Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Jobless claims in the week ended November 4 were 217,000 when 220,000 were expected.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak at 1:00 central time at a panel discussion on monetary policy for the International Monetary Fund.
Powell’s comments yesterday at another conference did not provide any indication of the course of monetary policy.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar was higher after Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said early today that interest rates should stay higher for longer and that the fight against inflation is still ongoing.
Minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting acknowledged that current conditions are making progress towards achieving the central bank’s 2.0% inflation target.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Yesterday’s $40 billion auction of 10-year notes received a moderate level of demand. Also, Tuesday’s sale of $48 billion of 3-year notes went as expected.
Today the Treasury will auction 30-year bonds.
In addition to Fed Chair Powell, other Federal Reserve speakers today are Raphael Bostic at 8:30, Thomas Barkin at 10:00 and Kathleen O’Neill Paese at 11:00.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 90% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting, and there is a 10% probability of a 25 basis point increase.
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