Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Apr 26.24
April 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
S&P 500 and Dow futures advanced to record highs.
Recent gains are linked to upbeat earnings, which are outweighing inflation fears.
Of the companies that have reported earnings results so far for the third quarter, 84% surprised on the upside, according to Refinitiv.
The 8:45 central time October flash composite purchasing managers’ Index is expected to be 60.7. The flash composite purchasing managers’ Index provides an early estimate of current private sector output by combining information obtained from surveys from approximately 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies.
The highlight today will likely be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at the Bank of International Settlements at 10:00.
The longer-term fundamental and technical aspects remain supportive for stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is near a nine-day downtrend line that I think will soon be penetrated on the upside.
As we get closer to the November 3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, traders are likely to refocus their attention to prospects of the Federal Reserve tapering its $120 billion a month in asset-purchases.
The IHS Markit euro zone composite PMI fell to 54.3 in October, from 56.2 in the previous month and was below market expectations of 55.2.
The IHS Markit Germany composite PMI fell to 52.0 in October, from 55.5 in the previous month and was well below market forecasts of 54.0.
Retail sales in the U.K. unexpectedly dropped 0.2% month-to-month in September, following a downwardly revised 0.6% fall in August, and compared to forecasts of a 0.5% increase.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Mary Daly of the Federal Reserve will speak at 9:00.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s “GDPNow” model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 was 0.5% on October 19, which is down from 1.2% growth on October 15. The next “GDPNow” update will be released on Wednesday, October 27.
The next leg up for the 30-year Treasury bond futures will likely be after the next FOMC meeting on November 3 is out of the way.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
