Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 5 cents and near 13.36. SMF is near 436.5.. BOF is near 50.93. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.82. WH is up 1 cent and near 5.78. KWH is up 4 cents and near 6.15. MWH is up 2 cents and near 7.16. US stocks are lower.. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US consumer increase buying up 7.5 pct over ly mostly on line on Black Friday.
SF is near 13.36. On light volume soybean, soymeal, soyoil futures were lower on Friday. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil prices were lower. There was some new tech selling with SF below 13.50. 13.22 is key support. SMF also traded below 434. BOF also saw sharp trade lower and increase selling below 50.92. Some blame the selloff to lower US weekly soybean and soymeal export sales with Brazil still exporting old crop soybeans. There is also normal weather in Argentina. World vegoil prices continue to slide lower on lower demand.
CH is near 4.82. Corn futures also saw new tech selling on Friday as CH rejected the 20 day moving average. CH has been in a 4.80-5.00 range for most of November. US export sales continues to be below pace to reach USDA goal. Drop in energy prices has also weighed on corn futures, Domestic basis remains firm. US farmers and Argentina farmer continues to reduce cash sales. Despite better Brazil weather, Some are lowering Brazil corn crop to 125 mmt vs USDA 129.
Wheat futures are higher. Futures are oversold. There remain some uncertainty over potential Ukraine and Russia wheat exports. There is talk of a Ukraine bill to raise export taxes which could halt exports. US HRW crop areas are dry. WH is now near the lower end of the recent range of 5.70-5.90.
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