Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 18.24
April 18, 2024
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There are no major Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 42% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting, and there is a 58% chance of a 25 basis point increase.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher due to reports that an agreement to increase the debt ceiling may be close.
Durable goods orders in April increased 1.1% when a decline of 1.1% was expected.
Personal income in April increased 0.4% as anticipated, and personal consumption expenditures were up 0.8%, which compares to the estimated 0.4% gain.
The 9:00 central time May consumer sentiment index is estimated to be 58.0.
Stock index futures have performed well in 2023 despite the debt ceiling impasse and an ongoing hawkish Federal Reserve.
CURRENCY FUTURES
Although lower today, the U.S. dollar has advanced since early May due to the belief that U.S. interest rates could stay elevated for longer than previously thought.
Retail sales in the U.K. increased by 0.5% from a month earlier in April, partially recovering from a 1.2% decline in March and exceeding market estimates of 0.3% growth.
Retail sales in Australia were unchanged in April from March. Analysts predicted 0.2% growth.
The Tokyo core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, increased by an annualized rate of 3.2% in May. This was lower than expectations for a 3.3% increase.
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