Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Nov 29.23
November 29, 2023
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower.
The main events today are the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement at 1:00 central time and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 1:30.
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady at a 22-year high of 5.25-5.50% for a second meeting, while leaving open the possibility of another increase as soon as December.
The Automated Data Processing, Inc. employment report for October showed a 113,000 increase when up 145,000 was expected.
The 8:45 central time October U.S. manufacturing PMI is anticipated to be 50.
There are three 9:00 central time reports. The October Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is predicted to be 49. The September construction spending report is estimated to show an increase of 0.4% and the September job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) is expected to be 9.375 million.
Gains are likely to be limited by the uncertainties of the situation in the Mideast
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is higher as a result of mostly weaker economic reports out of Europe.
The Nationwide House Price Index in the U.K. dropped by 3.3% year-on-year in October 2023, compared with predictions of a 4.8% decrease and September’s 5.3% decline.
The Bank of England will hold its policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
A Swiss PMI fell to 40.6 in October 2023, which is down from September’s 44.9 and well below the market expectation of 45.0.
The Japanese yen advanced when Japan’s top currency diplomat warned of potential intervention to support the yen.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Treasury supply remains an overhanging bearish influence.
Financial futures markets are now predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its policy meeting today.
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