Dollar Likely to Trend Higher


U.S. stock index futures are lower, as crude oil prices climbed to their highest level in seven years.

In addition, the bears on this market point to prospects of central banks pulling back stimulus, concerns about the pace of the global economic recovery and the ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.

On the bullish side is the historically low fed funds rate of zero to 25 basis points.

The longer-term fundamental and technical aspects remain supportive for stock index futures.


The U.S. dollar index advanced and is near a one-year high, recovering from pressure on Friday that was linked to the on balance weak U.S. employment data.

Interest rate differential expectations remain supportive to the greenback, and higher prices are likely at least up until the November 3 Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting.

The euro currency is lower and is near its weakest level since July 2020. Traders anticipate a 10 basis-point rate hike from the European Central Bank by the end of 2022.

The British pound is higher on the belief that the Bank of England could hike interest rates  sooner-than-expected.

The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since December of 2018, while the Bank of Japan is expected to continue its ultra-accommodative monetary policies.


Futures are mostly lower on the belief that the Federal Open Market Committee will announce details of a tapering of its asset-purchase program at its November policy meeting despite Friday’s  weak on balance U.S. employment report.

However, at that meeting the FOMC will probably add caveats to the language to leave itself room to alter the tapering schedule if the economy were to underperform.

Charles Evans of the Federal Reserve will speak at 5:00 central time.

I believe a tapering  from the FOMC will be a dovish tapering with any reduction being small.

The next leg up for the 30-year Treasury bond futures will likely be after the next FOMC meeting on November 3 is out of the way.

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