Global Ag News for Apr 1.2025

TOP HEADLINES

Trump Push for US Fertilizer Won’t Be Enough to Replace Imports

President Donald Trump has included potash among the minerals that need an immediately ramp up in US production. That’s unlikely to significantly break America’s reliance on fertilizer imports.

The US gets roughly 90% of its potash — used in the production of corn and soybeans, the nation’s two biggest crops — from other countries. Most of that comes from neighboring Canada, the top producer. US potash production accounts for less than 1% of the country’s total demand, according to Corey Rosenbusch, chief executive officer of the Fertilizer Institute.

“Increased production helps, but we still would be very reliant on Canadian potash,” Rosenbusch said in an interview Friday.

Farmers and fertilizer companies are bracing for possible new US tariffs this week, just as planting season gets under way. The potential for 10% to 25% duties on potash and other Canadian fertilizers coming into the US poses the risk of higher costs for growers that in turn are passed along to consumers.

Rosenbusch said he’s hopeful that Canadian fertilizer might be spared new levies. The Fertilizer Institute, the US lobby for the industry, has been pushing for the federal government to add potash to its permanent list of critical minerals, which are considered essential to US national security and the economy.

While noting there are no guarantees, “we would feel a lot better about our ability to make the case for specific exemptions if it were on the list,” Rosenbusch said.

Michigan Potash & Salt Co. is among companies seeking to ramp up domestic output of potash. The closely held firm has identified a huge potash deposit in Michigan with an estimated value of “up to $65 billion” that can be accessed, according to founder and CEO Theodore Pagano.

The company aims to produce about 10% of the US’s potash needs by 2028, and could ultimately reach as much as 40% with the one reserve, said Chief Operating Officer Aric Glasser.

 

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 1 1/4 in SRW, down 2 1/4 in HRW, up 1 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 1 3/4; Soymeal down $0.70; Soyoil up 0.33.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 10 in SRW, up 3 in HRW, up 12 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans down 6 1/2; Soymeal down $1.50; Soyoil up 0.06.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 2.4% in SRW, down 0.8% in HRW, down 0.4% in HRS; Corn is up 0.1%; Soybeans up 1.8%; Soymeal down 5.1%; Soyoil up 13.7%.

Chinese Ag futures (MAY 25) Soybeans down 11 yuan; Soymeal down 14; Soyoil down 34; Palm oil up 42; Corn up 2 — Malaysian Palm is up 107.

Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 459 SRW Wheat contracts; 0 Oats; 223 Corn; 760 Soybeans; 1,455 Soyoil; 1,223 Soymeal; 344 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of March 31 were: SRW Wheat up 1,063 contracts, HRW Wheat up 773, Corn up 35,432, Soybeans up 5,846, Soymeal up 3,933, Soyoil down 5,570.

 

DAILY WEATHER HEADLINES: 31 MARCH 2025

• NORTH AMERICA: A sweeping cold pattern will move across North America during the next 10 days, likely lasting across the Eastern U.S. during the 11-15 day period
• SOUTH AMERICA: Dry weather will prevail across Northeast Brazil during the next 10 days, while wetter conditions are expected in bordering parts of the Center West, South, and Southeast
• EAST ASIA: Widespread and significant warmth is expected across China through the next two weeks
• BLACK SEA: Well above normal temperatures will prevail across the Black Sea region through 5 days, though a sharp temperature drop is expected across Ukraine and surrounding areas during the 6-15 day period

 

WET SPELLS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH BRAZIL WHILE ARGENTINA REMAINS DRY

What to Watch:

• Dry weather in the Pampas, favorable to corn harvesting
• Wet weather in Brazil

 

Northern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Midwest West: Scattered showers Tuesday-Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Midwest East: Scattered showers Tuesday night-Wednesday, south Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to above normal Friday. Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday-Sunday. Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday-Wednesday.

 

The player sheet for 3/31 had funds: net buyers of 6,500 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 13,500 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 3,000 soymeal, and sellers of 500 soyoil.

 

TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: A state grains buyer in Syria issued an international tender to purchase about 100,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

 PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY, SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL delayed the deadline for submissions of price offers in international tenders to purchase up to 120,000 tons each of animal feed corn, feed barley and soymeal to March 17 from March 12
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 119,847 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed on March 27.
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 metric tons of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 metric tons of animal feed barley.
• RICE TENDERS: The lowest price offered in a tender from Bangladesh’s state grains buyer to purchase 50,000 metric tons of rice that closed on March 27 was estimated at $416.44 a metric ton CIF liner out.

 

 

 

TODAY

US Inspected 1.614m Tons of Corn for Export, 793k of Soybeans

In week ending March 27, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Wheat: 436k tons vs 485k the previous wk, 569k a yr ago
• Corn: 1,614k tons vs 1,538k the previous wk, 1,472k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 793k tons vs 827k the previous wk, 515k a yr ago

 

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: March 27

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending March 27 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 622k tons of the 793k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

 

US Winter Wheat Crop Conditions by State for March 30: USDA

The following shows the most current winter wheat conditions for selected states as of March 30, according to the USDA’s state crop progress and conditions reports.

• Kansas conditions unchanged from the previous week at 49% good/excellent
• Oklahoma conditions lowered to 33% good/excellent from 37%
• Texas conditions lowered by 5 percentage points to 26% good/excellent

 

USDA February soy crush seen at 188.7 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush likely dropped in February to 5.662 million short tons, or 188.7 million bushels, according to analysts surveyed by Reuters ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday.

If the average of eight analyst estimates is realized, it would be down 11.2% from the 212.5 million bushels crushed in January and down 2.4% from the 193.4 million bushels crushed in February last year, which was a day longer due to the leap year.

Crushing rates have generally increased in recent years as several new plants have come online while other crushers have expanded capacity to meet rising demand for soyoil from biofuel makers.

The daily crush pace last month slowed from January due to harsh winter weather that reduced plant efficiency and as a glut of soymeal in the market prompted some plants to slow output, analysts said. But the processing rate of 6.739 million bushels a day, based on analyst estimates, was up 1% from February 2024 as more crush plants were in operation.

Crush estimates for February ranged from 187.0 million to 191.0 million bushels, with a median of 188.5 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Tuesday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of February 28 were estimated at 2.268 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from four analysts.

The oil stocks estimate, if realized, reflects an 8.5% jump from supplies totaling 2.090 billion pounds at the end of January and a 5.6% increase from February 2024 stocks of 2.147 billion pounds.

Estimates ranged from 2.125 billion to 2.325 billion pounds, with a median of 2.310 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 177.870 million bushels in February, while end-of-month oil stocks rose to 1.503 billion pounds.

 

Russia’s 2025-26 Wheat Output Forecast Cut to 80.3m Tons: Argus

Argus cut its forecast for Russia’s 2025-26 wheat crop to 80.3m tons from a previous projection of 81.5m tons after conducting a virtual crop tour.

• That volume would be below the five-year average
• Of the total, spring wheat was cut to an estimated 24.3m tons
  • That reflects a smaller planted area, while grain crops have become less attractive for farmers vs oilseeds
• Yet winter wheat was raised to an estimated 56m tons
  • “Unusually, crop conditions improved after the winter period compared with Argus’ assessment in November,” expanding the area for harvest
  • Yields are seen steady but below the 10-year average, and could be cut if a drought persists
• NOTE: Forecasts don’t include crops grown in Crimea

 

Dryness set to shrink Australia’s 2025/26 wheat output by 16%, poll shows

• Victoria, S.Australia face dryness, affecting wheat planting
• Excessive rains in NSW, Queensland to challenge planting
• Global wheat prices expected to rise as supplies tighten
• Forecast in line with historic levels after previous bumper crop

Australia’s wheat production is likely to drop by 16% in the year starting July 1 from the previous year’s bumper crop as dryness in some regions reduces soil moisture, pulling forecasts in line with historical averages, traders and analysts said.

Farmers in the third-largest wheat exporter are poised to start planting this month against a backdrop of tightening world supplies that are expected to support prices.

While top producing states New South Wales and Western Australia have ample soil moisture, growers in Victoria and South Australia are likely to struggle with severe dryness, traders and analysts said.

“There is no sub-soil moisture across Victoria or South Australia. Last year they had very little in crop rain but at least we had sub-soil moisture going into planting,” said Stefan Meyer, head of a grains trading team at Sydney brokers StoneX.

“This year’s crop potential is looking around average or just above average and the market is telling us there is a problem.”

Prices of feed wheat in the spot market have jumped to A$385 ($241) per ton for June delivery in Adelaide, from $355 a ton since the harvest in November, he said, even as Chicago futures have eased in 2025.

Australia is likely to produce 28.6 million metric tons of wheat in 2025/26, an average of five analysts and traders polled by Reuters shows, down 16.1% from 34.1 million a year earlier. Forecasts range between 27 million and 30.752 million tons.

In March, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimated wheat output at 30.5 million tons in 2025/26.

“Victoria and South Australia have been completely dry for months now,” said Melbourne-based Palwinder Singh, of grains and oilseeds trading company Marina Commodities.

“There could be improvement if we see some rains in the next one to two months, but for now we are forecasting around 28 million tons of wheat output.”

Forecasts for lower wheat output in Australia, a key supplier to Asian importers including China and Indonesia, come as the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates world wheat inventories to drop to their lowest in nine years, at 260.08 million tons by the end of June.

“We expect (global) prices to rise higher from current levels through the course of 2025 due to a tightening of supplies going into the 2025/26 season,” BMI Research, a unit of Fitch Group, said in a note.

Top wheat exporter Russia is forecast to reduce overseas sales in the first half of 2025.

Excessive rains over the past week in New South Wales and Queensland could also pose a challenge for farmers, StoneX’s Meyer said.

“Parts of New South Wales and Queensland have had up to 200 mm (8 inches) of rain in the last 7 days, with many paddocks looking like a lake, and the next challenge in those areas now is being able to get machines on the fields to plant the winter wheat and barley.”

 

USDA to Release Over $500M in Funding for Renewable Fuels

Agricultural Secretary Brooke Rollins says that the USDA will release funding obligated under the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program — with 543 projects receiving $537 million to expand biofuels infrastructure across the country. While speaking at Elite Octane, an ethanol plant in Western Iowa, Rollins says that funding for the HBIIP will help support ethanol and biodiesel production. In its note, the agency calls biofuels “a bright spot and tremendous opportunity.” The announcement was praised by the Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol and biofuels producers nationwide.

 

WHEAT/CEPEA: Prices rise in South America, but drop in the US

Wheat prices continue to move up in Brazil and in Argentina. Increases have been registered during the first quarter of 2025, which is seasonally expected.

In the United States, on the other hand, values have been decreasing due to the trade war, high dollar levels (which leads US products to be less attractive) and impacts of the conflict in the Black Sea.

Thus, average wheat prices in March are the highest of this year in both Brazil and Argentina, but in the US, on the other hand, the May/25 contract traded at the CME Group hit the lowest level since the beginning of its negotiation, in mid-July 2022.

According to data from Cepea, between March 21 and 28, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved up 1.27% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2.9% in Paraná and 1.13% in Santa Catarina. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values rose 0.54% in Paraná, 2.28% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.29% in São Paulo, but decreased 0.4% in Santa Catarina. Dollar quotations upped 0.72% against Real in the same comparison, at BRL 5.758 on March 28.

In March (up to March 28), the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,519.57 per ton, upping 4.48% against February/25 and 12.2% in relation to that in March/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,395.67/ton, 5.4% up in one month and +9% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.621.61/ton, +0.2% and +21.5% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,424.88/ton in March, for a decrease of 0.3% compared to the month before and dropping 6.4% against that in the same month last year.

 

 

 

 

 

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