Global Ag News for Apr 3.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Grains Decline After US Announces Sweeping Tariff Measures

Corn, wheat and soybean futures in Chicago fell after US President Donald Trump announced so-called reciprocal tariffs on trading partners worldwide, raising concerns about demand for American crops.

The nation imposed at least a 10% tariff on all exporters to the US, with even higher duties on about 60 nations. That included China, a key market for soybeans. The Asian country has already imposed tariffs on US farm products, and there is a risk that the trade war could escalate.

If there is retaliation, the US may struggle to move their products to Asia, said Ole Houe, chief executive officer at Sydney-based Ikon Commodities. The US exports 25% to 60% of its grains and oilseeds to Asia, he added.

Trump exempted goods covered under the USMCA North American trade agreement. That could help maintain crop flows with key US trading partners Mexico and Canada.

Most-active soybean futures fell as much as 2.1% on the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn dropped 2.2%, while wheat declined as much as 2.6%. In Kuala Lumpur, palm oil slipped as much 1.6%, tracking losses in rival US soybean oil that slumped 3.4%.

“Palm oil and biofuel exports to the US will become unviable,” said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, head of trading and hedging strategies at Kaleesuwari Intercontinental.

Higher US tariffs may curb trade flows from Asia to the US, which imports textile products from several countries in the region, including China, Vietnam and India. US cotton futures plunged 4.4%.

A shift in demand may benefit agricultural markets in nations like Australia, said Dennis Voznesenski, analyst with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

China has already been buying more wheat from Australia, and soybeans from Brazil, its top supplier of the oilseed.

Ignacio Espinola, a senior analyst with brokerage firm Hedgepoint Global Markets, said that the markets are having doubts on the continuation of the downtrend. But it’s too early to predict, he added.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 6 3/4 in SRW, down 7 3/4 in HRW, down 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/2; Soybeans down 18; Soymeal down $3.00; Soyoil down 0.98.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 3 1/2 in SRW, up 9 in HRW, up 6 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1; Soybeans down 11 3/4; Soymeal down $9.30; Soyoil up 2.36.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 3.6% in SRW, up 0.3% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 1.4%; Soybeans up 1.3%; Soymeal down 7.6%; Soyoil up 19.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 22 yuan; Soymeal up 23; Soyoil down 42; Palm oil down 26; Corn up 13 — Malaysian Palm is down 27.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 27 ringgit (-0.60%) at 4490.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 2 were: SRW Wheat up 164 contracts, HRW Wheat down 4,491, Corn up 8,086, Soybeans up 8,743, Soymeal up 11,133, Soyoil up 10,875.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 02 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Sweeping cold weather will move west to east across North America during the next 10 days, with more widespread warmth expected thereafter
• SOUTH AMERICA: Northeast Brazil will remain relatively dry during the next 10 days, while areas further south are expected to receive near or above normal totals during this time
• AUSTRALIA: Far northeast Australia will experience high precipitation during the next 10 days, while the Southeast receives little to none
• SOUTH ASIA: Parts of Southern India are expected to receive a sharp uptick in precipitation over the next week

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTINA REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in Central/North Brazil

 

Northern Plains: A mix of rain and snow continues to fall across the region Wednesday, including areas of heavy snow across the eastern Dakotas. When combined with the past weekend’s system, they are making for improving soil moisture across the south, but drought still covers large areas of the region and will not be wiped away so easily. Though some showers will move through on Friday, dryness that is forecast through next week won’t be helpful either.

Central/Southern Plains: A system is moving through Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather. The front will get stuck across the south on Thursday with continued showers before a larger storm system moves through Friday and Saturday. That could be more favorable for southwestern areas, getting some showers there. Drought in Nebraska is seeing some improvements lately and the southeast could see heavy, flooding rain. But if the weekend system disappoints, drought will continue to grow in the southwest as conditions will be much drier next week.

Midwest: A system moving through Wednesday is bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms, potential for severe weather, and heavy rain. The front to the system will get stuck across the south on Thursday where heavy rain is likely to continue. And then another system will move through Friday through the weekend with more heavy rain and potential severe weather. Though the heavy rain is helping to ease drought in the north, historic flooding potential in the south will cause it to be too wet in the south to do fieldwork. Though drier weather next week should help flood waters recede, temperatures will be falling below normal, making that a slower prospect.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front will move through on Wednesday with more heavy rain and a high risk of severe weather. The front will get stuck across the area for the rest of the week and heavy rain is in the forecast before another system sweeps through over the weekend with more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will likely lead to flooding and delays to fieldwork and planting. Drier conditions are forecast for next week but so are colder temperatures, which would slow down the retreat of floodwaters.

 

The player sheet for 4/2 had funds: net buyers of 500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, buyers of 4,500 soybeans, sellers of 4,500 soymeal, and buyers of 7,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN CAKE AND MEAL SALE: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 135,000 metric tons of U.S. soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/25 marketing year.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on March 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of four analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending March 27.

• Corn est. range 600k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,017k
• Soybean est. range 200k – 800k tons, with avg of 408k

 

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 2.7% to 26.612M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 27.227 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.063m b/d, compared to survey avg of 1.043m

 

USDA attaché sees Mexico soybean imports rising by 1% in 2025/26

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Mexico City:

“In the marketing year (MY) 2025/2026, Mexico is forecast to increase its oilseed crush due to rising demand for vegetable oil and animal feed. Population growth and increased livestock production are expected to boost the production of oil and meal, as well as drive imports of soybeans and their derivatives. Domestic oilseed production is expected to decline and remain low due to inadequate seed technology, financing, and support policies…. Mexico remains a net oilseed importer as domestic production accounts for only 8% of total consumption. Oilseed imports for MY 2025/2026 are forecast to remain stable at 7.7 million metric tons (MMT). Soybean imports are forecast 1% higher due to increased crush demand for soybean meal and oil, driven by competitive prices, population growth, and increased livestock production.”

 

USDA attaché sees India 2025/26 wheat crop at 115 million tons

The following are selected highlights from a report issued on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in New Delhi:

“India is on course to hit its third record wheat crop in MY (marketing year) 2025/2026 … on higher planting and optimal growing conditions. Consumption is likely to recover from last year’s drop, but export bans on wheat and wheat products are likely to continue due to inflation concerns. After consecutive record harvests over the last nine years, rice production in upcoming MY 2025/2026 is expected to steady at 143 MMT (million metric tons); exports are forecast up to 24 MMT (record) on sufficient supplies and competitive prices as the government liquidates excess rice stocks in the domestic market…. FAS New Delhi forecasts MY 2025/2026 (April/March) wheat production at a record 115 million metric (tons) from 32.6 million hectares assuming normal weather through harvest.”

 

Russia Distributes Remaining Wheat Export Quotas to 24 Cos.: IFX

Russia’s Agriculture Ministry issued an order to distribute remaining wheat export quota for 2025 among 24 companies, Interfax said Wednesday, citing the document.

• Following the final distribution, Grain Gates remained the top exporter with a quota of almost 2.4m tons, Aston received more than 990k tons and OZK Trading more than 490k tons: IFX
• NOTE: Total volume of 2025 wheat quota is 10.6m tons; in force between Feb. 15 and June 30; the bulk of it, about 8.6 million tons, was distributed in February and more in early March

 

Favorable harvest weather maintains Paraguay soybean production

2024/25 PARAGUAY SOYBEAN PRODUCTION: 9.7 [8.9-10.1] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

2024/25 Paraguay soybean production is unchanged from our previous estimate of 9.7 million metric tons (MMT) as favorable weather conditions continue to support the harvest throughout the core soybean croplands of the Southeastern Oriental region. Over the past two weeks, the Southeastern Oriental region had experienced moderate weather with warm temperatures, boding well for ongoing harvest operations. According to LSEG’s latest weather forecast, drier conditions are likely to dominate the region throughout the next ten-days, providing optimal conditions for ongoing harvest activities.

 

INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION UP ON HIGHER AREA AND YIELD AHEAD OF HARVEST

2025/26 INDIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 113.4 [106.3-116.9] MILLION TONS, UP 2% FROM LAST UPDATE

2025/26 India wheat production is raised from our previous estimate by 2% to 113.4 million tons due to an increase in our national area estimate, and higher yields amid recently updated satellite imagery. Yield projections were revised upwards in key-producing wheat regions, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. Our area estimate has increased in key-producing northern state, Uttar Pradesh as farmers have shifted away from oilseed cultivation this season. Over the past 30 days, temperatures and precipitation have been generally favorable, supporting crop development during the critical grain-formation period. According to LSEG’s Weather Research latest forecast, a warming trend will arrive in northern India into mid-April, which may facilitate harvest operations. However, we will continue to closely monitor crop conditions as rising temperatures during late grain-filling stages could pose risks to final yield outcomes.

 

Russian wheat production fractionally increased amid spring wheat plantings

2025/26 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 79.8 [78.2-83.8] MILLION TONS, UP 0.2% FROM LAST UPDATE

Ongoing spring wheat plantings slightly increase 2025/26 Russian wheat production to 79.8 [78.2-83.8] million tons (MMT), but drought risk remains. Our estimate consists of 54.4 MMT of winter wheat and 25.4 MMT of spring wheat and does not include the occupied Ukrainian Oblasts.

The past two weeks featured warm and relatively dry conditions across the continent. Rain surpluses (10-20 mm above normal) were noted in Central District, especially in Rostov, Voronezh, Lipetsk, Kaluga, and Bryansk Oblasts, improving soil moisture levels. Southern District remains dry, with soil moisture levels at a 6-year low. Moving forward, the latest weather forecasts indicate cooler temperatures over the next two weeks, especially in Central and Volga Districts, with precipitation surpluses across the continent. Overnight frosts might occur over the Central District, which could cause additional damage to already vulnerable crops in that region.

According to the extended weather forecast for April, warm and dry conditions should prevail across the continent except for the Central District. If verified spring wheat plantings should follow a normal pace, thus we placed spring wheat planted area at 12.87 million hectares. We maintain our current yield forecast. Should dry weather prevail, wheat yield could be reduced from our estimate. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather conditions in the upcoming weeks and update our forecast accordingly.

 

Brazil soy seed piracy generates $1.76 billion in losses per year, study finds

Soybean seed piracy in Brazil generates losses of 10 billion reais ($1.76 billion) per year in the country, according to a study by CropLife Brasil and agribusiness consultancy Celeres Consultoria released on Wednesday.

The findings of the study in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of soybeans, underscore the challenges faced by seed, chemical and biotechnology companies doing business here.

The country, which competes with the United States and Argentina in world markets, sells most of its soybeans for processing in China.

Pirated soybean seeds occupy 11% of the area sowed with soybeans in Brazil, the study found after looking at planting data for the 2023/24 season. At that point, the total area planted with soy was 46.15 million hectares (114.039 million acres), data from national crop agency Conab shows.

The nation’s soy area in the 2024/2025 season is 47.45 million hectares.

Approximately 1 billion reais could be lost in taxes over the next 10 years due to seed piracy, the survey estimates. Also, combating seed piracy could contribute to increasing investments to improve seed varieties by 900 million reais over the next decade, according to the study.

Croplife represents seeds companies, biotechnology firms and pesticides and bioinput producers.

 

Palm prices track external market gains, but output recovery ahead may cap further surges

2024/25 PALM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK UPDATE – APRIL 2025

• Lebaran holiday and adverse weather reduce the 2024/25 Indonesia palm oil production estimate to 48.8 million metric tonnes (mt), <1% from the last update.
• 2024/25 Malaysia palm oil production is fractionally lowered to 18.9 million mt, down 1% from the last update, due to unfavourable harvesting weather and festivities.
• 2024/25 world palm oil imports are estimated at 42.8 million mt, down 2.9% from the last month’s update and down 0.5% from the 2023/24 season.
• The palm oil market continues to show resilience despite a noticeable decline in demand from traditional markets. The sustained prices can largely be attributed to low inventory levels in key producing countries, which provide a buffer against the drop in demand. Also, several factors have kept palm oil prices elevated, including Indonesia’s proposed increase in palm oil export levies, festivities, and adverse weather conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia.
• While palm oil prices have remained firm, the potential for significant price increases ahead appears limited, mainly due to the expected recovery in production following Eid al-Fitr and competition from soybean oil. These, coupled with persistently weak palm oil exports, could lead to a gradual accumulation of palm oil inventories, which may put downward pressure on prices.
• In the broader agricultural market, shifts in trade caused by the ongoing trade war and reciprocal tariffs are beginning to reshape global trade flows. With China imposing tariffs on US and Canadian farm products, there are new opportunities for soybean and palm oil producers to increase their market share in China.

 

 

 

 

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