Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 17.24
April 17, 2024
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The Federal Reserve‘s Beige Book on the economy will be released at 1:00.
This book is produced approximately two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. On each occasion, a different Federal Reserve district bank compiles evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts.
Federal Reserve speakers today are Susan Collins at 7:50 and at 11:20, Patrick Harker at 12:30 and Philip Jefferson at 12:30.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 34% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its June 14 policy meeting, and there is a 66% chance of a 25 basis point increase.
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower as traders follow the progress on efforts to increase the debt ceiling.
The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill today, after it was cleared Tuesday in the House Rules Committee by a 7-6 majority. If the bill passes the House, it will then go to the Senate for approval.
Mortgage applications declined for a third consecutive week and fell 3.7% in the week ended May 26, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications to refinance a home loan sank 6.9%, and those to purchase a home fell 2.5%.
The 8:45 central time May Chicago PMI is expected to be 47.0.
The 9:00 April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is anticipated to be 9.35 million.
Stock index futures have performed well in 2023 despite a variety of bearish news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is higher.
The German Preliminary May consumer price index declined 0.1% on the month when up 0.3% was predicted, and annualized the consumer price index was up 6.1% when a gain of 6.5% was estimated.
German unemployment increased less than expected in May. The number of people out of work increased by 9,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.573 million. Analysts had expected an increase of 15,000.
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