Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures quickly advanced when the October consumer price index report was released. The October consumer price index was unchanged when a 0.1% increase was expected on a month-to-month basis, and on a year-to-year basis increased 3.2% when up 3.3% was anticipated.
The consumer price index excluding food and energy on a month-to-month basis was up 0.2% when a gain of 0.3% was predicted, and annualized was up 4.0% when up 4.1% was forecast.
The National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index edged lower for a third consecutive month to 90.7 in October 2023, which was the lowest since May, from 90.8 in September, but beating predictions of 90.5.
The October producer price index will be reported tomorrow and is anticipated to show a 0.1% advance.
S&P 500 futures broke out above a triple top formation on the daily chart.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar declined in the overnight trade, and there was additional pressure when the consumer price index was reported.
The euro zone ‘s third quarter gross domestic product declined 0.1% as expected.
German investor morale improved more than expected in November. The ZEW economic research institute said its economic sentiment index improved to 9.8 points from -1.1 points in October, beating forecasts. However, the assessment measuring the current situation in Germany was virtually unchanged, rising by 0.1 points to -79.8.
Regular pay in the U.K., which excludes bonus payments, increased 7.7% year-on-year in the three months to September 2023. This was in line with expectations and is under the 7.9% increase in the previous two periods, which was a record high rate.
A survey from National Australia Bank showed its index of business conditions edged up 1 point to +13 in October, while confidence fell 2 points to -2.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Federal Reserve speakers today are Michael Barr at 9:00, Loretta Mester at 10:00 and Austan Goolsbee at 11:45.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting. Prior to today’s consumer price index report there was a 14% probability of a 25 basis point increase.
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