Global Ag News for Apr 2.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Ukraine keeps 2024/25 wheat export limits at 16.2 mln tons, deputy minister says

The Ukrainian agriculture ministry will not revise the volume of wheat available for export in the current 2024/25 July-June season despite the relatively high pace of shipments, the first deputy minister said on Tuesday.

Ukraine limited 2024/25 wheat exports to 16.2 million metric tons and traders have already exported almost 13 million tons, ministry data shows.

“No changes are planned. Everything is according to the memorandum,” Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters in a written comment.

Ukraine, a global grain grower and exporter, traditionally exports most of its wheat in the first half of the season and gradually decreases shipments in the remaining months, switching to corn.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 4 3/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 5 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $2.20; Soyoil down 0.04.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 7 1/2 in SRW, up 10 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2; Soybeans up 5 1/4; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil up 2.24.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.9% in SRW, up 0.5% in HRW, down 1.3% in HRS; Corn is down 0.7%; Soybeans up 3.0%; Soymeal down 5.7%; Soyoil up 19.2%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 41 yuan; Soymeal up 4; Soyoil up 62; Palm oil up 146; Corn up 11 — Malaysian Palm is up 99.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 99 ringgit (+2.24%) at 4518.

 

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 1 were: SRW Wheat down 748 contracts, HRW Wheat up 4,973, Corn down 1,546, Soybeans down 6,523, Soymeal up 6,427, Soyoil up 2,131.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 01 APRIL 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: An active pattern will bring heavy precipitation to many U.S. crop regions during the 5-day forecast, with extreme anomalies expected between Arkansas and Ohio (up to 175 mm / 7 in above normal)
• SOUTH AMERICA: Cold and dry conditions are expected across the Argentina Pampas through at least the next 10 days
• AFRICA: Wet weather should favor parts of West Africa’s cocoa belts during the next 10 days
• EUROPE: A sharp temperature drop is expected across Eastern Europe during the 6-15 day time frame

 

EXTREME RAINFALL IN PARTS OF THE U.S. THIS WEEK

What to Watch:

• Well above normal rainfall from Arkansas through Ohio
• Shifting temperature pattern during the next two weeks

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 01 APRIL 2025

What to Watch:

• Cool and dry weather in Argentina
• Split rainfall pattern in Brazil

 

The player sheet for 4/1 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 4,500 corn, buyers of 14,000 soybeans, sellers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 15,000 soyoil.

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on March 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.
• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 

 

 

 

TODAY

US Soybean Crushings at 189M Bushels in February: USDA

USDA releases monthly oilseed report on website.

• Crushing 2.3% lower than same period last year
• Crude oil production 2.2% lower than same period last year
• Crude and once-refined oil stocks down 10.4% y/y

 

US Corn Used for Ethanol at 421.2M Bu in February

The following is a summary of US corn consumption for fuel and other products, according to the USDA.

• Corn for ethanol was 5.4% lower than in February 2024
• In total, mills consumed 465m bu of corn in February, a 6.3% decline over last year
• DDGS production fell to 1.695m tons

 

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending March 28 are based on six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.043m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 27.227m bbl vs 27.35m a week ago

 

StoneX Cuts Outlook for Brazil Soybeans, Still Sees Record Crop

Forecast for 2024-25 marketing year cut to 167.5 million tons, from 168.3 million tons estimated in March, StoneX said in a statement.

• Crop expected to be 12% larger compared with prior season, reaching a record
  • Forecasts for southern state Rio Grande do Sul cut by 6.6%, to 14.7 million tons, due to dryness, high temperatures
  • Estimate for top soy producer state Mato Grosso raised by 1.6% to 49.6 million tons, 26% larger than 2023-24 season
• Estimate for soy ending stocks cut to 3.7 million tons from 4.5 million tons in March
  • Soy exports forecast kept at 107 million tons
• Corn estimate cut by 0.9% from March to 129.7 million tons
  • Ending stocks reduced to 17.5 million tons, from 18.6 million tons expected in March
  • Outlook for first corn crop cut by 2.4% to 25.9 million tons as low rains in northeastern producing states reduced yields
  • Second corn crop seen 0.5% smaller than March estimates mainly due to lower yields in southern Parana state

 

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Drop 36% Y/y During Season to March 30

EU soft-wheat exports in the season that started July 1 totaled 15.7m tons as of March 30, compared with 24.5m tons for the same period last year, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations included Nigeria with about 2.25m tons, Morocco with 2m tons and Algeria with 1.35m tons
• Barley exports were at 3.76m tons, down 21% y/y
• Corn imports totaled 15.8m tons, up 13% y/y

 

US EPA’s upcoming proposal on biofuel blending mandates to cover two years, sources say

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency plans to release a proposal on biofuel blending mandates that covers two years worth of mandates, instead of a proposal that covers three years, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

Under U.S. law, oil refiners must blend billions of gallons of biofuels into the nation’s fuel mix, or buy credits from those that do.

 

Brazil Soy Exports Seen At 16.09 Million Tns In March – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN AT 16.09 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 15.56 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN AT 2.17 MILLION TNS IN MARCH VERSUS 2.30 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS ESTIMATE

 

Ukraine April wheat exports seen at 1 million tons, producers union says

Ukraine’s wheat exports are expected to remain high at 1 million metric tons in April, against 1.1 million tons in March, Ukrainian farm producers union UAC said on Wednesday.

UAC’s statement said that March exports were among the highest of the current season.

“Traders have already contracted 850,000 tons of wheat for April and could reach 1 million tons. Despite overall stagnation in demand on the European market, Ukrainian grain is finding buyers, particularly in Egypt,” UAC said.

Ukraine is a global major wheat grower and exporter but the farm ministry last year limited 2024/25 wheat exports to 16.2 million tons aiming to ensure stable wheat supply to a domestic market to prevent a jump in bread prices.

Traders have already exported almost 13 million tons of wheat, according to the ministry, and Farm Minister Vitaliy Koval said on Tuesday he believed traders were complying with all ministry requirements on export volumes.

First Deputy Minister Taras Vysotskiy told Reuters that the ministry would not revise the volume of wheat available for export in the current 2024/25 July-June season despite the relatively high pace of shipments.

“No changes are planned. Everything is according to the memorandum,” Vysotskiy said.

Ukraine traditionally exports most of its wheat in the first half of the season and gradually decreases shipments in the remaining months, switching to corn.

UAC said it expected a decrease in Ukrainian new harvest wheat prices by about $20 per ton Carriage Paid For (CPT) to the Black Sea to $190-$200 per ton in July.

“If possible, you should not rush to sell. Historically, in July-August, the market is saturated with wheat from all major exporting countries – Ukraine, Russia, Romania, and U.S. and even with a deficit balance, the price usually falls,” UAC noted.

The union said the price might rise to $220-$235 per ton CPT in October-December.

 

Delays in Paraguay soybean barge transit affects crushers in Argentina

An accumulation of sediment in the Paraguay River on Tuesday delayed barges carrying Paraguayan soybeans to Rosario, Argentina, according to transportation and crushing chambers from both countries.

Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean oil, relies on Paraguayan soybeans at this time of year, as the Paraguayan harvest has ended but Argentina’s harvest begins this month.

The sediment buildup occurred in the Paraguay River at the mouth of the Bermejo River, near the Parana River, which is part of the route used by barges to reach Rosario.

Gustavo Idigoras, president of Argentina’s grain exporters’ chamber CIARA-CEC, said the delays had affected the flow of barges to Argentina.

Argentina’s grain processing industry also purchases soybeans from Argentine producers, although the latter have withheld more beans than usual due to uncertainty regarding the exchange rate of their currency.

Raul Valdez, president of the Paraguayan Shipowners’ Center (CAFyM), told Reuters the delays also impacted iron ore exports to Brazil.

Valdez also noted that conditions on the river had improved in recent days, due to rising river levels and dredging.

Paraguay’s soybean exports dropped 14.2% in the first two months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.

 

Malaysia’s March Palm Oil Exports Seen At 1,049,254 Metric Tons – Amspec Agri

MALAYSIA’S MARCH PALM OIL EXPORTS SEEN AT 1,049,254 METRIC TONS VERSUS 1,009,634 METRIC TONS IN FEBRUARY – AMSPEC AGRI

 

India’s March palm oil imports rise but stay below normal levels, dealers say

India’s palm oil imports in March increased from the previous month but remained below normal levels for the fourth consecutive month, as its premium over rival soyoil prompted refiners to boost soyoil purchases, according to five dealers.

Lower-than-normal palm oil imports by India, the world’s biggest buyer of vegetable oils, could pressure Malaysian palm oil prices and support U.S. soyoil futures.

Palm oil imports in March rose 13.2% to 423,000 metric tons month-on-month, according to estimates from dealers. In early March, dealers had expected imports to surpass 500,000 tons for the month.

India imported an average of more than 750,000 tons of palm oil each month during the marketing year that ended in October 2024, said the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, which is set to publish its March import data by mid-April.

“Palm oil has been more expensive than soyoil for the past few months, and it’s reducing core demand,” said Rajesh Patel, managing partner at GGN Research, an edible oil trader.

Soyoil imports in March jumped 24% to 352,000 tons month-on-month, while sunflower oil imports fell 15.5% to 193,000 metric tons, the lowest in six months, dealers said.

Higher shipments of palm oil and soyoil lifted the country’s total edible oil imports in March to 968,000 tons, marking a 9.3% jump from the prior month, which saw imports fall to a four-year low, according to dealers’ estimates.

“Palm oil has been holding a premium over soyoil, even for shipments in April and May. That’s why palm oil imports in April will remain below 500,000 tons,” said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of Sunvin Group, a vegetable oil brokerage.

Imports could begin to rise from May onward, with a significant increase anticipated from July onward, when palm oil becomes competitive with soyoil, Bajoria said.

India buys palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia, while it imports soyoil and sunflower oil from Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Ukraine.

 

Levy on Key Herbicide Would Harm US Farmers, Corn Group Says

Corn producers battling lower crop prices and higher farming costs would be further hurt if the US imposes levies on imports of the herbicide known as 2,4-D, National Corn Growers Association President Kenneth Hartman said in testimony to the International Trade Commission.

• “Without reliable access to herbicides, farmers stand to lose significant crop yield to weed damage,” Hartman said in prepared remarks
• Corteva, the petitioner in the case, is the only US supplier of the herbicide and doesn’t need trade protection: Hartman
  • Note: Tariffs on imports of the herbicide from China and India could restrict supplies of the weed killer widely used by US farmers, US lawmakers have said
• The 2,4-D imports are needed to meet US demand as new herbicides are slow coming to market and weed resistance to chemicals is growing: Hartman
• In separate testimony before the commission, Corteva said supplies from China and India are undercutting the company’s product
  • “We have witnessed a tremendous increase in imports coupled to a significant decrease in price of those same imports. As a result, Chinese and Indian producers are now selling to our former customers,” said Cynthia Ericson, vice president of weed control at Corteva
• Note: In April 2024, the US announced anti-dumping duty and countervailing duty investigations of 2,4-D from China and India; ITC is reviewing the orders to determine if Corteva has been harmed
• A decision from ITC is expected in six weeks: NCGA

 

US Agriculture Sentiment Weakens in March: Purdue Univ.

The Purdue University/CME Group’s agricultural sentiment index fell to 140 points in March from 152 in Feb., according to a survey of 400 agricultural producers.

• Current conditions component declined by 5 points from Feb.
• Future expectations down by 15 points
• “Weaker expectations for the future were key in pushing farmer sentiment lower in March. Weakening current conditions, which were largely attributable to lower crop prices, also contributed to the sentiment decline,” according to the report’s authors James Mintert and Michael Langemeier

 

 

 

 

Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.