Written Commentary
Ag Market View for Dec 11.24
December 11, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures fell Tuesday after a five-day winning streak.
Retail sales in July fell 1.1% when down 0.2% was expected and retail sales excluding vehicles declined 0.4% when an increase of 0.2% was anticipated.
July industrial production increased 0.9% when up 0.4% was predicted and July capacity utilization was 76.1%, which compares to the estimated 75.7%
The 9:00 central time June business inventories report is estimated to show a 0.8% increase and the 9:00 August housing market index is predicted to be 80.
At 12:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 12:30.
Despite lower prices this morning, the fundamentals and technical aspects remain positive for U.S. stock index futures.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is higher due to a safe-haven flows of funds.
Euro zone quarterly economic growth was confirmed at 2.0% in the second quarter of 2021, following two consecutive periods of contraction. Year-on-year, the GDP expanded 13.6% in the second quarter.
The number of employed persons in the euro area increased 0.5% on the quarter in the three months to June of 2021, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the previous period and was in line with market expectations. Year-on-year, employment increased 1.8%, rebounding from a 1.8% decline in the first quarter of 2021.
Housing starts in Canada fell 3.2% over a month earlier to 272,176 units in July of 2021, compared to market expectations of 275,000 units, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. This was the lowest reading since last December.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The weak retail sales report supported futures.
Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve will speak at 2:45.
Futures are holding up well despite all of the tapering talk. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest the central bank could soon taper its asset purchases.
Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expects to see enough job growth by the September policy meeting to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases.
The interest rate futures markets have been indicating since May clues about the state of the global economy and inflation with the U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening.
A flattening yield curve suggests a slower rate of global economic growth in the future.
Some traders are questioning why the 30-year Treasury bond futures are substantially off of their May lows if there is the need for an imminent tapering of the Fed’s asset-purchase program.
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