Global Ag News for Apr 2.24

TOP HEADLINES

Texan Contracts Bird Flu Once Exposed to Virus Spreading in Cows

A person in Texas contracted bird flu, most likely after being exposed to infected dairy cows, public health officials said, as an emerging outbreak among the animals spreads in the country.

The risk to the general population remains low, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. It is the second human case of bird flu, formally known as highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza, in the US since 2022 when infections started gaining speed in wild and domesticated birds and other mammals.

The patient, who had no symptoms apart from red eyes suggestive of conjunctivitis, is receiving antiviral drugs and recovering, according to the Texas Department of State Health Services.

The outbreak among dairy herds is relatively recent, with early reports of infected cows from Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Idaho. Unlike with chickens and other poultry flocks that are generally culled to prevent the spread of the virus, the US Department of Agriculture isn’t recommending the destruction of infected cows “at this stage.”

The situation is “rapidly evolving,” the USDA said. The CDC is working with state health departments to monitor people and groups that may be at risk.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, up 2 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 1/4; Soybeans up 1/2; Soymeal down $1.80; Soyoil up 0.45.

For the week & month so far wheat prices are down 7 in SRW, down 12 3/4 in HRW, down 7 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 3/4; Soybeans down 5 1/4; Soymeal down $6.10; Soyoil up 0.74.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.9% in SRW, down 10.8% in HRW, down 11.9% in HRS; Corn is down 7.6%; Soybeans down 8.3%; Soymeal down 14.1%; Soyoil up 1.8%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans up 15 yuan; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 44; Palm oil up 60; Corn up 12 — Malaysian Palm is up 26. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 26 ringgit (+0.61%) at 4293.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 1 were: SRW Wheat up 6,397 contracts, HRW Wheat up 715, Corn down 4,471, Soybeans up 3,298, Soymeal up 4,420, Soyoil up 8,449.

Weather: An intensifying storm system emerging from the western U.S. will reach the eastern Corn Belt late Tuesday before temporarily stalling over the Great Lakes region. Impacts from that slow-moving system will linger for much of the week across the Midwest and Northeast, with 5-day precipitation totals reaching 1 to 3 inches or more from the southeastern half of the Corn Belt to the northern Atlantic Coast. Those regions will also experience a transition from early-season warmth to cool, blustery conditions, along with snow showers. In advance of the surge of colder air, potentially severe thunderstorms will affect the nation’s southeastern quadrant, mainly on Monday and Tuesday. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 6 – 10 calls for the likelihood of near- or below-normal temperatures in the East and West, while warmer-than-normal weather will cover the Great Lakes States and the central one-third of the U.S.

The player sheet for 4/1 had funds: net sellers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 4,000 corn, sellers of 2,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: Saudi Arabia bought 795,000 metric tons of wheat in a tender, the General Food Security Authority said.
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from Argentina in an international tender on Tuesday
• RUSSIAN WHEAT EXPORT PRICES: Russian wheat export prices rose for the third week in a row.
• SUGAR PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), is believed to have bought 150,000 metric tons of raw sugar in a tender, traders told Reuters.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 113,535 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat, European traders said. The deadline for submission of price offers was Feb. 22, they said.
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.432m Tons of Corn for Export, 414k of Soybeans

In week ending March 28, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Soybeans: 414k tons vs 785k the previous wk, 504k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,432k tons vs 1,255k the previous wk, 1,098k a yr ago
• Wheat: 499k tons vs 433k the previous wk, 169k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 28

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 28 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 214k tons of the 414k total inspected
• Japan was the top destination for corn inspections, China led in wheat

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 441.5M Bu in February

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 10.7% higher than in February 2023
• DDGS production rose to 1.811m tons

Brazil 2023/24 Soy Harvest 74% Done as of March 28: Agrural

Compares with 69% a week earlier and 76% a year before, according to an emailed report from consulting firm AgRural.

Summer corn harvest 82% done in Brazil’s Center-South region as of March 28, compared with 75% a week earlier and 64% a year before

Brazil Winter Corn Planting 99.6% Done as of March 28: Safras

Compares with 99.4% last year and a five-year average of 97.5%, according to an emailed statement from consulting firm Safras & Mercado.

Works are 99.9% completed in Parana, 100% in Mato Grosso do Sul and 98.1% in Sao Paulo

USDA attaché trims Brazil 2023/24 corn crop estimate to 122 mln T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service post in Brasilia:

“Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY (marketing year) 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT (million metric tons). However, corn production is forecast to increase to 129 MMT in MY 2024/25, in line with an expected rise in consumption, especially by the feed and ethanol industries. Wheat crops have also suffered severe losses during the 2023/24 harvest, resulting in low-quality grains. This has led to an increase in wheat imports for MY 2023/24 to 5.5 MMT, which should drop to 4.5 MMT in 2024/25 as wheat production improves in the country. Meanwhile, rice producers have seen an increase in planted area and production this season, following two consecutive years of low prices and profitability.”

StoneX Trims Brazil Soy Crop Outlook to 150.8M Tons

Forecast for Brazil’s soy production in current crop is now at 150.8 million tons, down 0.5% from previous estimate in March, StoneX said in an emailed message Monday.

• Estimate reduction due to output decrease expected for states of Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná: StoneX
  • Soy production to be 4.7% smaller than last crop season if confirmed
• Final stocks outlook cut to 2.89m tons, down 11% from last month forecast, exports still at 93m tons
• Corn production estimate now at 124.23m tons, 0.2% lower than previous estimate and 11% smaller than last season: StoneX
  • Winter crop seen 0.2% smaller than in March as StoneX cut estimates for two states and raised for other two
  • Forecasts indicating climate may become drier in some regions are already raising concerns on corn, according to StoneX

WHEAT/CEPEA: Average monthly prices drop between 12% and 30% in one year

Domestic prices of wheat were practically stable in March, but the monthly price average was slightly below that verified in February/24 and much lower compared to that registered a year ago. In general, the pace of trades continues slow in the domestic market, since producers are focused on the summer crop, while purchasers search for high-quality wheat – the supply of this product is low.

Therefore, the monthly price average in Paraná was BRL 1,241.66/ton in March, downing 0.7% in relation to February and 24% compared to March/23, in nominal terms. In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was at BRL 1,173.65/ton, decreases of 1.3% and 19.4% in the monthly and annual comparisons, respectively. In São Paulo, the price dropped 0.4% and 30.6%, in the same order, averaging BRL 1,222.99/ton. In Santa Catarina, the average (BRL 1,394.80/ton) rose 1.6% comparing February and March, but moved down 12.6% in one year.

According to data from Cepea, between March 22 and 28, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.27% in Santa Catarina, but dropped 0.15% in Paraná, while they remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values increased 2.15% in São Paulo, but moved down 2.72% in Paraná and 0.14% in Rio Grande do Sul, with stability in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations upped 0.2% against Real, at BRL 5.01 on March 28.

Based on data from Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply), between March 18 and 22, the import parity price for the wheat from Argentina delivered to Paraná state was at USD 233.63/ton. Considering the average of the US dollar in that period, at BRL 5.0054, the wheat imported was sold at BRL 1,169.40/ton, while for the Brazilian wheat traded in Paraná, the average was at BRL 1,239.16/ton, according to data from Cepea. In Rio Grande do Sul, the price of the product from Argentina closed at USD 218.33/ton, which accounts for BRL 1,092.84/ton – against BRL 1,172.52/ton on the average of the state calculated by Cepea.

CROPS – According to Seab/Deral, the área in Paraná may be 17% smaller in this crop compared to the previous, totaling 1.17 million hectares. Production, in turn, is likely to increase 8% in the same comparison, reaching 3.9 million tons, due to the recovery in productivity.

According to data from Secex, Brazil had imported 436.23 thousand tons of wheat up to the fourth week of March, against 429.24 thousand tons in the entire month of March/23. Exports, in turn, had amounted 660.40 thousand tons in the same period, against 607.94 thousand tons in March last year.

India Expected to Import Wheat in the 2024-25 Season: USDA FAS

India will likely import wheat in the season that began in April despite forecasts of a record harvest, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service says in a report.

• Imports may total 2m tons on steady domestic demand, a decline in government stockpiles and relatively weak global prices
  • NOTE: That would mark the nation’s first time as a net-importer since 2017-18, it says
• Wheat harvest may climb to 112.5m tons, helped by large plantings and favorable weather, compared with about 110.6m tons a year ago
• Rice production will likely total 135m tons in marketing year that starts in October
  • Farmers are expected to increase plantings encouraged by strong local prices
  • The government is expected to ease restrictions on overseas sales, and exports may reach 18m tons

 

 

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