Written Commentary
Global Ag News For May 21.2025
May 21, 2025
CRUDE OIL
May Crude Oil is higher this morning, drawing support off US military strikes against the Houthis on Saturday over the group’s attacks against Red Sea shipping. Also supportive was some positive demand news out of China for a change. Official data released by China showed the nation’s crude oil throughput in January and February was 119.17 ,million metric tons (14.74 million barrels per day), up 2.1% from last year. Chinese retail sales also improved in January-February, which is viewed as supportive to oil consumption. One worker was killed and three other were injured in an explosion at an oil refinery in Russia’s city of Ryazan. Official reports said depressurization during scheduled work. This plant has been targeted by Ukrainian drones several times in the past. President Trump said he plans to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss ending the Ukraine war.
NATURAL GAS
May Natural Gas is lower this morning, as it consolidates last week’s steep declines from contract highs, which it achieved off peak concern about Canadian tariffs and the potential to interrupt Canadian natural gas supply into the US. Those concerns eased after the Ontario Premier met with US officials last week. The weather forecast is generally mild; the 6-10-day has normal to above normal temperatures across the lower 48. The 8-14 day shows some below normal temps in the eastern Midwest, but normal or much above normal elsewhere.
PRODUCT MARKETS
May RBOB gapped higher overnight and appears to be leading the complex today. Last week’s EIA report showed a stronger than expected drawdown in gasoline stocks last week and a healthy implied demand. Seasonal, spring break driving may also be inducing demand.
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