Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Wednesday futures rally linked to short covering before long Holiday weekend and ongoing Trump tweets. US stocks are higher and trying to recover from Wednesday steep losses on talk of good trade talks with Japan. Italy in Washington today. US will try to use negotiation with over 70 countries to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their country. Trump administration asking Supreme Court to approve hiring and firing US Fed Chairman. Crude is higher on new US sanction against Iran. US Dollar is higher but near 6 month low. Gold is lower on profit taking. CBOT grains will be closed Friday for Easter holiday.
SOYBEANS
SN is near 10.51. Dalian soybean, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Soymeal near 2 week low. China is building World largest port in Brazil and hiring new farm employees. Slowly, World soybean trade is changing from US to Brazil. Brazil soybean premiums are lower on reduced China buying. US farmers and traders will watch closely possible US and China talks. Global demand for US soybean, soymeal and soyoil exports and US summer weather will be key to futures price direction. Matif and Canada rapeseed prices higher. US soybean export sales are est at 100-800 mt vs 172 last week.
CORN
CN is near 4.90. Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil corn futures near 3 month low on improved Safrina crop outlook and concern Brazil is losing exports to US. Some feel final feed and residual could even be lower which raise carryout to closer to 1,500. US Midwest rains offers resistance to futures. South and east rains could slow plantings there. Weekly US ethanol production was higher than last year. Stocks were also higher than last year. US corn export sales are est at 600-1,800 mt vs 785 last week.
WHEAT
WN is near 5.62. KWN is near 5.78. MWN is near 6.20. US south plains forecast is drier. US south and east rains could stress US SRW crop. Matif futures were lower on talk of lower demand. Russia remains dry. US futures in carry with Managed funds record short. US cash basis levels are inverted. This raises concern about futures as a hedge tool. US wheat export sales are est at -100 to 200 vs 107 last week.
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