Foundation For Bearish Price Year


Grains are mixed. SH is up 5 cents and near 12.29. SMH is near 365.6. BOH is near 48.49. CH is down 2 cents and near 4.44. WH is unch and near 5.96. KWH is up 2 cents and near 6.17. MWH is unch and near 6.99. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is sharply higher. Crude is marginally higher. China adding stimulus to their economy.


CH is near 4.44. USDA Jan report laid foundation for bearish price year without a late weather problem in Brazil or US Midwest weather. USDA raised US corn yield to new record despite dry summer. USDA increased Argentina, Ukraine and Brazil 2024 corn supply 24.5 mmt vs ly. One crop scout lowered his est of Brazil corn crop to 115 mmt vs USDA 127. He also raised Argentina 3 mmt to 56 vs USDA 55. Trade est US 2023/24 corn carryout at 2,263 mil bu vs USDA 2,162 and 2024/25 near 2,834.

SH is near 12.29. USDA Jan report laid foundation for bearish price year without a late weather problem in Brazil or US Midwest weather. USDA raised US soybean yield to 50.6 despite dry summer. USDA increased Argentina, Brazil 2024 soybean supply and US 2023 supply 43 mmt vs ly. One crop scout lowered Brazil soybean crop to 149 mmt vs USDA 157. He also raised Argentina 2 mmt to 52 vs USDA 50. Trade est US 2023/24 soybean carryout at 293 mil bu vs USDA 280 and 2024/25 near 405.

WH is near 5.96. World wheat imports are tepid. Cold weather offers uncertainty to World 2024 crops. USDA left US exports at 19.3 mmt, raised Australia .5 to 19.0, raised Russia 1.0 mmt to 51.0 and raised Ukraine 1.5 mmt to 14. USDA estimated US 2024 winter wheat acres at 34.4 million vs 36.7 ly. Trade est US 2024 wheat crop at 1,867 mil bu vs 1,812 ly and 2024/25 carryout near 672 vs 648 ly.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now