Global Ag News for Apr 23.2025

TOP HEADLINES

MARS Is ‘Cautiously Positive’ on European Crop Yield Forecasts

Grain crops in most European Union countries are forecast to see fair to good yields, the bloc’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit said in its latest report.

• Southern Europe has benefited from abundant rainfall, but dryness in central and northern Europe is raising concerns
  • Regions of France, Germany, and Poland have seen a rainfall deficit of at least 50% compared with the average
  • “For most of them, the analysis period ranks among the driest since 1991”
• Turkish crops are also facing cold spells and lack of rain during winter period, reducing yield outlooks
• Winter crop season also remains poor in western Maghreb and eastern Ukraine

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 in SRW, down 1/2 in HRW, up 1 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 7 1/4; Soymeal up $1.50; Soyoil up 0.25.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 11 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 7 1/4; Soybeans up 5 1/2; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.06.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 3/4 in SRW, down 12 1/4 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 19 3/4; Soybeans up 25; Soymeal up $1.60; Soyoil up 2.89.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.7% in SRW, down 2.3% in HRW, up 0.4% in HRS; Corn is up 3.7%; Soybeans up 4.4%; Soymeal down 4.6%; Soyoil up 20.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans up 34 yuan; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil up 54; Palm oil up 94; Corn up 6 — Malaysian Palm is up 69.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 22 were: SRW Wheat down 2,036 contracts, HRW Wheat down 769, Corn down 6,411, Soybeans up 228, Soymeal down 2,330, Soyoil down 5,300.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 22 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: Heavy precipitation is expected across much of the U.S. Plains during the next 10 days, with the highest totals in North Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry conditions will continue to favor harvest progress across Argentina during the next 10 days
• EUROPE: Wet weather is expected across much of Europe during the next 5 days, before widespread dry weather takes hold during the 6-10 day period
• SOUTH ASIA: Increasingly cooler conditions are expected across much of India during the next 10-15 days, with the largest anomalies in the eastern half of the country

 

WARMTH TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA

What to Watch:

• Widespread warmth to dominate the North American forecast
• Wet weather in the U.S. Plains

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE 22 APRIL 2025

What to Watch:

• Rains will continue across the second-crop areas of Central Brazil in the next week, while increased activity will be observed in South-Central areas in the nearest days
• A dominance of dry conditions will support harvests in Argentinian Pampas in late April and early May

 

The player sheet for 4/22 had funds: net sellers of 5,500 corn, sellers of 2,500 soybeans, and sellers of 3,000 soymeal.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Jordan’s state grains buyer purchased about 60,000 metric tons of hard milling wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A group of South Korean flour mills has issued an international tender to purchase about 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States only
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat was amended to April 21.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 18 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.007m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.643m bbl vs 26.814m a week ago

 

MGEX Spring Wheat Stocks Up 37.2% From Year Ago: April 20

Stocks of hard spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin warehouses rose y/y to 18.115m bushels in the week ending April 20, according to the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s weekly report.

• Compared to the previous week, stockpiles rose by 21k bu
• Stockpiles in Duluth/Superior warehouses down 82k bu from the previous week

 

Ukrainian wheat production unchanged, but drought risk remains

2025/26 UKRAINE WHEAT PRODUCTION: 19.9 [18.9-20.9] MILLION TONS, UNCHANGED FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent warm and wet conditions keep 2025/26 Ukrainian wheat production at 19.9 [18.9-20.9] million tons (mmt), but drought risk remains. Production for Ukraine excluding Crimea and occupied oblasts (Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Kherson) is placed at 18.8 million tons.

The past two weeks featured warm and wet (8-28 mm above normal precipitation) weather conditions across Ukraine. Thanks to that, soil moisture levels have improved in the eastern Oblasts like Ternopil, but the main wheat producing Oblasts (Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Vinnytsia, and Zaporozhia) need more rains to alleviate the soil moisture levels deficits.

According to the latest weather forecast, above normal temperatures will be in store till the end of this week. Moving forward, cool, and dry conditions will persist for the next two weeks. We will monitor satellite imagery and weather condition and update our forecast accordingly.

 

Lower crop, high demand push Ukraine rapeseed prices up, producers say

The expected decline in Ukraine’s 2025 rapeseed harvest amid strong external demand could lead to a jump in rapeseed export prices to $540-$560 Carriage Paid To (CPT) from the current $490-$510, Ukrainian producers union UAC said on Wednesday.

Ukraine is a traditional European grower of rapeseed but its harvest could fall to 3.4 million metric tons in 2025 from 3.7 million tons in 2024 due to a smaller sowing area and poor weather.

UAC said that competition between exporters and local processors also contributed to the rise in new crop rapeseed prices.

Indicative export prices, with delivery in July-August, are within $510-$515 per ton, while processors are ready to pay $535-$545, the union noted.

“The main trade is likely to be on the spot. There will be few forwards as farmers are afraid of risks,” UAC said.

Analyst APK-Inform said this month Ukraine was likely to export 2.72 million tons of rapeseed in the new 2025/26 July-June season versus 3.14 million tons in 2024/25. Ukraine exports its rapeseed mostly to the European market.

Local consumption could increase to 679,000 tons in 2025/26 from 563,000 tons in 2024/25.

 

India starts raising palm oil buying as prices fall below soyoil

India has started raising palm oil purchases after a lull of five months as a correction in prices has made the tropical oil cheaper than rival soyoil, encouraging refiners to place orders to replenish inventories, four dealers told Reuters.

Higher purchases by India, the world’s biggest buyer of palm oil, will support benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures, which have fallen nearly 10% so far in 2025.

“Indians had pulled back on buying palm oil because it was too pricey. But now that it’s cheaper than soyoil, refiners are placing orders,” said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Crude palm oil (CPO) is currently being offered at about $1,050 a ton, including cost, insurance and freight (CIF), in India for May delivery, compared to around $1,100 for crude soyoil, dealers said.

Indian buyers started trimming purchases from December as palm oil’s premium over soyoil jumped above $100.

India imported 1.57 million tons of palm oil from December to March. Shipments for April are expected to be around 350,000 tons, bringing the average monthly imports for the five-month period to 384,712 tons.

India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil each month during the marketing year that ended in October 2024, said the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, which is set to publish its April import data by mid-May.

The country’s palm oil imports are likely to rise above 500,000 tons in May and exceed 600,000 tons in June. From July to September, the monthly average could be more than 700,000 tons, dealers said.

Stocks in India have depleted due to lower-than-normal imports over the past five months, and now refiners need to increase imports to replenish them, said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

Morocco 2025 Grains Harvest 4.4M Metric Tons, up 41% Y/Y: MAP

Agricultural GDP to rise 5.1% in 2024-2025 season after 4.8% contraction in 2023-2024, the state-run MAP news agency reports citing the Agriculture Ministry.

• Soft wheat harvest seen at 2.4m tons; durum wheat at 1m tons; barley 950k tons
• Cereal planted areas rose to 2.62m hectares versus 2.47m hectares in 2023-2024
• Rainfall rose 19% y/y in the 2024-2025 farming calendar year

 

NORTH AMERICA WEATHER IS LIKELY TO TREND DRIER IN MAY IN A POTENTIAL SUMMER PRELUDE

What to Watch:

• A cool month ahead is likely across key areas of North America, though forecast uncertainty is high
• Dry, quiet weather could be in store for most of the U.S. and Canadian Prairies in May which could heighten drought risks
• The combination of cool/dry conditions spanning most North America crop regions will support spring planting progress, while raising downside risks to winter wheat development

 

USDA to Give $340.6M in Natural Disaster Assistance to Farmers

The US Department of Agriculture will provide $340.6 million in assistance for farmers and rural communities affected by natural disasters, according to a Tuesday statement.

• USDA will also provide $25M in North Carolina and $18M in Tennessee to communities affected by hurricanes since 2022
  • That includes $20M for safe drinking water, waste disposal and electric infrastructure; $15.6M for rebuilding infrastructure in rural communities
• Funding will come from the USDA Disaster Assistance Fund
  • Trump administration “is making key improvements to the fund, cutting bureaucratic inefficiencies that will enable USDA to put Americans first” by addressing a backlog of requests and waiving eligibility criteria like income requirements

 

 

 

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