Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures closed at record highs yesterday. Recent gains are due to better than expected third quarter corporate earnings reports and despite ongoing supply chain challenges and elevated inflationary pressures.
The Federal Open Market Committee’s November meeting will take place from Tuesday to Wednesday followed by a policy statement and a press conference. The central bank is expected to announce a tapering of its $120 billion a month in asset purchases.
The longer-term fundamental and technical aspects remain supportive for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
U.S. dollar index futures are higher today as interest rate differential expectations remain supportive to the greenback. Higher prices are likely at least up until tomorrow’s FOMC policy statement.
The IHS Markit euro zone manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 58.3 in October when 58.5 was forecast.
The Reserve Bank of Australia scrapped the 0.1% yield target on April 2024 government bonds at its policy meeting today and omitted its prior projection that interest rates were unlikely to increase until 2024. Policymakers indicated the central bank will continue to buy government bonds at a pace of A$4.0 billion a week until at least mid-February 2022.
The Bank of England is expected to increase interest rates when it meets on Thursday.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Economists expect the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to announce it will begin winding down its asset-buying program but leave interest rates unchanged. The fed funds target range currently stands at zero to 25 basis points.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers today due to the communications blackout period ahead of the November 2-3 FOMC policy meeting.
Expect higher prices for the 30-year Treasury bond futures after the FOMC meeting is out of the way.
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