Global Ag News for Apr 21.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Global soybean market attention begins to shift to North America

2024/25 SOYBEAN MARKET OUTLOOK – APRIL 2025

Soybean prices saw considerable volatility over the past four weeks. The U.S. trump administration’s series of tariff announcements shocked the market early April, though the price drop was temporary and soon followed by a relatively quick recovery. The USDA’s reduced area outlook for U.S. soybeans late March and less-than-ideal early season soil moisture conditions in central Soy Belt also supported the price rebound. As the South America crop season is largely approaching its finish line, the market attention slowly begins to shift to the U.S. sowing season dynamics and its summer weather outlooks, neither of which currently promises a rosy picture.

The near-term direction of the market will likely be driven by any changes in the overall weather pattern in Both North and South America, as sowing season begins in the U.S. and harvest season kicks off in Argentina. Brazil soybean season is essentially complete, with a record high yield and production, which must have already been factored in into the current overall bearish trend.

The long-term direction of the market will likely be dictated by the demand-side dynamics, mostly attributed to the U.S.-China trade relationships and reciprocal tariff plans, which remain very much subject to change. With Brazil’s strong presence as an alternate seller to China, a further disruption in global trade pattern may be to come.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1/4 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 3; Soybeans up 2 3/4; Soymeal up $0.20; Soyoil up 0.21.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 8 1/4 in SRW, down 13 in HRW, down 8 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 2 1/2; Soymeal down $2.60; Soyoil up 0.71.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 1/2 in SRW, up 1/4 in HRW, up 13 in HRS; Corn is up 30; Soybeans up 22 1/4; Soymeal up $3.90; Soyoil up 3.16.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.6% in SRW, down 0.4% in HRW, up 1.8% in HRS; Corn is up 5.8%; Soybeans up 4.2%; Soymeal down 3.7%; Soyoil up 20.9%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 25) Soybeans down 7 yuan; Soymeal up 24; Soyoil down 26; Palm oil down 88; Corn down 1 — Malaysian Palm is down 64.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 64 ringgit (-1.61%) at 3911.

 

There were changes in registrations (-96 Soyoil). Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 360 Soybeans; 1,359 Soyoil; 1,170 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 17 were: SRW Wheat down 5,086 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,718, Corn up 8,749, Soybeans up 325, Soymeal down 4,998, Soyoil down 2,427.

 

Northern Plains: Some limited showers moved through over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. A system will move through on Monday with scattered showers and another should move through later in the week. The rainfall amounts will not be enough to ease drought, but will maintain overall decent soil moisture for most of the region. Some cooler temperatures will be in place most of the week, but nothing overly cold. Soil temperatures should be increasing regardless, allowing for some more planting to get done in areas that aren’t so chilly.

Central/Southern Plains: A stalled front made for training thunderstorms from central Texas into Missouri, where heavy rainfall and severe storms occurred over the weekend. Limited areas of the southwestern Plains received precipitation, but other areas stayed unfavorably dry. That would be concerning, but multiple fronts and systems are forecast to move through the region going into early May, which may bring some of these drier areas some needed rainfall. If they get missed too often, winter wheat conditions will continue to fall. The multiple rounds may also limit spring planting in some areas as well.

Midwest: A stalled front and system moving through have brought more rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the region, including some heavy rain across Missouri and into parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin as well. Light to moderate rain has fallen elsewhere, building soil moisture but limiting opportunities for planting. Some southern areas are still too wet as well. Showers will favor northern areas this week, but southern areas next week, as the storm track continues to be busy through the region.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: A front moved into the region Sunday night with scattered showers. The front will get stuck in the region for most of the week, bringing periods of showers daily through at least Friday. Some areas remain too wet for much planting and the rain moving through this week will not be helpful either. The Mississippi River remains in flood stage along most of the path through the region. The rainfall this week will not be helpful, though water levels are forecast to drop later this week.

Brazil: Scattered showers have been moving through much of central Brazil over the last week, favorable for maintaining soil moisture for safrinha corn in most areas. Showers should be limited early this week, but should pick up in intensity and coverage as a front goes by late week. Another should go through late this weekend into next week, extending the wet season while corn pollinates and begins the fill period. After a scare of dry conditions for April, much of the region has received near or above normal rainfall, favorable for the corn.

Argentina: Limited showers went through southern areas over the weekend, but most areas have stayed dry. Drier conditions have favored the continued harvest. A couple of fronts will move through this week, but showers again look limited and mostly favorable. The country would prefer for rainfall to come at least somewhat regularly to maintain soil moisture for winter wheat, which will start to be planted in May.

Europe: Scattered showers have been moving through Europe fairly regularly over the last week and continue this week as well. That has favored winter wheat development, but also produced some delays to planting. However, most areas now have good soil moisture outside of the northeast, which needs more rain. Rainfall this week will largely miss those drier areas in the northeast and the pattern should be quieter and milder next week. Poland especially could have more concerning weather conditions, at least for the time being.

Black Sea: It was dry over the weekend with above-normal temperatures speeding along winter wheat development. The conditions have been good for planting, but not for plant growth. Limited showers will move through this week, but a front moving through this weekend will usher in some cooler temperatures and more dry conditions for next week. Overall, it’s still poor weather conditions for growth.

Australia: Limited showers went through southeastern Australia over the weekend, but many areas there are still very dry and need more rain. The same goes for much of the northeast, which has been much drier over the last couple of weeks. A couple of disturbances could bring through some areas of showers, but more areas will be missed than hit and will need more rain for wheat and canola planting and establishment. Western areas have been more favorable with periodic rainfall.

 

The player sheet for 4/17 had funds: net sellers of 2,000 corn, sellers of 1,500 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and sellers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Tunisia’s state grains agency is believed to have purchased about 75,000 metric tons of soft wheat to be sourced from optional origins in an international tender.
• WHEAT PURCHASE UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is believed to have purchased around 600,000 to 630,000 metric tons of milling wheat in an international tender that closed on Wednesday.

 PENDING TENDERS

• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice
• CORN, BARLEY AND SOYMEAL TENDERS: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed corn, 120,000 tons of feed barley and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Cattle on Feed Placements Rose to 1.84M Head in March

Placements onto feedlots of capacity of 1,000 or more rose 5.1% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report.

• Analysts were expecting a rise of 3.4%
• The US feedlot herd as of April 1 were down 1.6% y/y to 11.638m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots increased 1.1% to 1.725m head

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending April 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: Mexico with 157k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 411k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Mexico with 155k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 10, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Japan bought 7.1k tons of the 20.5k tons of pork sold in the week
• Japan led in beef purchases

 

China’s soybean imports from US jump in March, but Brazil set to dominate market

China’s soybean imports from the United States rose 12% in March from the same period last year, as shipments secured in late 2024 by buyers concerned about the potential for a trade spat between the U.S. and China arrived in port.

However, Brazil is expected to dominate the market in the coming months as its harvest season begins.

China brought in 2.44 million metric tons of the oilseed from the U.S. in March, according to the General Administration of Customs, or just under three-quarters of total imports.

“March arrivals reflect crushers’ precautionary purchases in Q4 last year amid concerns over renewed trade tensions should Trump return to office,” said analyst Rosa Wang at Shanghai-based agro-consultancy JCI.

Imports from Brazil dropped 69% in March to 0.95 million tons, or 27% of total soybean imports for the month. Slower shipments were partly attributed to harvest delays in the Latin American country.

Total soybean arrivals in March tumbled to their lowest for the month since 2008.

For the January-March quarter, China’s soybean shipments from the U.S. rose 62% from a year earlier to 11.6 million tons. Shipments from Brazil were 4.5 million tons, down 55% from a year earlier.

This brings Brazil’s market share in the first quarter to 26%, compared to the 68% for the United States, according to Reuters calculations.

Analysts forecast China’s soybean imports could reach a record 31.3 million tons in April-June, driven by the arrival of freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s bumper crop.

 

China’s Soybean Stockpiles Plunge to Lowest in Three Years

China’s stocks of soybeans slumped to their lowest in nearly three years, as falling imports tightened supplies and supported prices of soybean meal.

National inventories of imported soybeans at Chinese ports stood at 5.6 million tons as of Monday, their lowest since December 2022. The world’s top buyer of the oilseed shipped in about 3.5 million tons of soybeans in March, the lowest monthly level in more than a decade, as a slow start to harvests in top supplier Brazil delayed shipments.

Still, large arrivals of soybeans from Brazil are expected in the next few months, which will likely ease the supply crunch.

Stocks of soybean meal in China are also falling to approach their lowest level in almost a year. The most actively traded soybean meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.8% to 3,045 yuan per ton.

China typically turns to Brazil for soybean supplies as the first quarter comes to an end but a trade war with its second-largest supplier US and low stockpiles have heightened local market concerns. Importers stepped up purchases of Brazilian beans this month, as China’s retaliatory tariffs made purchases of American crops unprofitable.

 

China To Achieve Higher Grain, Soybean Output in 2025: Xinhua

China’s 2025 grain output is projected to hit 709 million tonnes, Xinhua said Sunday, citing a report by the Chinese Agriculture Outlook Committee under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.

• The expected gain in grain output is underpinned by efforts to boost crop yield and growing enthusiasm for grain planting, Xinhua cited the report as saying
• China’s soybean output is expected to reach 21.17 million tonnes this year, up 2.5% y/y
• As domestic production rises and consumption growth eases, China’s imports of bulk agricultural products are expected to decline, it says

 

SovEcon Raises 2025 Russian Wheat-Output Forecast to 79.7m Tons

SovEcon increased its forecast for Russia’s wheat production in the 2025-26 season by 1.1m tons to 79.7m tons, due to better-than-expected winter crop survival, it said in a note.

• The winter-wheat crop forecast was raised to 52.2m tons from 50.7m tons
• The outlook for spring production was trimmed to 27.5m tons from 27.9m tons, due to smaller plantings
• The overall wheat harvest would still be the smallest since 2021
• “Although recent weather has been favorable, overall crop conditions remain below average, and soil moisture deficits persist in many regions,” SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov said
• It remains cautious, with forecasts for the coming weeks suggesting dry and abnormally warm weather, limiting the potential for further crop improvement

 

Russia PM says about 90% of winter crops in good or satisfactory condition

About 90% of Russia’s winter crops are in a good or satisfactory condition, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Friday, urging the government to provide farmers with everything they need for the spring sowing campaign and fieldwork.

The state of winter crops in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, caused concern after reports late last year that at least 37% of winter crops were in a poor condition.

Russian grain crops were hit by extreme weather from early spring frosts to drought in 2024, resulting in a 14% fall in grain harvest and lower exports, compared with the previous year.

“Today, about 90% of winter grain crops are in good and satisfactory condition, so we expect that the spring fieldwork will be successful,” Mishustin told a government meeting.

He also emphasised the need for more farms to have insurance to protect against adverse weather conditions and pledged state support to assist farmers with insurance costs. Last year, only a fifth of all seeded areas were insured, he said.

IKAR consultancy sees the 2025 grain harvest at 129.5 million metric tons, above the 126 million tons gathered last year. The wheat harvest is seen by IKAR at 82.5 million tons in a baseline scenario.

 

Russia’s March seaborne grain exports fell 58% to 2.3 million tons

Russia’s seaborne grain exports dropped by 58% year-on-year in March, falling to 2.3 million metric tons, according to shipping data from industry sources released on Friday.

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, shipped grain to global markets at a record pace during the first part of the 2024/25 marketing season, which began on July 1 of last year. However, the introduction of export quotas in February led to a sharp decline in exports.

Total seaborne exports have exceeded 40 million tons this season, which is a 10.5% decrease compared to the previous year, according to the data.

For the entire 2024/2025 season, Russia’s grain exports are expected to fall by one-fifth from the previous season’s record, reaching 55-57 million metric tons, due to a harvest affected by bad weather, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

Exports from Black Sea terminals, which supply Russia’s traditional customers in the Middle East, dropped by 56.1% to almost 2.2 million tons.

Exports through the Caspian Sea, primarily targeting Iran, were almost halted in March, reaching only 1.2 million tons, a 99.8% decrease compared to March 2024, the data showed.

Grain exports from Baltic Sea terminals, which serve new markets for Russian grain, including West Africa and Latin America, increased by 1% in March, according to the data.

Seaborne exports accounted for about 90% of Russia’s total grain exports last season. Last year, Russia exported about 62 million tons of grain through its sea terminals, according to analysts’ estimates.

 

IGC Raises Global Grain Stockpile Forecast for 2025/26

Global grain stockpiles are expected to total 580m tons in the 2025-26 season, according to the International Grains Council, up 2m tons from last month’s initial forecast.

• That would put stockpiles steady y/y, around at 10-year low
• Total grain production seen steady at 2.37b tons
• Ending stock forecasts were raised from last months forecasts:
  • Wheat raised 1m tons to 260m tons
  • Corn raised 1m tons to 281m tons
  • Rices raised 2m tons to 180m tons from
• Soybean stocks are seen steady at 83m tons

 

CORN/CEPEA: Purchasers are away from closing trades; prices move down again

Corn prices are decreasing again in many regions surveyed by Cepea, after moving up in the previous period.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 2.1% between April 10 and 16, closing at BRL 83.78 per 60-kilo bag on April 16. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, from April 10-16, corn values moved down 0.7% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.9% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Purchasers are now opting for using inventories, being away from closing deals in the spot market, expecting price drops. Many sellers, in turn, are focused on crop activities and are flexible regarding values. There are rain forecasts, which can reduce concerns about possible impacts of the dry weather in March in some areas in Paraná and in Mato Grosso do Sul.

SHIPMENTS – According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 120.35 thousand tons of corn in nine producing days of April, higher than the 66.13 thousand tons verified in the entire month of April 2024.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), corn quotations downed 0.8% between April 10 and 16. The US dollar decreased 0.6%, closing at BRL 5.87 on April 16.

CROPS – Conab indicates that second crop sowing activities finished in Brazil, and crops conditions are good in many regions. The summer crop harvesting, in turn, is at 65.5% of the area, more than the average over the last five years (2020-2024), of 60.3% – data from Conab.

 

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Harvesting progress boosts liquidity; prices are firm

As the 2024/25 soy harvesting is close to the end, the soybean supply has been increasing in the domestic market, boosting trades. However, low levels of export premiums and the sharp dollar oscillation prevented liquidity from being even higher.

Expectations of higher demand from China also end up pushing away some soy producers from closing trades, since they expect higher prices.

Data from Secex indicate that Brazil shipped 7 million tons of soybeans in this partial of April, and the daily average is 16.5% above that verified in April/24. The higher volume of exports is related to the increase of the domestic surplus, because of an output that is 13.6% higher than in 2024, according to Conab.

The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) downed 0.5% from April 10-16, to close at BRL 136.70 per 60-kg bag on April 16. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped 0.8% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 132.15 per 60-kg bag. On the average of the regions by Cepea, soybean prices rose 0.3% in both the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and in the wholesale market (deals between processors) in the same comparison. The US dollar dropped 0.6% against Real between April 10 and 16, closing at BRL 5.87 on April 17.

BYPRODUCTS – On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soymeal prices upped 0.4% between April 10 and 16. The Brazilian value of soy oil remained at 6,721.46 BRL per ton (in São Paulo city with 12% ICMS) on April 16.

CROPS – 2024/25 crop activities are heading to the end in Brazil. Conab says that 88.3% of the area had been harvested up to April 12, surpassing the 83.2% registered in the same period of 2024 and the 87.4% in the average over the last five years.

 

Indonesia’s March palm oil exports ease on rising local demand

Indonesia’s crude and refined palm oil exports dipped nearly 2% in March from February as local consumption rose due to Ramadan, but shipments remained the highest in four years for the month of March.

The higher exports than last year from Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of the tropical oil, will help in bringing down stocks and support prices that started trading at a discount to rival soyoil after holding premium for the last few months.

Indonesia exported 2.02 million metric tons of crude and refined palm oil in March, down slightly from the previous month’s 2.06 million tons, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday. But exports were still up 13% from March 2024.

March shipments were worth $2.19 billion, compared with February’s $2.27 billion, the data showed.

The bureau’s data excludes palm kernel oil, oleochemicals and biodiesel. Indonesia’s palm oil association GAPKI usually releases its own data at a later date, which cover more products and so has different export figures.

In Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, palm oil consumption usually rises during holy month of Ramadan.

There wasn’t a significant drop in Indonesian exports in March because its palm oil prices remained attractive to buyers compared to Malaysian offerings, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group.

“April exports are expected to be higher than March due to a strong buying by India and other Asian buyers,” he said.

Palm oil mainly competes with soyoil and sunflower oil supplies from Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine.

“Palm oil has now started trading at a discount to soyoil. This should boost exports in the coming months, when production is also expected to rise,” a New-Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house said.

Despite lower exports, palm oil inventories in Indonesia may have declined due to lower output during the Ramadan holidays and increased consumption with the country’s implementation of a 40% mandatory biodiesel blend, the dealer said.

 

US generated more renewable blending credits in March, EPA data shows

The United States generated more renewable blending credits in March versus the prior month, data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed on Thursday.

About 1.21 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in March, compared with about 1.12 billion in February, the data showed.

Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending rose to about 573 million in March from 450 million the month prior, the data showed.

The credits are used by oil refiners and importers to show compliance with EPA-mandated renewable blending quotas for petroleum-based fuels. They are generated with every gallon of biofuel produced.

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Rise, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river increased to 562k tons in the week ending April 12 from 367k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn rose 71% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments up 46.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $15.84 per short ton, a decline of $0.28 from the previous week

 

 

 

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