Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are mixed to higher.
The 2:00 central time November consumer credit report is expected to show a $9.5 billion increase.
The fundamentals and technicals remain supportive to stock index futures longer term despite recent talk of a potentially less dovish Federal Reserve this year.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is a little lower.
Lower prices are likely for the U.S. dollar longer term.
German industrial orders increased less than expected in November as demand weakened. Industrial orders were up by 0.3% month-to-month on a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis when analysts had forecast a gain of 1.0%.
The economic sentiment indicator in the euro area improved to 96.4 in December 2023, which is up from the revised 94.0 in the previous month.
German exports increased by 3.7% in November compared with the previous month. This compares to the forecast of a 0.3% increase.
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland increased to 1.7% in December 2023 from 1.4% in the previous month and above market predictions of 1.5%.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note advanced to above 4.06%, holding at levels not seen since the middle of December.
Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will speak at 11:30.
Traders continue to believe the Fed will cut interest rates this year but not at the January meeting.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 5.0% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce its fed funds rate by 25 points at its January 31, 2024 policy meeting and a 95% probability of no change.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2021 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
