Written Commentary
Fundamentals Turn Supportive to Indices
May 6, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SK is down 3 cents and near 11.59. SMK is near 342.0. BOK is near 44.96. CK is unch and near 4.40. WK is unch and near 6.02. KWK is unch and near 6.31. MWK is unch and near 6.91. Stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold and copper are higher. US GDP was lower than expected. US personal income today.
SK is near 11.59. SN is near 11.76. SX is near 11,73. Some feel US farmers should increase cash sales near 11.80 SK. Dalian soybean, were higher. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. US soybean export commit is down 18 pct vs ly and vs USDA est of down 12 pct. Argentina harvest is near 26 pct. Crop is still est at 51 mmt but early north yields are lower than expected. So far, farmers have sold 12.8 mmt of crop vs 6.7 ly at this date. EU rapeseed prices lower and could be overbought but trade is accessing frost/freeze damage.
CK is near 4.40. CN is near 4.51. CZ is near 4.75. US farmers in fields before rains. Drier next week. US corn plantings could be near 20-25 pct. South America corn supply could be down due to Brazil weather and Argentina bug. Weekly US corn export commit is up 20 oct vs ly and USDA est of a 26 pct increase. Mexico was a buyer of US 2024/25 corn. Argentina corn crop harvest near 20 pct. Crop rated 17 G/E vs 20 last week. Some crop est are as low as 46 mmt vs USDA 55.
WK is near 6.02. KWK is near 6.31. MWK is near 6.91. Black Sea is dry. W EU is wet. US south plains is dry but could see showers over next 10 days. This has triggered some profit taking overnight. Some feel US farmers should increase cash sales near 6.35-6.40 WK. US wheat export commit is near ly vs USDA est of a 4 pct drop. Talk EU wheat crop could be near 4 year low. End stocks down to 12 mmt vs 20 ly.
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