Written Commentary
Ag Market View for July 26.24
July 26, 2024
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SF is up 6 cents and near 13.96. SMH is near 444.5. BOH is near 51.94. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.95. WH is up 5 cents and near 6.03. KWH is up 5 cents and near 6.55. MWH is up and near 7.51. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US avoided Friday shutdown. China President XI is in US today.
Soybean futures near 13.96. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. US Oct NOPA crush is est near a record 187 mil bu. End of Oct NOPA soyoil stocks are est at 1,188 mil lbs and near Dec,2014 record low. SMZ-SMF spread near +18. Argentina crush still down and spread compares to 2014/15 when spread trade to +35. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices are sharply higher. Palmoil supported by higher exports.
Dec Corn futures traded as high as 4.80. CH is near 4.95. Commercials will soon bid of March. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. Central and north Brazil 6 day forecast is hot/dry. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. Brazil farmer has slowed cash sales due to weather. US corn export prices are competitive to Brazil but premium to Ukraine with Ukraine offering increase supply. Trade will be closely watching Argentina elections this weekend.
Wheat futures are higher. Black Sea weather is ok. Could be some US south plains HRW showers. N Africa could see needed rains next week. Russia still offering wheat exports at lower prices. Much talk about record large fund short in MWZ. In similar years, in 2010/11 futures rallied on short covering. In 2013/14 futures continues to trend lower. Lower US Dollar offers support to wheat futures.
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