Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 5 cents and near 13.00. SMF is near 407.5. BOF is near 50.05. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.85. WH is up 7 cents and near 6.40. KWH is up 3 cents and near 6.59. MWH is up 5 cents and near 7.35. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher but tested $69 overnight. Gold is higher.
SF dropped below 13.00 support. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 1,000-1,800 mt vs 1,895 last week. Dalian soybean, palmoil and soyoil futures were lower. China Nov soybean imports were 7.85 mmt. Dec-Nov was 102.4 mmt. China Oct-Nov 13.1 mmt and up 13 pct vs ly. Dec imports are expected record high. Higher imports are at a time when crush margins are negative and Moody downgrade. Private estimates Brazil soybean crop near 155 mmt vs CONAB 162.8 and USDA 163. Soyoil futuers lower with funds adding to short position. Canada canola futures lowest level since last May.
CH is near 4.85. Talk of higher US and Ukraine supply weighed on futures. CONAB est Brazil corn crop at 119 mmt down 10 mmt vs USDA 129. Brazil export supply is on the decline plus farmers are not selling corn until more is known about new crop size. US domestic corn use is up while export are down. Weekly US export sales are est near 725-1,500 mt vs 1,927 last week. Weekly ethanol production was up 6 pct vs last week. Stocks are down 8 pct vs ly.
Wheat futures are higher. WH tested 6.49. Could be some selling near 6.50. USDA announced another 327 mt of US SRW to China. This makes total SRW sales near 145 mil bu and equal to USDA goal. US SRW end stocks are on the decline. KWH only 19 above WH. US plains, Italy, Spain and N Africa are dry. Overnight strikes on Danube port adds uncertainty to Ukraine exports.
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