Global Ag News for Apr 23

 TODAY—CATTLE ON FEED—COMMITMENT OF TRADERS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 8 cents; HRW down 5; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 11 to 9 cents; Soybeans down 11; Soymeal down $5.00, and Soyoil down 20 to 45 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 47 cents; HRW up 54; HRS up 41; Corn is up 47 cents; Soybeans up 81 cents; Soymeal up $13.00, and; Soyoil up 435 points. Crushing margins are down 3 cents at $0.65 (July); Oil share up 1% at 41%.

Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 54 yuan in soybeans, up 22 in Corn, up 42 in Soymeal, up 154 in Soyoil, and up 156 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 75 ringgit at 4,064 (basis July) at midsession supported still on tight supplies, higher rival vegoils.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was notably wet from West Texas through the western half of Oklahoma May 2 – 4 with as much as 2.00 to 8.00 inches of rain suggested.  Last evening’s GFS model run was notably drier in the Northern Plains in week 2 of the outlook compared to the midday GFS model.

South America Weather Forecast: In Brazil, little to no rain is expected through next Thursday in northern Parana, northwestern Sao Paulo, eastern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Minas Gerais, southern Goias, and far southeastern Mato Grosso. This will keep concerns elevated about Safrinha corn production in these driest areas and monsoonal moisture is gradually exiting Brazil. Conditions in Argentina will be mostly favorable.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 72,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 23,000 Soybeans; bought 5,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 11,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 35,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 560,000 Corn; net long 219,000 Soybeans; long 61,000t Soymeal, and; net long 122,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,400 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,200; Corn up 9,900; Soybeans up 1,400 contracts; Soymeal up 3,200 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,100.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 10 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 5; Soyoil 968 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.

 Tender Activity—S. Korea feed groups seek 342,000t optional-origin corn—

 

For the week ended April 15th–

U.S All Wheat sales are unchanged versus a year ago, shipments unchanged with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase

By class, HRW wheat sales down 10%, shipments down 8%, with USDA down 8%

SRW down 26%, shipments down 28% (USDA down 18%)

HRS up 4%, shipments up 4% (USDA up 6%)

Corn up 90%, shipments up 83% (USDA up 50%)

Sorghum up 118%, shipments up 200% (USDA up 45%)

Soybeans up 61%, shipments up 68% (USDA up 36%)

Soymeal unchanged, shipments up 6% (USDA up 1%)

Soyoil down 32%, shipments down 16% (USDA down 12%)

 

Anomalous warmth could dominate most North American crop regions during May – Refinitiv Commodities Research

• Widespread warmth likely, with significant anomalies expected in some areas
  •The Southern U.S. Plains could suffer from lasting dryness
  •Equal chances for rainfall anomalies in the U.S. Corn Belt

MAY WEATHER OUTLOOK

Winter wheat will continue to progress through the heading stage across the U.S. during May. As expected, warm and dry conditions were observed across the Hard Red Winter (HRW) and Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat regions during April, which has drawn soil moisture levels down further.

The Biden administration hopes to convince farmers to set aside four million more of acres of land for conservation this year by raising payment rates in an environmental program, but farmers said surging crop prices make it a tougher sell. The push to enroll more land into the 36-year-old Conservation Reserve Program is a part of the administration’s campaign to counter climate change.

In the voluntary program, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pays farmers a yearly rent not to grow crops on environmentally sensitive land for 10-15 years as a way to prevent soil erosion, sequester carbon, reduce nitrogen runoff and provide habitats for wildlife. About 21 million acres are enrolled in the program, below the Congress-set limit of 25 million acres. The cap will gradually increase to 27 million acres by 2023. To entice farmers to add 20% more acres in 2021, the USDA is expanding the number of incentivized environmental practices allowed under the program, along with raising payment rates.

Daily price limits for Chicago Board of Trade grain and soy futures will expand in May following a routine half-yearly review, CME Group Inc, parent of the exchange, said on Thursday. The new limits go into effect on May 2, for trades dated May 3, CME Group said, potentially increasing volatility. The wider daily limits follow the exchange operator’s move on March 15 to expand speculative position limits, raising the number of CBOT futures contracts that non-commercial traders can hold.

Tyson Foods to Expand Arkansas Poultry Operation. Nearly 70 jobs to be created by $48 million project. Tyson Foods will invest $48 million as part of its commitment to accelerate the long-term growth of its poultry business and continued success of its Pine Bluff, Arkansas, poultry plant, company officials said. Nearly 70 jobs will be created by the project, which is expected to be complete by late 2021. “The demand for convenient, high-quality chicken products continues to grow and we’re investing in projects that meet the needs of our customers and consumers

POLL-U.S. March cattle placements seen up 33.7% from year ago-analysts – Reuters News

The report is expected to show a steep increase in the number of cattle placed in feedlots in March, the first comparison to the beginning of the pandemic last year. Placements tumbled in March 2020 as COVID-19 outbreaks closed slaughterhouses and slowed meat processing.

Selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Buenos Aires:

—In marketing year 2021/22, wheat production is projected at a record 20.5 million tons with exports of 13.9 million tons (including wheat flour). Barley production is also forecast on an upward trend to 4.8 million tons on increased area with exports expected to rise to 3.2 million tons. Corn production is forecast at 50.0 million tons, the third largest crop in history, and exports are projected to grow to 35.0 million tons. Similarly, sorghum area, production, and exports are forecast to rise with rice area and production showing positive growth trends as well.”

Argentina’s 2020/21 corn production will hit 50 million tonnes, up from 48.5 million tonnes previously forecast, due to a higher planting area and good yields in the Cordoba region, the Rosario grains exchange said. Its soy production remained stable at 45 million tonnes.

Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR has downgraded its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop to 79.5 million tonnes from 81 million tonnes, it said. The forecast was lowered as farmers will need to resow wheat on a large area of Russia’s central region after the winter, IKAR said in a note.

• FARM OFFICE FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES 85% OF FRENCH SOFT WHEAT IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITION BY APRIL 19 VS 86% PREVIOUS WEEK
• FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES 81% OF FRENCH WINTER BARLEY IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITION BY APRIL 19 VS 83% PREVIOUS WEEK
• FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES 77% OF FRENCH DURUM WHEAT IN GOOD/EXCELLENT
• FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES 87% OF FRENCH SPRING BARLEY IN GOOD/EXCELLENT CONDITION BY APRIL 19 VS 88% PREVIOUS WEEK
• FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES 41% OF FRENCH GRAIN MAIZE SOWN BY APRIL 19 VS 18% PREVIOUS WEEK

Euronext wheat and rapeseed climbed further on Thursday to set new contract highs as a grain market rally continued with support from supply concerns and short-covering in nearby futures. September milling wheat settled up 7.50 euros, or 3.5%, at 220.75 euros ($265.10) a tonne, after earlier reaching a new life-of-contract peak at 222.00 euros.