Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 3 cents near 13.63. SX is up 2 cents and near 13.55. SMU is near 358.9. BOU is near 64.21. CU is down 1 cent and near 5.49. CZ is unch and near 5.40. WU is up 8 cents and near 6.42. KWU is up 5 cents and near 6.17. MWU is up 4 cents and near 8.66. US stocks are mixed in front of Fed Chairman comments and Bank earnings. Crude is lower. US Dollar is lower. Democrats approve $3.5 trillion relief plan. Will pay for it by raising corporate taxes to 28 pct from 21 and capital gains tax to 43 from 24.
For the month to date wheat prices are down 37 3/4 in SRW, down 42 1/4 in HRW, up 14 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 48; Soybeans down 45 1/2; Soymeal down $21.90; Soyoil up 0.55.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 11 yuan ; Soymeal up 10; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 10; Corn up 28, Malaysian Palm is up 52. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 52 ringgit (+1.31%) at 4029
There is rain today in E NE. This rains moves into S and E IA today. ND,SD and MN are dry. Next week most of ND,SD,MN,IA and C IL will be hot and dry. This could last into early August. ND spring wheat, feed grains and oilseed crops will be stressed even more. Same could be said about Canada crops. Managed funds still on sidelines waiting for more US weather data and USDA WOB August report.
USDA WOB numbers did not increase US corn demand as needed. Brazil and Argentina are expected to export 27 mmt of corn July-Sep. Some feel that may be 10 mmt or 400 mil bu too high. Will that loss demand shift to US? Lower Brazil crop will also limit exports into early 2022. US fob corn $288 vs $222 in Argentina. Hot/dry weather raising concern about Ukraine corn crop.
Soybean futures supported by higher soyoil values. Soyoil is following higher canola oil prices. Canada canola crop could be closer to 16 mmt vs WOB 20.2. Winnipeg RSO near $907. Matif near $547. China Dalian SBO and palmoil prices are higher.
Canada wheat crop could drop to 21 mmt from USDA WOB 31.5. There is also talk that rain is delaying Europe wheat harvest and raising concern about quality. There is also talk that Russia wheat crop size is dropping due to hot/dry weather. US HRW fob is near $288. Baltic $260, Romania $237, Russia $237.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 1,000 soymeal, and bought 2,000 soybeans; 3,000 soyool and 6,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net short 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 214,000 Corn; net long 84,000 Soybeans; net long 23,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 60,000 Soyoil.
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