Coffee Higher on Lower Colombia Output

COFFEE

May Coffee was higher early Friday, marking the fourth time in the past five sessions that it has reached a higher high than the previous day. Drier conditions in Brazil this week and a decline in Colombian production offer some support after the market experienced a steep selloff in February off expectation of a strong Brazilian crop for 2026 and as the market wound down once the high tariffs on the Brazilian coffee imports into the US were rescinded in late 2025. Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers Colombian reports that the nation’s coffee production totaled 869,000 bags in February, down from 893,000 in January and 1.361 million in February 2025. The 12-month total has fallen to 12.722 million, down 36% from this point a year ago and the lowest since August 2024.

COCOA

May Cocoa was near unchanged early Friday near the upper end of the range of the past five sessions. The moves to lower official farmgate prices by cocoa market regulators in Ivory Coast (CCC) and Ghana (COCOBOD) have at least provided a rationale for the market to put in a low. Prices had collapsed since the start of the year on reports of recently harvested crops backing up due to the high prices set by the regulators, and the possibility that the cocoa may finally get sold has at least offered the possibility that prices will stop falling. On the other hand, grind numbers for the 4^th quarter of 2025 pointed to low demand, due to high prices but also due to moves by confectioners to switch to cocoa and cocoa butter alternatives, and that may take some time to unwind.

SUGAR

May Sugar was higher early Friday after falling to its lowest level in more than two weeks on Thursday. Overnight, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) lowered its estimate for the nation’s 2025/26 sugar production to 28.3 million metric tons from an earlier forecast of 29.6 million. This follows a pattern established by from other groups that have cited reduced cane yields in key producing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka due to of abnormal weather patterns. Brazilian government data showed the nation exported 2.230 metric tons of sugar in February, up from 1.825 million in February 2025. The director of Dubai-based Al Khaleej Sugar, which has the world’s largest pot-based refinery and is located in the Persian Guld, said the that the plant is operating normally. The company is heavily dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for importing raw sugar and exporting a good portion of its product. The director said the company can use ports that lie outside the Strait if needed. He also said they have about two years of raw sugar reserves if they are not refined and exported outside the Gulf region and that the company can provide neighboring countries with sugar if needed. Sugar consultant Michael McDougall said that roughly 10% of the world’s raw sugar is imported and 5% of global refined sugar is exports through the Strait of Hormuz each year. Al Khaleej accounts for nearly 4% of the world’s annual imports of raw sugar and more than 4% of global refined exports, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the International Sugar Organization

COTTON

May Cotton was higher early Friday and was respecting Thursday’s low. The market was pressured on Thursday from a disappointing Export Sales report and concerns that the war in Iran will slow global economic growth and lower cotton demand. However, traders may be reluctant to push too much lower ahead of the monthly USDA supply/demand WASDE on Tuesday. The dollar was higher early Friday and was approaching Tuesday’s three-month high, and equity markets were lower but inside this week’s range. The market may also be reluctant to push lower ahead of the growing season, especially given the dry conditions across much of the US cotton belt.

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