Written Commentary
Ag Market View for May 17.24
May 17, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Futures are lower after corporate earnings reports disappointed.
Yesterday’s March consumer credit report showed an increase of only $6.3 billion when up $15 billion was expected.
The 9:00 central time March wholesale inventories report is anticipated to show a 0.4% decline.
The fundamentals and technicals are becoming more bullish.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher.
Interest rate differentials have turned neutral for the U.S. dollar.
German industrial production fell 0.4% month-over-month in March 2024, compared with market predictions of a 0.6% drop.
It is unlikely that the Bank of England will lower interest rates at its May 9 policy meeting. However, there is a growing probability that the BOE will cut interest rates at its June 20 meeting.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said he will not comment specifically on recent foreign exchange moves.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are steady to lower.
Tuesday’s auction of $58 billion in 3-year Treasury notes received strong bidding.
The Treasury will auction 10-year notes today.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Philip Jefferson at 10:00, Susan Collins at 10:45 and Lisa Cook at 12:30.
Earlier this week it was reported that U.S. banks saw a weakening in demand for industrial loans and a decline in household demand for credit in the first quarter of 2024, according to a Federal Reserve survey of senior loan officers.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 65% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
The fundamentals and technicals have improved for futures, especially at the long end of the yield curve.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
