Global Ag News for Apr 13.23

TOP HEADLINES

Argentina’s Milei Promises to Scrap Farm Export Taxes If Elected

Presidential hopeful Javier Milei said he would unify Argentina’s FX rates and scrap taxes on crop shipments in a bid to boost farm exports, La Nacion reported, citing Milei’s remarks at an event in Buenos Aires.

• Patricia Bullrich, another opposition candidate, said she would unify FX rates and gradually eliminate export taxes
• NOTE: The moves would be reminiscent of Mauricio Macri’s in December 2015, when he brought Argentina out of a previous set of interventionist economic policies

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 3 in SRW, down 5 1/2 in HRW, down 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $0.52; Soyoil down 0.42.

For the week so far wheat prices are down 3 1/2 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, down 13 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 9 1/4; Soybeans up 20; Soymeal up $1.14; Soyoil down 0.79.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 20 1/2 in SRW, down 21 in HRW, down 37 1/2 in HRS; Corn is down 6 1/2; Soybeans up 7 3/4; Soymeal up $1.30; Soyoil down 1.88.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 14.7% in SRW, down 3.2% in HRW, down 8.6% in HRS; Corn is down 3.1%; Soybeans down 0.2%; Soymeal down 3.1%; Soyoil down 15.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans up 29 yuan; Soymeal up 15; Soyoil down 72; Palm oil down 156; Corn down 3 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 63 ringgit (-1.67%) at 3712.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 2,463 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 22 Corn; 26 Soybeans; 613 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 12 were: SRW Wheat down 10,469 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,129, Corn down 10,105, Soybeans down 7,510, Soymeal down 3,695, Soyoil down 127.

Northern Plains Forecast: Recent above-normal temperatures in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies have been melting the snowpack, starting the flooding process. Though cooler temperatures will move through over the next few days and should remain near to below normal through next week, the melting should continue. Cooler temperatures come with chances for showers through Saturday, including a burst of snow in Montana and the potential for a couple of spots elsewhere to pick up a brief little bit of snow as well.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Some spotty showers may develop across the Central and Southern Plains Thursday and Friday as a system approaches. Though spotty, they could be significant in some areas. More widespread showers are forecast to move through northern areas Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, dry conditions remain a concern for winter wheat. The system this week is also bringing strong winds, which would be unfavorable for all locations, and especially those that do get rain, as it would sap that moisture right out.

Midwest Forecast: Dryness and above-normal temperatures in the Midwest over the last several days have been favorable for spring fieldwork. Snowpack in the north continues to melt off. A system will bring a few waves of showers through the region Friday through Monday, which may be cold enough for some areas of snow as well. A burst of colder air will move through behind the system, stalling progress on fieldwork and planting. Temperatures will be more on a seesaw, rising again next week, but likely falling again behind the next system later next week.

Delta Forecast: Showers will increase in the southern Delta with a system coming out of the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days and another front moves through on Saturday. Many areas are fairly wet from recent rainfall, limiting fieldwork and planting. Precipitation is becoming less frequent, but still steady through the rest of April, which may cause some areas to become too wet, while others will find the proper conitions to get out into the field.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: A system is moving through Argentina with scattered showers through Thursday but is more isolated over the main growing region. Another should go through early next week. Soil moisture has improved recently, but crop conditions are still poor due to heat and drought over the summer. Systems are coming at a more frequent pace, which may help condition soil prior to winter wheat planting by the end of the month.

The player sheet for 4/12 had funds: net buyers of 1,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 2,000 soybeans, buyers of 1,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT PURCHASE: South Korean animal feed maker Nonghyup Feed Inc. (NOFI) purchased about 60,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat to be sourced from optional worldwide origins in an international tender on Wednesday
• MILLING WHEAT PURCHASE: A group of South Korean flour mills bought around 45,000 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in an international tender on Wednesday
• CORN PURCHASE: Taiwan’s MFIG purchasing group bought about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to expected to be sourced from Argentina in an international tender on Wednesday
• BARLEY PURCHASE: Japan will import 380 tonnes of feed-quality barley for livestock use via a simultaneous buy and sell (SBS) auction that closed late on Wednesday, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) said. The ministry had sought 60,000 tonnes of feed wheat and 20,000 tonnes of feed barley to be loaded by July 31 and arrive in Japan by Sept. 28.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 78,548 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 52,850 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Thursday
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• FAILED BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer is believed to have made no purchase in an international tender for 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley which closed on Wednesday.
• DURUM TENDER UPDATE: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC is expected to continue negotiations in its international tender seeking durum wheat on Thursday with only relatively small volumes of Mexican-origin durum bought so far.

PENDING TENDERS

• DURUM TENDER: Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has issued an international tender to purchase a nominal 50,000 tonnes of durum wheat.

TODAY

 US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.03% to 25.128M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 25.098 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.959m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.999m

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending April 6.

• Corn est. range 650k – 1,600k tons, with avg of 1,063k
• Soybean est. range 250k – 700k tons, with avg of 458k

China March soybean imports up 8% on year, demand muted

China’s March soybean imports rose 7.9% from the same month a year earlier, data showed on Thursday, bringing first quarter arrivals to a record even as demand failed to pick up as expected.

Total imports for March came to 6.85 million tonnes, according to the General Administration of Customs, making the first quarter number 23 million tonnes, up 13.5% from a year earlier and the highest for the period. CNC-SOY-IMP

“I think there was probably an expectation in December of demand coming back. The demand recovery has generally disappointed, but if an importer bought cargoes in December or January, they’re arriving in March,” said Darin Friedrichs, founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.

Though the March arrivals were lower than February, an unusual decline, imports are expected to pick up again in April and May to well over 9 million tonnes each month, according to analysts and traders, further weighing on soymeal prices.

Soybeans are crushed to make soybean meal, one of the major ingredients in animal feed and needed in large quantities for China’s huge hog herd.

Hog farmers, however, have been losing money since the start of the year, with hog prices hovering around 15 yuan ($2.18) per kg, pressured by weak demand and excess supply. JCI-HOGM-HENAN

“China’s pig farming is less profitable now, which is not conducive to the short-term demand for soybean meal,” said a Chinese futures analyst, who asked to remain anonymous.

Soymeal prices are already down by around a third since hitting a four-year high last November. JCI-SBM-RIZH

Crushers are reducing their soybean import plans in response to the weaker demand, and purchases after May could be lower than in previous years, an analyst at Donghai Futures told Reuters, declining to be named because of company policy.

Argentina grains exchange further cuts soy, corn forecasts

Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange on Wednesday further cut its forecast for the 2022/2023 soybean harvest to 23 million tonnes, down from 27 million tonnes previously estimated, as a historic drought pummels the country’s agricultural sector.

The exchange also cut its forecast for Argentina’s corn output to 32 million tonnes, down from the 35 million tonnes previously estimated.

“The March heat wave on top of the drought scenario have resulted in the worst domestic yields over the last 15 crop cycles,” it said in a report.

The world’s top exporter of soy oil and flour and the number three exporter of corn, Argentina has been hit hard by the drought, said to be the worst in 60 years, which began May last year.

When the season began mid-way through 2022, the exchange had forecast soybean and corn harvests of 47 million and 55 million tonnes, respectively.

EU Soft-Wheat Exports Rise 7.9% Y/y; Corn Imports Are Up 72%

The European Union’s soft-wheat exports in the season that began July 1 reached 23.8m tons by April 9, compared with 22.1m tons a year earlier, the European Commission said on its website.

• Leading destinations include Morocco (3.65m tons), Algeria (3.47m tons) and Nigeria (2.03m tons)
• EU barley exports were 4.72m tons, compared with 6.4m tons
• Corn imports stand at 21.7m tons, against 12.6m tons

EU 2022/23 soybean imports at 9.47 mln T, rapeseed 6.36 mln T

European Union soybean imports in the 2022/23 season that started in July had reached 9.47 million tonnes by April 9, against 10.86 million a year earlier, data published by the European Commission showed on Wednesday.

EU rapeseed imports so far in 2022/23 had reached 6.36 million tonnes, compared with 4.01 million tonnes a year earlier.

Soymeal imports over the same period totalled 12.17 million tonnes, against 12.77 million tonnes the prior season, while palm oil imports stood at 3.06 million tonnes versus 3.98 million tonnes a year ago.

The weekly publication was a day later than its usual Tuesday timing.

India’s March Palm Oil Imports Seen Higher on Softer Prices: GGN

Palm oil imports by the world’s biggest buyer probably surged 28% in March from a month earlier as weaker prices prompted traders and processors to increase purchases, according to Rajesh Patel, managing partner of GGN Research.

• Inbound shipments totaled about 748,000 tons, compared with 586,007 tons in February
  • Imports in March 2022 were 539,793 tons
• NOTE: Benchmark palm oil prices in Kuala Lumpur slumped more than 9% in March
• Last month’s shipments comprised 577,000 tons of crude palm oil and 171,000 tons of RBD palm olein
• Soybean oil imports fell to 259,000 tons from 355,840 tons a month earlier; sunflower oil purchases were 148,000 tons vs 156,628 tons
• Total edible oil imports in March were 1.16 million tons vs 1.1 million in February
• NOTE: The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India will release its vegetable oil import data for March in the middle of April
• Palm oil imports in March rose to 810,729 tons, according to Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive officer of consultancy firm Sunvin Group
  • India bought 259,175 tons of soybean oil and 202,374 tons of sunflower oil last month: Bajoria
  • Vegetable oil imports in March touched 1.27m tons

France Sees 2023 Soft-Wheat Area Rising From Year Ago: Ministry

Total France 2023 area for so-called straw cereals seen at 7.3m hectares (18m acres), up 0.3% y/y, its agriculture ministry said in a report on Wednesday.

• That would be 0.4% below the five-year average
• Of the total, the soft-wheat area is seen at 4.77m hectares, 1.7% higher than a year ago
  • Area for winter varieties seen at 4.75m hectares, slightly below a February estimate
• Barley area seen at 1.8m hectares, down 2.1% y/y
• Winter durum-wheat area seen steady at 233k hectares
• Rapeseed area seen steady at 1.34m hectares
  • That’s 9% higher than a year ago

Ukraine’s Grain Exports Fall 13% Y/Y in Season Through April 12

Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2022-23 season declined to 39.2m tons as of April 12, compared with 45.3m tons a year earlier, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• Total includes:
• 23m tons of corn, up 11% y/y
• 13.5m tons of wheat, down 27% y/y
• 2.3m tons of barley, down 59% y/y
• NOTE: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, disrupting grain flows

Brazil 2023 Soy Exports Estimate Raised to 93.7m tons by Abiove

Estimate for soybean shipments in 2023 was increased from 92.3m tons last month on rising demand from China and others Asian nations, industry group Abiove says in emailed statement.

• Soy-meal exports seen at 21m tons, up from 20.7m tons previously
  • Forecast was increased due to Argentina’s falling supplies
• Revenue from soybean complex exports may reach a record at $67b
• Soybean output estimate unchanged at 153.6m tons
• Crushing seen at 52.5m tons

Wheat Gains After Black Sea Grain Corridor Paused on Tuesday

• Kremlin said Wednesday prospects for renewal ‘not that good’
• Safe-corridor for Ukraine’s crop exports already faced delays

Wheat futures traded in Chicago gained as traders assessed the latest challenges for Ukraine’s Black Sea grain corridor.

The safe-export corridor for Ukraine’s crops ground to a halt on Tuesday, after no ship inspections were conducted under the deal that allows shipments of crops from three key ports. The United Nations said on Wednesday that planned inspections of ships were taking place.

The one-day halt is the latest challenge for the corridor agreement, which was renewed last month but still faces uncertainty over its duration. Russia has said it may quit if issues are not resolved in 60 days, while Ukraine reiterated last month that the deal had been extended for 120 days. The corridor has also been beset by delays.

“Today we are seeing a bit of a bounce, and there has been also commentary from the Kremlin criticizing the grain deal, which reminds the market to be a bit cautious,” Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera Arzeno said. The one-day halt on Tuesday “adds to the fragility of the deal,” he said.

“The prospects are not that good” for the extension of Black Sea grain corridor, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday, according to Interfax.

Wheat futures gained 0.6% to $6.78 a bushel. In other grains, corn rose and soy edged lower.

FranceAgriMer Trims Soft-Wheat Export Outlook, Raises Barley

French soft-wheat exports in the 2022-23 season are now seen at 16.95m tons, below the 17.08m tons forecast in March, crops office FranceAgriMer said in a report Thursday.

• Exports to non-EU countries cut to 10.4m tons, from 10.45m tons
• Stockpiles estimate raised to 2.61m tons, from 2.5m tons

BARLEY

• Exports raised to 6.23m tons, from 6.03m tons, on better demand from both EU and non-EU countries
• Stockpiles estimate cut to 1.32m tons, from 1.47m tons

CORN

• Stockpiles estimate raised to 2.15m tons, from 2.07m tons

Strategie Grains Cuts EU Wheat, Barley Crop Outlook on Dry Spain

EU soft-wheat production in the 2023-24 season is now seen at 128.9m tons, down from a previous estimate of 129.5m tons, analysis firm Strategie Grains said in a report.

• Crop ratings for wheat and barley have deteriorated in Spain because of dry weather, but “growing conditions for new season winter cereals are rather good across most EU countries,” it said
• NOTE: Parts of Spain have suffered from a severe rain deficit
• Strategie Grains sees prices for the European 2022 crop declining moderately, particularly for wheat

Kremlin warns outlook for Black Sea grain deal is ‘not so great’

• Kremlin: grain deal outlook ‘not so great’
• Kremlin: grain deal cannot stand on one leg
• Russia wants financial and insurance obstacles removed

The Kremlin warned on Wednesday that the outlook for extending a deal beyond May 18 that allows the safe wartime export of grain and fertilizer from several Ukrainian Black Sea ports was not great as Russia’s own such exports still faced obstacles.

The Ukraine grain Black Sea export deal was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey in July last year to help tackle a global food crisis that U.N. officials said had been worsened by the most deadly war in Europe since World War Two.

“No deal can stand on one leg: It must stand on two legs,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. “In this regard, of course, judging by the state of play today, the outlook (for its extension) is not so great.”

To help persuade Russia to allow Ukraine to resume its Black Sea grain exports last year, a separate three-year agreement was also struck in July in which the United Nations agreed to help Russia with its food and fertilizer exports.

Peskov said this deal “has not worked and is not working so far.”

Western powers have imposed tough sanctions on Russia over its Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine. Its food and fertilizer exports are not sanctioned, but Moscow says restrictions on payments, logistics and insurance are a barrier to shipments.

Last month, Russia only agreed to renew the Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal for at least 60 days, half the intended period. Moscow said it would only consider a further extension if several demands in relation to its own exports were met.

Those include allowing the Russian Agricultural Bank to return to the SWIFT payment system, allowing Russia to import agricultural machinery, the removal of insurance restrictions, port access for Russian ships and cargo, and an unblocking of the financial activities of Russian fertilizer companies.

Moscow also wants a pipeline that delivers Russian ammonia to a Ukrainian Black Sea port to be restarted.

Brazil lures China’s Cofco to finance recovery of degraded land

Chinese trader Cofco and other foreign players are interested in helping Brazil recover degraded farmland and reduce the carbon footprint of agriculture in one of the world’s largest food producers, said Carlos Augustin, special adviser to Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry.

Augustin told Reuters that Cofco expressed interest in the proposal during business meetings in late March, ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s trip to China this week.

“They have every interest,” said Augustin, adding that a Cofco delegation is expected for talks in Brasilia next month. “It would be a chance to multiply grain production and guarantee supplies.”

Launching the program with a major Chinese trader would underscore the importance of Brazil-China trade in Lula’s plans to reduce emissions in Brazil’s booming farm sector. China is Brazil’s biggest trade partner and Brazil accounts for 22% of Chinese imports, driven largely by farm goods.

After talks with the Brazilians in Beijing, Cofco Chair Lyu Jun expressed optimism for the future of cooperation talks, according to an agriculture ministry statement on March 24. He did not elaborate.

Brazil already offers subsidized credit lines for farmers converting degraded pastures to more productive crop fields, which sequesters more carbon and eases pressure to clear forests for planting. But the program only represents 2% of Brazil’s subsidized farm credit, or about 6 billion reais ($1.2 billion) in the latest crop.

A new model for public-private partnerships with foreign companies is still under discussion, said Augustin, which may involve Brazil’s development bank BNDES or direct contracts with farmers. One version would have farmers guarantee sale of their production to the companies that finance land recovery, he said.

Lula’s advisers estimate Brazil has some 30 million hectares (74 million acres) of underused pastureland where crops could replace ranching. Augustin said the ministry plans to focus initially in the midwest farm belt, where the Cerrado savanna is being cleared at nearly the same pace as the Amazon rainforest.

Deforestation of the Cerrado, the world’s most species-rich savanna, rose 25% last year to 10,689 square kilometers (4,127 square miles), according to government satellite data.

“You don’t need to deforest another hectare to increase (farm) production,” Augustin said.

However, financing remains an obstacle. Agriculture Ministry studies estimate a cost of 15,000 to 23,000 reais to recover one hectare of degraded land. With an aim of recovering 2 million hectares per year, the initiative could cost up to 46 billion reais annually, more than seven times the government’s current financing program.

Biden’s Auto Plan to Stamp Out Billions of Barrels of Oil Demand

• Proposal would be a blow to US refiners and biofuel makers
• EPA seeks to finalize the tailpipe pollution limits next year

The Biden administration’s plan to stifle auto pollution and spur electric vehicles is expected to shrink US oil demand by an estimated 17 billion barrels through 2055.

“We’re strengthening our energy security, we’re reducing our reliance on foreign oil,” and “we’re reducing our reliance on fossil fuels,” Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan said Wednesday.

The EPA estimated that its proposal, slated to be finalized next year, would curb US oil imports by as much as 16 billion barrels through 2055. And though the projected demand reductions would escalate over time, they translate to a 1.6 million barrel per day decline between 2027 and 2055 — roughly 10.2% from current levels, according to Bloomberg calculations.

While the proposal is a potential boon for EV automakers, the expected reduction in liquid fuel demand comes at the expense of crude refiners as well as biodiesel and ethanol producers.

The plan poses “significant downside risk to US gasoline demand” and will leave US refiners more exposed to the export market, potentially forcing some plants to close, said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemical and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.

The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers association issued a scathing critique of the proposal, saying the EPA erred by fixating on tailpipe emissions, rather than creating opportunities to lower the carbon intensity of fuels through carbon capture systems, renewable production and other technology.

Even with the EPA’s expectation that EVs will represent two out of every three cars and light trucks sold by 2032, conventional gasoline-powered cars will be on US roads for decades to come. Internal combustion engines will still occupy more than half of the light-duty vehicle marketplace by 2040, said Emily Skor, chief executive officer of the pro-ethanol group Growth Energy.

“The proposal puts a thumb on the scale for one technology at the expense of others,” Skor said, “rather than giving automakers the flexibility to pursue innovative strategies for decarbonizing light-duty vehicles.”

Some Fertilizer Prices Rise as Spring Planting Season Kicks Off

A spike in spring fieldwork and near-term demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten at New Orleans and at some inland terminals, contributing to higher prices for urea and phosphates. Ammonia prices remain weak, however, and the industry continues to await news of a new potash contract with China after last week’s India settlement.

Demand Pushes Urea, Phosphates, Potash Up

New Orleans (NOLA) barge prices for urea, phosphates and potash were up as spring fertilizer demand surges and product availability tightens. NOLA urea jumped to $357-$363 a short ton (st) at midweek vs. last week’s broad $318-$355, with phosphate barges climbing $15-$20 and potash firming $10 amid reports of very tight barge availability. The stronger NOLA markets pushed inland urea and phosphates up slightly in the Corn Belt and Western Canada, though potash remained flat in the Corn Belt and down in Western Canada. Lower ammonium sulfate postings in the Pacific Northwest pushed prices down $35-$45/st early in the week, while California urea prices slipped as well.

Prices or movements quoted in our Wednesday Whisper may not reflect the full range to be reported in the final Friday edition of the Green Markets weekly.

Brazil’s Low Off-Season Demand Limits Interest in Fertilizers

With estimates that one-third to 1/2 of the soybean crop remains unsold, cash-strapped farmers in Brazil are delaying fertilizer purchases in the off-season, focusing instead on selling soy.

Brazil Urea Prices Jump, Other Markets Flat

Urea prices in Brazil jumped to $330 a metric ton (mt) cost-and-freight from last week’s $295-$310, with bids reported around $320, limited offers at $350 and sanctioned tons $325. The firming market was attributed to a lack of offers from non-sanctioned origins, as most global sellers focus on New Orleans, with reports of some vessels being diverted from Brazil to capture a North American premium. Ammonium sulfate prices are expected to rise in the wake of the solidifying urea market, but new trades were few and prices still uncertain at midweek. Potash and phosphate prices were unchanged vs. last week, but both markets remain bearish on limited trading.

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