Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 2 cents and near 12.41. SMZ is near 330.3. BOZ is near 61.20. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.56. WZ is down 1 cent and near 7.58. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.80. MWZ is up 5 cents and near 10.27.
US stocks are higher. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher. Gold and copper are higher.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil lower. Matif wheat higher and new highs. China policy on lower coal prices has coal down 50 pct. This may be weighing on Crude oil prices. China also cracked down on excessive commodity trading speculation. May weighed on GSI Index. World ocean freight is down. This may have triggered China to buy 6 US soybean cargoes, 3-5 Brazil. China daily soymeal trade was high at 670 mt. China hog profit margins have improved.
Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 1,250-2,000 vs 2,878 last week. More US sales needed. Matif rapeseed prices slightly lower but new weekly high close. Canada canola new highs and near 986.
Weekly corn futures high near 5.63 vs 5.38 last week. Rally due to delayed US harvest, ethanol use. Corn futures also higher following higher fertilizer especially nitrogen prices. EU switching to SB vs corn. Weekly US corn export sales estimated near 800-1.300 mt vs 1,273 lw. Some adding 300 to US exports.
Weekly US ethanol date suggest 200-300 mil bu corn use. Talk of higher 2022 ethanol use for jet fuel. Interesting that higher cost of plantings could drop US 2022 corn acres at a time when supply is growing.
US 2022 soybean/corn ratio new low and near 2.25. This favors less US 2022 corn planted acres. USDA Nov 9 estimate of US 2021 corn and soybean yield key to carryout changes and prices direction.
Some month end KC wheat futures profit taking. For the month KC wheat up 60 cents. Egypt bought Romania, Russia Ukraine wheat $456.50-$361.90. US HRW prices competitive Jan forward. World wheat prices supported by talk of dry Russia weather. Matif wheat futures making new highs.
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