Global Ag News for Apr 11.2025

TOP HEADLINES

China Makes Big Brazilian Soy Purchase as US Trade War Worsens

Chinese soybean crushers scooped up an unusually large amount of Brazilian beans this week as the escalating trade war makes purchases of US crops unviable.

Importers bought at least 40 cargoes from Brazil in the first half of this week, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified as they’re not authorized to talk to media. They booked the supplies to take advantage of a recent dip in Brazilian prices, which had rallied in previous months amid the fallout of worsening Sino-US tensions, the people said.

While Beijing has moved to diversify its agricultural purchases in recent years — including buying more from Brazil, which is now its biggest soy supplier — the crop is still America’s top agricultural export to China. The trade spat escalated this week, with President Donald Trump hiking duties on China to 125%, after Beijing announced plans to retaliate with an 84% tariff.

The shipments are mostly for delivery in May, June and July, and are equivalent to at least 2.4 million tons, almost one-third of the average volume China typically crushes in a month, the people said. The world’s top soybean importer usually relies on Brazilian supplies starting from about February, when South American exports dominate the market. But this week’s buying spree is unusually large and fast, the people said.

Chinese buyers were also lured by higher domestic crushing margins, after soybean meal prices surged amid worries over the trade war.

Commercial buyers had largely avoided US beans in recent months due to trade-war risks, but China’s state stockpiler has still made purchases from the US to replenish reserves and rushed in cargoes before Trump took office in January.

Still, Brazilian soybeans could get more expensive if US-China tensions remain elevated, and a supply shortage may loom in the fourth quarter, when China usually turns to supplies from the new US harvest. That will likely keep Chinese crushers vigilant on buying when prices drop.

 

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 10 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is up 1 3/4; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.65.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 19 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 23 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 23 1/4; Soybeans up 45 1/2; Soymeal up $12.40; Soyoil up 1.10.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 11 in SRW, up 10 in HRW, up 16 in HRS; Corn is up 27 1/4; Soybeans up 10 1/4; Soymeal up $3.30; Soyoil up 1.98.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 0.6% in SRW, up 1.0% in HRW, up 2.1% in HRS; Corn is up 5.9%; Soybeans up 3.2%; Soymeal down 3.6%; Soyoil up 18.0%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans up 79 yuan; Soymeal down 19; Soyoil up 36; Palm oil up 78; Corn up 1 — Malaysian Palm is up 14.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 14 ringgit (+0.33%) at 4214.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 459 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 10 were: SRW Wheat down 373 contracts, HRW Wheat up 3,409, Corn down 83,894, Soybeans down 19,148, Soymeal up 19, Soyoil down 11,644.

 

SOUTH AMERICA WEATHER UPDATE FOR 10 APRIL 2025

What to Watch:

• Cool and dry weather in Argentina
• Warm and wet weather in Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Isolated showers passed through the region the last couple of days and a system is likely to bring scattered showers this weekend. Recent precipitation has been improving soil moisture in many areas, but long-term drought remains a problem heading into the season. There are still some chances going forward for an active pattern to bring more rainfall, but an active pattern hasn’t done enough to eliminate drought. Spring planting will be increasing, though temperature swings could cause some to pause a bit and wait for more consistent warmth.

Central/Southern Plains: Dry conditions this week with rising temperatures are favorable for fieldwork and planting, but not wheat development. Isolated showers are possible this weekend and next week, but forecasts are not very consistent and do not suggest large amounts of rain that some areas still need a lot more of.

Midwest: A small disturbance is bringing through some showers Thursday. Most areas will see little to no rain, but some streaks of moderate rain will unfortunately fall in some of these wet areas. Another system will move through Sunday and Monday, but likely with limited precipitation. Another is forecast for later next week. Overall below normal rainfall through next week, even with these couple of systems moving through, should be more beneficial for draining soils. Temperatures will continue to fluctuate quite a bit though, and may give some pause for doing fieldwork or planting until more consistent warmth settles in.

Delta/Lower Mississippi: Extreme wetness and flooding continues for a while. Draining these areas will take a long time. Some showers will move through northern areas Thursday and some additional showers will be possible with a couple of systems next week, but below-normal precipitation should overall aid the draining process. Fieldwork will be slow to recover and some replanting will have to be done due to the flooding.

 

The player sheet for 4/10 had funds: net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 11,000 corn, sellers of 5,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,500 soymeal, and buyers of 1,000 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• RICE PURCHASE: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. purchased an estimated 34,632 metric tons of rice mainly to be sourced from the United States in an international tender which closed on March 11.
• RICE PURCHASE: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer is believed to have to purchased about 50,000 metric tons of rice in an international tender which closed on March 27
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee bought around 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn expected to be sourced from the United States in a private deal late last week without issuing an international tender
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley
• AMENDED WHEAT TENDER: The offer deadline in an international tender from a state grains buyer in Syria to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of soft milling wheat has been amended to April 21.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued international tenders to purchase about 80,000 metric tons of rice.

 

 

TODAY

US Sold 172.3K Tons of Soybeans Last Week; 1.02M of Corn: USDA

USDA releases net export sales report on website for week ending April 3.

• Corn sales fell to 1,022k tons vs 1,338k in previous week
• All wheat sales fell to 215k tons vs 435k in previous week
• Soybean sales fell to 172k tons vs 414k in previous week

 

US Export Sales of Soybeans, Corn and Wheat by Country

The following table shows US export sales of soybeans, corn and wheat by biggest net buyers for week ending April 3, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Top buyer of soybeans: China with 141k tons
• Top buyer of corn: Mexico with 377k tons
• Top buyer of wheat: Unknown Buyers with 93k tons

 

US Export Sales of Pork and Beef by Country

The following shows US export sales of pork and beef product by biggest net buyers for week ending April 3, according to data on the USDA’s website.

• Mexico bought 8.9k tons of the 23.9k tons of pork sold in the week
• South Korea led in beef purchases

 

Argentina Soy Forecast Cut 1m Tons on Acreage Revision: Rosario

Satellite imagery shows a smaller planted area than originally calculated, meaning the Rosario Board of Trade trims its forecast for the soybean harvest by 1m metric tons, or 2.2%, to 45.5m, it said in a monthly report.

• On the positive side for yields, there are signs in central areas that grain-filling was better than first thought
• On the negative, frosts may have impacted some fields
• Soy harvest is just getting started
• Satellite images also show a bigger corn area, driving up the production estimate for the grain by 9% to 48.5m tons
• Corn harvest progress 20%

 

Argentine Soybean, Corn Estimates April 10: Exchange

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange releases weekly report on website.

• No changes to 2024-25 corn, soybean production
• Corn harvest advanced to 23.1% complete vs 20.3% in the previous week

 

Argentina’s soybean harvest delayed by persistent rains

Persistent rainfall in Argentina’s agricultural heartlands is delaying the soybean harvest, with headway slowing under the five-year average, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

Harvesting has been hampered by heavy rains, which have mucked up fields, while crop sales have also slowed as farmers pull back amid uncertainty over the government’s economic policies.

Farmers are pushing the government to slash export taxes on soybean shipments, a vital source of much-needed dollars for the flagging economy, as the local peso currency wobbles.

Soybean sales have slowed, affected by an uncertainty regarding the evolution of the exchange rate in the country and expectations of tax relief.

Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, is expected to harvest 48.6 million metric tons of soybeans this season.

“So far, 2.6% of the national soybean area has been harvested, down 8 percentage points from the same period last year and 4 points below the five-season average,” the exchange said in its weekly crop report.

Recent rains have also affected the corn harvest, though progress remains in line with last year’s pace.

According to the exchange, farmers have harvested 23.1% of corn fields, with production forecast at 49 million tons.

Early frosts were reported last week in the west of Buenos Aires province. The exchange said the impact on crops was uneven, and that it was assessing the damage to soy and corn.

 

Brazil 2024-25 Soybean Crop Seen at 167.87M Tons: Conab

Output est. raised from 167.37m tons, Brazil’s national supply co. says in its monthly report.

• Analysts in a Bloomberg survey were expecting 167.8m tons
• Yield seen higher at 3,533 kg/ha vs 3,527 kg/ha last month
• Area planted raised to 47.516m ha vs 47.451m ha last month
• Corn production est. raised to 124.7m tons vs 122.8m tons
• Cotton production est. raised to 3.89m tons vs 3.82m tons

 

Brazil farmers sell more than half of their 2024/25 soybean crop – Agroconsult

Brazilian farmers have sold more than half of their 2024/25 soybean crop, which is estimated at a record 172.1 million metric tons this season, Andre Pessoa, president of agribusiness consultancy Agroconsult, said on Thursday.

Speaking at the headquarters of the Santos Trade Association, Pessoa said Brazilian soybean farmers have sold “extraordinary” volumes of soybeans over the last few days as a global trade war escalates.

Brazil, the world’s biggest soybean producer and exporter, will ship around 106 million tons of soybeans this year, according to Agroconsult projections. Most of that volume will be absorbed by China, the world’s largest importer and Brazil’s main trader partner.

At this time last year, Brazilian farmers had not sold as many soybeans, Pessoa said. Brazil’s total soybean production in the 2023/2024 season reached 155.5 million tons, according to Agroconsult’s data.

 

Brazil’s soybean farmer selling up to April hits record, says Datagro

Soybean sales by Brazilian farmers for the 2024/25 crop reached a record of 88.2 million metric tons, a volume never seen in a season up to April, consultancy Datagro said out on Thursday.

The total was based on sales of 52.2% of the soybean crop up to the first week of April, Datagro said, noting the progress was driven by higher premiums for the oilseed, amid the trade war between China and the U.S.

 

Brazil’s Top Port to Expand Capacity by 67% by 2035

Brazil’s Santos port, one of South America’s top ports, is aiming to move 300 million tons of cargo by 2035, Beto Mendes, operations director at Santos Port Authority says during an event in Santos, Sao Paulo.

• That compares with 179.8 million tons imported and exported in 2024
  • Roughly 30% of cargoes are soybeans or corn; 60% are agribusiness products
• Port is also looking to boost capacity for moving containers
  • Container imports and exports at Santos have risen roughly 10% annually, topping average 5% increase of total movement
  • Containers capacity expected to double in four years, from current level of 6.6 million tons: Mendes
• New liquid bulk terminal, currently in tender process, may allow higher ethanol shipments, possibly to Japan

 

Brazil to pursue US talks while seeking to expand trade deals, says official

Brazil will pursue trade negotiations with the U.S. while reaffirming its support for multilateralism and seeking to expand its network of trade agreements, Foreign Trade Secretary Tatiana Prazeres said on Thursday.

“Our approach (with the U.S.) is to negotiate, negotiate, and negotiate – that’s what we’ve been doing,” Prazeres said at an event organized by the Brazil-China Business Council (CEBC).

She stressed that increasing sales to the European Union – with whom the South American Mercosur bloc hopes to ratify a long-awaited trade deal- could help diversify exports.

Mercosur is also advancing talks with EFTA, the European Free Trade Association formed by Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Liechtenstein, she noted.

According to Prazeres, Latin America’s largest economy could benefit from trade flow shifts caused by sweeping new tariffs announced earlier this month by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, as occurred in the past when Brazilian soybean exports to China surged during Trump’s first term.

However, she emphasized that Brazil does not favor a scenario of volatile and unilateral tariff swings hampering the global economy, emphasizing that for some commodities, Brazil simply does not have a market that can replace what China buys.

“There are significant risks for the global economy, international trade, and trade governance,” she warned.

“Brazil has always supported multilateralism and rules-based trade and does not want to see the current situation deteriorate.”

On China, Brazil’s top trade partner and a major buyer of its soybeans, iron ore and crude oil, Prazeres said that removing sanitary, phytosanitary and regulatory barriers could significantly boost Brazilian exports.

She also called the bilateral relationship “dual,” noting that while China is a major buyer of Brazilian goods, its exports also put pressure on domestic industries such as consumer goods and automobiles.

Chinese investment in Brazil’s auto sector and in productive capacity has helped ease some of those tensions, said Prazeres.

 

Brazil to Strengthen Soy Inspections Aiming at China Clearance

Brazil sent a document to Chinese authorities proposing to strengthen inspections of exporters and logistics operators in the soybeans supply chain, says Hugo Caruso, the director of vegetable products’ inspection department at the country’s Agriculture Ministry.

• Goal is to obtain clearance for five soybean export plants whose shipments were suspended in January
  • Suspension occurred after Chinese customs authorities detected seeds treated with pesticides, and presence of pests in cargoes of soybeans
  • NOTE: China Suspends Soybean Imports From Some Brazilian Exporters
• Chinese authorities still haven’t responded: Caruso
• Brazil is also studying changing its own sanitary norms to improve inspection procedures

 

Ukraine Grain Exports Down 8.8% Y/y in Season to April 11

Ukraine’s grain exports in the season that started in July 1 reached 33.8m tons as of Friday, down 8.8% versus a similar time last year, the Agriculture Ministry said on its website.

• The total includes:
  • 13.4m tons of wheat, about 8% lower y/y
  • 2.2m tons of barley, up 6% y/y
  • 17.7m tons of corn, down 12% y/y
• Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers continued sowing for the coming season, with plantings of spring grains and legumes reaching 1.06m hectares
  • NOTE: That’s about 16% behind last year’s pace, according to ministry data
  • Spring wheat sown on 141,000 hectares so far
• Total area for 2025 spring planting is expected to reach 5.7m hectares, steady with the prior year: ministry

 

India March Vegetable Oil Imports Rise to 998,344 Tons: SEA

India’s vegetable oil imports rose to 998,344 tons in March from 899,565 tons in February, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

• Palm oil imports rose to 424,599 tons from 373,549 tons in February
• Soybean oil imports rose to 355,358 tons from 283,737 tons in February
• Sunflower oil imports fell to 190,645 tons from 228,275 tons in February

 

Western Australian wheat area likely to fall in 2025, GIWA says

The amount of land planted with wheat in Western Australia is set to decline by around 400,000 hectares, or 9%, this year due partly to lower availability of fallow land, an industry association said on Friday.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (GIWA), in its first report of the growing season, estimated that 4.19 million hectares in the state would be planted with wheat, down from 4.59 million last year.

“There was a large area of fallow sown to cereals in 2024, which is not available for plantings in 2025,” GIWA said.

However, it predicted that area for planting barley and canola would rise, with 1.87 million hectares of barley to be sown, up from 1.77 million last year, and 1.775 million hectares of canola, up from 1.65 million hectares in 2024.

Southern parts of the state, which vie with New South Wales as Australia’s top grain producing region, have moisture in the soil but northern areas are very dry, GIWA said.

“The total area sown could easily hit 9 million hectares, similar to last year, with canola pushing well over the 1.8 million hectare mark if it rains,” the report said.

“But if it is dry and warm in May as forecast, crop area could drop back to 8.5 million hectares as it was in 2023.”

Western Australia produced 12.45 million tons of wheat in 2024, its third-biggest harvest on record. Sowing takes place between April and June with harvest in the final months of the year. The state exports most of its grains.

Analysts expect Australia’s total wheat production to fall by around 16% this season due to dryness in some major cropping areas.

 

DRIER WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN TO THE BLACK SEA REGION AS RAINS SHIFT INTO EUROPE

• Rains will overspread Europe during the next 1-2 weeks, and warmth will persist for some time before any cold risks appear
• A brief cool spell will impact the Black Sea Region into next week, but warm and dry conditions will then dominate into late April
• Returning dryness will elevate downside risks to Eurasia winter wheat development, while winter crops in Europe will benefit from upcoming rains

 

US Miss. River Grain Shipments Fall, Barge Rates Decline: USDA

Barge shipments down the Mississippi river declined to 367k tons in the week ending April 5 from 686k tons the previous week, according to the USDA’s weekly grain transportation report.

• Barge shipments of corn fell 45% from the previous week
• Soybean shipments down 50.8% w/w
• St. Louis barge rates were $16.12 per short ton, a decline of $0.96 from the previous week

 

 

 

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