DDG), which is used as animal feed, Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Thursday.

“We are about to open the Chinese market to our DDG in the next few days,” Favaro told an ethanol industry event.

 

Argentina raises biofuel prices for domestic market

Argentina’s government raised the price of biofuels for the domestic market, two decrees published in the official gazette showed on Thursday.

The economy ministry set the minimum purchase price for biodiesel at 1,192,226 pesos ($1,111.37) per metric ton, up from a previous 1,151,909 pesos.

Sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol prices, meanwhile, were raised to 772.726 pesos and 708.230 pesos per liter, respectively, from 746.595 pesos and 684.280 pesos.

The new prices take effect from the date of their publication in the official gazette and will be in place until a new price is published, the government said.

Argentina, which is battling high inflation, is a major producer of biofuels, particularly biodiesel. It regularly raises prices for the domestic market.

 

US Farmers Need Imports, Set to Absorb Higher Costs on Tariffs

The US demands imports to meet fertilizer needs, and tariffs added on April 2 could add 3% in farmer operating expenses. Nearly one-third of the US phosphate trade is sourced from imports, with half coming from from Saudi Arabia, and we estimate phosphate, prices could rise 12% to absorb new tariffs. The urea market is about 30% sourced from imports, and Russia — not subject to a tariff — is the US’ largest supplier, which supports only a 5% expected increase in US urea prices. With over 90% of US potash imported from Canada, and not subject to an import tax, we believe US prices should rise by only 1%. Adding new US fertilizer capacity would take 3-5 years.

A tariff is paid by the importing entity to US Customs and Border Protection. CF Industries, LSB and Mosaic are the largest publicly traded US producers.

 

Forecasters predict above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University forecasters said on Thursday the upcoming 2025 hurricane season across the Atlantic basin will be above average, with 17 named tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, of which four are predicted to be major.

Warm sea surface temperatures will again fuel the storms in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the researchers of the closely watched forecast said in a statement. During the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, winds across the southern United States will be favorable to storm formation.

The scientists predicted activity to be about 125% above the average for tropical storms between 1991 and 2020. The 2024 hurricane season saw tropical storm activity at 130% above the average for those years.

There have been an average of 3.2 major hurricanes, with sustained winds over 111 miles per hour (179 kph), 7.2 hurricanes out of 14.4 named tropical storms between 1991 and 2020.

AccuWeather issued its 2025 hurricane season forecast in late March. The private weather service calls for between three and five major hurricanes out of seven to 10 hurricanes from 13-18 named tropical storms.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues its hurricane outlook in May.

The 2024 hurricane season was one of the costliest on record. There were five major hurricanes, out of a total of 11 hurricanes from 18 named storms.

The deaths of 427 people were attributed to 2024’s storms and losses totaled $130 billion.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 686k tons in the week ending March 29 from 670k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn little changed from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 10.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $17.08 per short ton, a decline of $0.96 from the previous week

 

 

 

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