CPI Increases More Than Expected


Recent strength in stock index futures is primarily due to prospects of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.

The September consumer price index report showed a 0.4% increase when up 0.3% was expected and, the consumer price index excluding food and energy, advanced 0.3% as anticipated.

Jobless claims in the week ended October 7 were 209,000 as predicted.

The fundamental and technical factors are becoming more friendly to the bulls.


In the last two weeks the U.S. dollar has underperformed the news.

A safe-haven flow of funds has only marginally supported the U.S. dollar as prospects of a less hawkish Federal Reserve have undermined the greenback.

The U.K. economy grew by 0.2% month-over-month in August 2023, matching market estimates, after a revised 0.6% contraction in July.

Manufacturing output in the U.K. declined 0.8% month-on-month in August 2023, which is more than market expectations of a 0.4% fall but slowing from an upwardly revised 1.2% drop in July.

Japan’s core machinery orders fell for a second consecutive month in August. Orders declined 0.5% in August from the previous month. The median forecast was 0.4% growth. Core machinery orders are regarded as a barometer of capital expenditures in the coming six to nine months.


The Treasury will auction 30-year bonds.

Federal Reserve speakers today are Raphael Bostic at 12:00 and Susan Collins at 3:00.

The minutes from the September 20 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which were  released yesterday, had a hawkish tone. A majority of Fed officials indicated one more rate increase would likely be appropriate.

However, that was then, and this is now.

Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials reduced expectations of another interest rate hike this year.

Financial futures markets are now predicting there is a 92% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged and an 8% probability of a 25 basis point increase at its November 1 policy meeting.

The Federal Reserve’s target range for the fed funds rate currently is 5.25% to 5.50%.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore the latest edition of The Ghost in the Machine

Explore Now