Global Ag News for Apr 17.24

TOP HEADLINES

Brazil’s Abiove raises 2023 soy output view, raises beginning stocks

A revision of Brazilian soybean production in 2023 affected estimates for the country’s beginning stocks this year, according to new data released by oilseeds lobby Abiove on Tuesday.

With the upward revision pegging Brazil’s 2023 soy output at 160.3 million metric tons, a record, beginning stocks have been estimated at 5.9 million tons, 1.2 million metric tons more than calculated previously.

The group, which represents global soybean processors, also changed the country’s ending stocks to 5.2 million tons for 2024, versus around 4 million in the previous forecast. The new data comes as ample supplies of soybeans keep a lid on prices.

This year, soy fields in Argentina and Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul state recovered from weather-related losses in previous seasons, offsetting a fall in production in the country’s center west caused by a strong El Nino, which brought heat and dryness and spoiled crops.

Abiove did not change its forecast for 2024 soybean production in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, which it says will be 153.8 million tons.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 2 1/4 in SRW, down 2 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3/4; Soybeans down 1/4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.20.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 3/4 in SRW, down 6 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 3 3/4; Soybeans down 27; Soymeal down $6.80; Soyoil down 1.17.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 3/4 in SRW, up 1 1/4 in HRW, down 5 in HRS; Corn is down 11; Soybeans down 45 1/2; Soymeal down $3.70; Soyoil down 3.20.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 12.1% in SRW, down 8.9% in HRW, down 11.5% in HRS; Corn is down 8.3%; Soybeans down 11.5%; Soymeal down 12.8%; Soyoil down 6.5%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 24) Soybeans down 35 yuan; Soymeal down 51; Soyoil down 84; Palm oil down 122; Corn down 9 — Malaysian Palm is down 64. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 64 ringgit (-1.57%) at 4010.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 438 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 37 Corn; 499 Soybeans; 710 Soyoil; 26 Soymeal; 0 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 16 were: SRW Wheat up 1,580 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,657, Corn down 14,303, Soybeans up 7,651, Soymeal up 1,186, Soyoil up 12,056.

Northern Plains: A storm in the West is bringing widespread showers to the region into Wednesday, which includes some breezy winds in some areas. Cold air will fill in behind the system through the weekend before temperatures rise back up above normal again next week. Despite some areas of heavier rain, large-scale delays to early planting are not expected.

Central/Southern Plains: A strong storm system is bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms through the region for Monday and Tuesday, though the driest areas in the southwest did not get much out of this storm. Instead, strong winds will likely dry out soils more than they already are and severe storms have been rolling through the region as well. Later this week, the actual cold front to the system will move through and temperatures will drop significantly late this week and weekend and could produce frost damage for winter wheat.

Midwest: A long and drawn-out storm system will move through this week and produce more widespread precipitation. Areas in the west that are still in drought will get some good amounts to move through, though wetter areas in the east should as well. Severe storms are also forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. The system will bring in some colder air late this week and weekend for a few days but widespread frosts are not forecast in wheat areas. Between bands of precipitation, planting is likely to start up and delays are likely to be short-lived.

Delta: Heavy rain has led to areas of water-logged soils and flooding, which will slow planting down for a while. A long and drawn-out system will bring through a few rounds of showers this week that will keep soils wet, but probably won’t be enough to make it worse. The region may or may not get more of a break next week if the busy pattern slows down a bit.

Brazil: A front will move through the country this week and showers will get more isolated as the week wears on, though they will continue over the north. The consistent wet season showers will be winding down behind this front and fronts coming north from Argentina will become the main source of precipitation thereafter. That does not bode well for safrinha corn in central Brazil that still has below-normal subsoil moisture and will run out quickly in May as more of the crop goes through pollination and fill. Southern areas have seen some improvement lately, but are not in great shape either. The chances for this area to get some needed rain in the future is higher and a front is forecast to move in early next week.

Argentina: A system pulled south through the region over the last few days and brought widespread heavy rain. Behind this system though, it will be much drier. With harvest continuing to increase for corn and soybeans, the drier forecast will be more favorable. It does look like a system will go through with showers this weekend, however.

The player sheet for 4/16 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and sellers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) in South Korea purchased about 70,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from either the United States or South America in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: Leading South Korean feedmaker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased around 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from either the United States or South America in a private deal on Tuesday without an international tender being issued
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said on Tuesday it bought 120,000 metric tons of Ukrainian wheat in an international tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 68,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in a private deal on Tuesday without issuing an international tender
• RICE TENDER DELAYED: The deadline for price submissions in the international tender from Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog to buy 300,000 metric tons of rice has been delayed to April 17.
• FOOD WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 94,612 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on April 18.
• NO PURCHASE IN WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which closed on Tuesday.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tonnes of soymeal.
• FEED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.

 

 

 

TODAY

ETHANOL: US Weekly Production Survey Before EIA Report

Output and stockpile projections for the week ending April 12 are based on seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

• Production seen lower than last week at 1.035m b/d
• Stockpile avg est. 26.146m bbl vs 26.208m a week ago

Brazil Soy Exports Seen Reaching 13.74 Million Tns In April – Anec

BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 13.74 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 12.73 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK

BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.58 MILLION TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 2.45 MILLION TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK

BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 26,728 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 26,728 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK

BRAZIL WHEAT EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 110,592 TNS IN APRIL VERSUS 140,592 TNS FORECAST IN PREVIOUS WEEK

Brazil 2023/2024 Soybean Sales Seen At 41.6% Of Expected Output Until April 5 Versus 43% A Year Earlier – Datagro Graos

BRAZIL 2023/2024 SOYBEAN SALES SEEN AT 41.6% OF EXPECTED OUTPUT UNTIL APRIL 5 VERSUS 43% A YEAR EARLIER – DATAGRO GRAOS

Brazil’s Deral bearish on Parana’s second corn crop

The estimate for the second corn harvest in Parana state, the second largest producer in Brazil, will likely be cut in the next revision, according to an official at crop agency Deral.

Deral’s corn specialist Edmar Gervasio told Reuters on Tuesday corn fields are facing adverse weather in Parana, adding last weekend’s rains only brought some relief.

“Expected output is already below the last estimate,” Gervasio said. “Fields have been battered by dryness and excessive heat.”

In March, Deral said Parana’s farmers would reap 14.2 million metric tons of second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same fields. That already represented a 400,000 ton fall from a prior forecast. Deral will release a new forecast for the crop on April 25.

Brazil’s overall second corn output has been pegged at 85.6 million tons by Conab, the country’s crop agency. That is a 16% drop from the previous year driven in part by a reduction of the planted area.

Favorable warm weather increases Russian wheat production outlook – LSEG Commodities Research & Forecast

2024/25 RUSSIA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 89.8 [87.9-94.2] MILLION TONS, UP 1.6% FROM LAST UPDATE

Recent favorable warm weather increases 2024/25 Russia wheat production to 89.8 [87.9-94.2] million metric tons (mmt), including 65.1 mmt of winter wheat and 24.7 mmt of spring wheat. Our current estimate does not include occupied Ukrainian Oblasts. Thanks to warm and relatively dry conditions, spring plantings are progressing faster than last year with 3.3% completed. As farmers intend to switch from cereals to other more profitable crops, especially to peas and soybean, we placed spring wheat planted area at 12.8 million hectares, 9.1 % lower than prior season’s 14.1 million hectares reported by ROSSTAT.

The last two weeks featured warm and dry condition 2-8°C above average temperatures and 7-15mm below normal precipitation in Central, Southern and North Caucasian Districts. But soil moisture reserves remain satisfactory in Central and Volga District. According to the latest weather forecasts, warm temperatures ranging between 4-8°C above normal are expected across major winter and spring wheat regions. Wet weather (5-25 mm above normal precipitation) is expected across most of Russian Districts. Overall, warm weather and mostly fair soil moisture levels bode well for both winter wheat development and spring wheat plantings. We will monitor upcoming weather conditions and update our forecast accordingly.

Indonesia March Palm Oil Exports Rise 15.8% M/m: Intertek

Indonesia’s palm oil exports rose 15.8% m/m in March, according to Intertek Testing Services.

• Palm oil exports rose to 1.845m tons from 1.59m tons in February
• Crude palm oil shipments were 191,419 tons
• RBD palm olein shipments were 742,387 tons
• RBD palm oil shipments were 323,052 tons
• Palm oil sales to European Union was 328,380 tons
• Palm oil sales to India was 642,054 tons
• Palm oil sales to China was 266,567 tons

 

 

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